3 Stories Of People Making Millions In Weird Ways

Martha Stewart, Poly Market Whale, and Ozempic - November 19, 2024 (4 months ago) • 01:01:23

This My First Million episode spotlights Martha Stewart's entrepreneurial journey and explores the implications of prediction markets using the 2024 US Presidential Election as a case study. Sam Parr details Stewart's transition from model to stockbroker, her catering business success, and her media empire's rise and fall. Shaan Puri analyzes a Poly Market whale's successful election bets based on a unique polling method, and discusses Vitalik Buterin's perspective on information finance.

  • Martha Stewart's Rise and Fall: Sam Parr recounts Martha Stewart's career trajectory, highlighting her early success as a stockbroker, her pivot to a catering business, and the subsequent creation of her media empire. Her perfectionism and brand-building acumen led to her becoming the first self-made female billionaire, but legal troubles and changing market dynamics contributed to her company's decline.

  • Ozempic for Sleep: Shaan Puri introduces the concept of a drug that mimics the "short sleeper gene," potentially reducing the need for sleep without adverse health effects. He cites research by Isaac Freeman, a PhD student at MIT, who suggests this could offer significant longevity benefits.

  • Poly Market Whale and the 2024 Election: Shaan Puri discusses the accuracy of prediction markets versus traditional polling in the context of the 2024 Presidential Election. He analyzes how a French "whale" profited by $80 million on Poly Market by using a unique "neighbor method" polling strategy.

  • Vitalik Buterin's Info Finance: Shaan Puri explores Vitalik Buterin's concept of "info finance," highlighting the use of prediction markets as valuable sources of information. He describes potential applications in various fields, including corporate decision-making and scientific peer review.

Transcript:

Start TimeSpeakerText
Sam Parr
Alright sean there's a documentary that ari and I ari and I were texting about did you see it it was called martha it was on netflix it was about martha stewart
Shaan Puri
I haven't seen it I actually don't know really anything about her
Sam Parr
great this is so great because martha stewart was a
Shaan Puri
beast I I really couldn't tell you 5 things about martha stewart so like was she kind of the first influencer like did a celebrity influencer who then started launching products or what's the story
Sam Parr
martha stewart was a killer she was a total shark she was way sharkier if you only know her as her put together image of like this like housewife who cooks everything I'm gonna say is gonna blow your mind because she was a total shark so I'm gonna give you a little bit of her background so basically she's born and raised up in the east coast she goes to columbia university while she's going to school she becomes a model because she was a cute woman when she was young
Shaan Puri
yeah yeah wow she was fantastic yeah good
Sam Parr
very very pretty woman yeah go martha she gets married at at a young age like 19 or 20 years old but graduates columbia and her father-in-law helps her get a job as a stockbroker and by the way she studied architectural like history or something like that at columbia nothing to do with stocks and so at the age of like 24 25 she gets this job and you're probably wondering how on earth did martha stewart become a stockbroker
Shaan Puri
well I am wondering
Sam Parr
when her father-in-law first met her he was like you have this like it factor like you are so charming you are so put together because she had this vibe at a very young age in her twenties like she dressed it fantastically she was very charismatic she was clearly driven and hardworking and this small like 10 person operation that was a stock broking company brokerage they needed a saleswoman a salesperson and it was all men at the time I think this was in the sixties it was all dudes it was a very male dominated industry but she comes into this interview and eventually works there and they comment on how her she's dressed like perfectly it's like so perfectly that you're sort of intimidated when you first meet her because she's like perfectly put together but then she's like really charming and warm and you're like oh I I like you and so she starts like as a salesperson basically at the stock company basically working at with with with clients and getting them to like trust them and things like that and she kills it and so listen to this at the age of 26 according to this documentary she said she was making a $135,000 a year which equivalent today is $1,000,000 a year at the age of 26 as a stockbroker pretty crazy that she went from being a model to a stockbroker in that short amount of time and she kills it and she does it for like 6 or 7 years like it's like a legitimate career for her and she suggests that one of our clients buy this stock that was like a dollar and it went to like $10 so it killed it then they bought a little bit more and it goes something huge like to 50 it was like this massive stock and it made these clients all this money but then the $50 stock goes right back down to like 8 or $10 and so technically her client had still made a bunch of money but that roller coaster ride of like making a little bit of money then making a ton of money than losing a ton of money it like left her kind of distraught and so she bailed because of that like journey and so she quit and so in the when she's like 30 years old or late twenties she moves out to actually where I'm living now westport connecticut she was like you know I wanna have a kid I wanna like try this housewife life whatever and do this thing and she moves out here and she sits around for a very short amount of time and she's like alright I gotta do something like I can't just sit here and so they buy this like kinda shitty house that she like totally turns around and redoes the whole thing all by herself she paints it she builds this beautiful garden she learns how to raise goats and chickens and like plant her own garden and like creates this amazing like a state out in westport connecticut which now it's fancy back then it wasn't particularly fancy and so eventually she gets really into this and she's like you know I kinda like this housewife life what if I start hosting some dinner parties and she creates these lavish amazing dinner parties and eventually all these rich guys who come are like hey do you wanna like cater my party and so that's what she starts doing and so she builds a business as a caterer that she said made her a millionaire and her whole shtick back then for this catering business was she goes I'm gonna make everything by scratch and so west fork connecticut we're about an hour and 10 minutes from new york city at this time people start realizing that she could actually operate on like 3 or 4 hours of sleep and so she would go to like catering the catering business by the way it's like that's like the hardest thing on earth right you know it's brutal it's a really hard business to pull off and so she was famous for going to the farmer's markets in new york at 4 am getting all of her produce and then going in the morning and baking all of her food and so her famous saying as her catering business was basically I make everything from scratch and not only does she just make stuff from scratch one time she saw this brochure that like was doing a recreation of like the pilgrim's thanksgiving and there was like a basket of fruit that was like overflowing and she was like that's what I'm gonna do and so she was famous for creating these like charcuterie boards of like overflowing meats and fruits and she said something that was actually really inspiring she was like I wanted to turn this into experience and like I wanted to make this like fruit board she was like it sounds trivial but that was my art and I was gonna make like these baskets of fruit overflow with strawberries to show that this table is where like generosity like like you know like in abundance and all this stuff and it's a massive hit she builds us into a big business to the.
Sam Parr
Where a few years in she goes and she caters a I think it was like penguin publishing or something like that like one of these publishers party she caters it and it's a really big deal you know she's doing like the met all these museum and art museums in new york and this is a big deal that she's doing this catering company or this publishing company and they start talking to her and they're like dude you are amazing do you want to write a cookbook for us and so she does and it takes her like a few years like 3 or 4 years because she's super hands on on writing this book and they were like hey so we're what you do is cookbook just put in a bunch of recipes and some black and white photos and she was a nobody and she goes not a chance we're doing colored photos and we're actually gonna do like 500 photos and just give me the budget I'll go ahead and I'm gonna like hire a photographer friend and we're gonna go and like organize all these photos and take all these of lavish photos at my house that I made because we're gonna make this like the martha stewart cookbook where at the time typically it had just been recipes she was like no we're gonna add in about like my lifestyle we're gonna have these photos one of the photos and this is like her kitchen look how lavish that is like what do you see
Shaan Puri
the the most full kitchen I've ever seen there's literally 9,000 pots and pans hanging above above her and then she's surround she's like her kitchen looks like a charcuterie board it looks like an overflowing charcuterie board but she's one of she's like a piece of salami in the middle
Sam Parr
and that's like the whole her whole shtick basically she she says this she's like I'm gonna sell perfection because she was she was a perfectionist she was actually a pain in the ass to work for
Shaan Puri
and the first book was called entertaining and it was about like entertaining guests basically
Sam Parr
yeah and like creating an atmosphere of like warmth and things like that and it was a massive hit it sold 650,000 copies what what do you think I see
Shaan Puri
your I feel like nick gray is the new martha stewart I'm just gonna put that out there what nick gray is doing with the 2 hour cocktail party I think he's just a he's just a young martha stewart right now
Sam Parr
yeah well and she was like one of the early influencers because this was in the eighties this is when like mass media is really becoming a thing and it's a massive hit and so like these women buy these books because it's not just about cooking it's about like being better being aspirational like perfecting a craft and she sold the shit out of this lifestyle and it was her lifestyle lifestyle and she basically said in the documentary she was like I had visions early on of creating this martha stewart media company all about me because I'm great like I am what she like she's like she was very confident about that opening up the business plan like alright martha stewart's media company confident about that
Shaan Puri
opening up the business plan like alright martha stewart's media company it's about me next page because I'm great next page
Sam Parr
but she I mean she was so like there's a lot of bad stuff that has gone on like basically her husband cheats on her she cheats on her husband her daughter's like dude she was a cold mom people complain working for her they're like dude she's just a fucking asshole and she was like throughout the documentary they get her on camera being rude to her employees and so yeah she's like a perfectionist and she she she was like I'm not I'm not sorry for that I'm a perfectionist
Shaan Puri
wait so this forward through the business side so she does the cookbook cookbook's a hit
Sam Parr
massive hit and eventually one thing leads to another where kmart which was just like kmart today back then it was like you know lower lower status store she partners with them to create like a line of bedding and people are like shocked they're like why would this upscale woman do this and it turned out to be a great move it was really cool and then she partners with time and she creates a series of magazines and she's the editor of the magazine it goes really well but she's like I wanna own this son bitch and so she raises $85,000,000 and she buys the magazine and 3 or 4 years later takes it public and I showed the financials of her business it was base I think it was called martha stewart omnimedia basically the she buys the business out of like something like 3 years later takes it public the in year 3 it's doing a $130,000,000 a year in 1997 a $130,000,000 in revenue and it's a behemoth of a business so basically they've got the tv show they have tons and tons of magazines they have merchandising like the kmart deal it just crushes it and it goes public and she becomes the first ever self made women's billionaire in in america and just annihilates it but then something really bad happens
Shaan Puri
hey let's take a quick break I wanna tell you about this report that hubspot just put together they went and talked to 500 entrepreneurs everybody from solopreneurs just one person just crushing it on their own 2 people that are scaling up with the team and they wanted to create a entrepreneurship trend support so they wanted to talk about the strategies they're using the problems they're going through and how they're overcoming them and it's a data pack report that they're putting together for free that you can check out so if you're looking for a little help on the entrepreneurship side you're looking for that inspiration or maybe a better insight on how that you could do better check it out the link is in the description below
Sam Parr
so basically she's worth like 4 100 500 600,000,000 at this. Because the stock was going up and down apparently she calls her stockbroker she's like hey I want you to sell this one stock so she sells this one stock and it she made like $30 off of it turns out a lot of people think that it was insider trading and so the doj like interviews her and figures out this whole thing and does this massive investigation turns out the charges of of of insider trading are dropped they're like you did not insider trade however
Shaan Puri
so sorry she sold her own stock or she sold a different stock
Sam Parr
just a different just a a stock
Shaan Puri
and only 30 k so why was it a big deal anyway
Sam Parr
it was a so it was a big deal because we're just we're we're basically there was like enron and a bunch of things like this were happening at the time and the doj was like any insider trading any like corruption we're gonna go we're going like really hard against all this and so she like sell some stock it's suspicious turns out that the the ceo of this of the company whose stock she sold he was in fact corrupt and they're like but you knew him what was going on you knew that this drug wasn't gonna pass you sold the stock whatever the doj investigates her and they're like you actually that looks clean it looks like you didn't know anything however when we interviewed you you told us some small fact about how you were on a schedule to sell this stock turns out you weren't on a schedule and so you lied to us and so we are gonna put you in federal penitentiary for 5 months for lying not for insider trading but for lying about this like somewhat not that big of a deal fact and so kinda bullshit kinda not like she did lie but like she got 5 months in the federal penitentiary and she's like 50 years old and at the time when all this trial shit happens that's when we realized that martha stewart she's she's kinda bad she's she's she's she's she's bad because there's all these stories where the it comes out she's a little rude and so for example her stockbroker has this assistant who would talk to martha mostly and like there's examples of like of the stockbroker's assistant being like dude she was the meanest person ever for example one time she called and I had to put her on hold and I go back to talk to her she goes hey if you don't change that waiting music that tacky waiting music by the next time I call I'm gonna have you fired and just hung up just like hung up like there's like repeatedly like a bunch of stories where she just didn't she was not like very kind to people and that kind of swayed public opinion of her she goes to jail for 5 months and it sucked it sucked for her it was not good she gets out of jail and she ends up doing justin bieber's roast which again changed public perception of her because at this.
Sam Parr
Everyone was like man it's kind of fun seeing martha stewart kind of downfall because she was the perfect woman like f her it's kinda nice like it brings brings me up to see this person push her down
Shaan Puri
so perfect yeah
Sam Parr
but she roast justin bieber and she's just like hilarious she talks about how she like shank bitches in prison and how she like made this shank with just like a piece of pencil and some bubblegum and you could do one too at home I'll show you how like it like kind of humanized her it was pretty cool but her getting arrested it decimated the stock so she was like on the documentary she was like I think I would have been worth $10,000,000,000 but when I got arrested my stock went way down we they ended up selling the company for like $300,000,000 and it was kind of like the it could have been like a great company but it kind of wasn't however throughout this whole thing this whole documentary martha like has shown time and time again she's a bad bad woman like in in in all sense of the word as in like she's brutal she's smart she's conniving
Shaan Puri
her stock is only going up in your books that's all I'm hearing all I'm hearing is that let's just summarize good looking lady already off to a good start then goes from model to sales / stockbroker alright amazing one interesting thing that's cool 2 interesting things you have my attention 3rd interesting thing self made and first kind of major trad wife influencer does the cookbooks does it her way is ruthless with the details is a has has has a no nonsense attitude she's a stickler these are all I mean these are your safe words dude like these are all the things that you enjoy so this is really up your alley like I I mean like how do you feel about martha stewart right now because it sounds like even when she's bad it just made her more good in your books
Sam Parr
sorta I mean she paid the price so basically like her husband left her her kids like she's got a bad relationship with her children because of the way she behaved and she basically she's 83 now by the way I didn't realize how old she was and like she hasn't had a relationship since her husband and her broke up so she paid the price she there's a cost to be the boss you know and she paid it but she is in fact the boss so I do have a lot of respect for her and I also think that there's downsides to achieve what she achieved but I'm shocked you didn't know that did you know any of this like how she's like not really
Shaan Puri
I knew she had like a cookbook or was on tv and that she sold like stuff to women that's kind of the the extent of what I knew about martha stewart
Sam Parr
dude she's great and so another big takeaway and I'll wrap up here is how big of a company you could start and and have just off the back of one person like it was the martha stewart brand and she was like into that like a lot of people would be fearful of like having that burden having that under your back of like literally a 1,000 + employees and 1,000,000,000 of dollars of of value and she was totally into it and she loved it and I love those types of personalities
Shaan Puri
right but it sounds like this company wasn't that good and your numbers table here you know by 2,001 it says total revenue 295,000,000 net income 21,000,000 which is obviously that's good that's not nothing but that's not a $10,000,000,000 company to make you know 21,000,000 a year of of net income and then it says from 2,003 to 2,015 which is like 3 presidents it says consecutive annual losses every year except for 1 year so was this really a good business or was this actually just a lot of work for nothing
Sam Parr
no it was good I mean you have to think of a few things 1 you know it was making $300,000,000 a year in revenue and a lot of it came from publishing and publishing means subscription magazines so like that's like pretty good but then the internet came and just completely like obliterated that industry I mean that was like magazines are probably like the worst industry to be in so like yeah there's a lot of what ifs and the timing was such that she got arrested and also like you know amazon was created and the internet was created so yeah there's a lot of like what ifs but
Shaan Puri
I feel like if she was I think she was like 30 years too early like I think if she had the internet she could have become a juggernaut because it sounds like her talent and her ruthlessness that combination was gonna serve her well and it just she needed the she needed a better medium if she could have just owned her own instagram and tiktok channels and built everything off the back of that I mean you know she I think she would have been the number one sort of like women's or mom influencer she arguably was that anyways of her era but the market a 100 x
Sam Parr
yeah yeah I mean and like I think a lot of these like big celebrities I think it was a little bit easier to be a big celebrity in the eighties nineties and early 2000 because there was less of them now anyone with a cell phone can become a celebrity in like 6 or 12 months so it's hard to say but but by the way her businesses her businesses still do like a 1,000,000,000 a year in sales
Shaan Puri
okay gotcha you have something in your notes here typical day of 60 year old martha stewart
Sam Parr
yeah read that
Shaan Puri
it says she's 60 but she looks a decade younger she's she's been up since 4:30 am she answers her email at 5 takes a 3 mile walk with her trainer at 6 she tours her garden at 7 as when she tours her garden she's thrilled to discover a duck and 13 ducklings in the swimming pool by 7:30 she's whipping up corn gruel for visiting waterfowl I don't even know what any of these words are an animal an animal building a wooden ramp to help them get in and out of the pool a duck okay she's doing all this stuff for a duck her tv crew arrives at 8 hair and makeup 8:30 and then she's shooting her tv segment by 9 am
Sam Parr
yeah dude she's crazy
Shaan Puri
dude I literally woke up like 19 minutes ago and I rolled out of bed I put on this hat and then I started I clicked play I don't think I don't think I'm built for this
Sam Parr
she's a machine you know how like people say stories of like how trump can only operate on 3 hours of sleep that's like a real thing by the way there's like a it's like a I forget what the name of it it's like a a thing she's another person that she's famous for only sleeping like 3 hours a night
Shaan Puri
perfect segue can I tell you what my best topic was that I wanted to talk to you about yeah ozempic for sleep so there's a guy his blog is isaac.net and he wrote this post about sleeplessness and he basically says that there is a set of people that are famous who have the short sleeper genes a set of genes for where you know about 4 to 5 hours a night is a full night's rest for them and he says that you know mozart thomas edison sigmund freud margaret thatcher obama and he's like even my my lab lab mate this guy's a researcher he's like have this thing called short sleeper syndrome and people thought that short sleeper syndrome would be you sleep less and maybe you're able to operate that way but you know it's gotta be bad for you sleep we know is sort of the best thing for you it restores the brain and the body and all your function and so these people must be dying younger and have more disease right and it's like no actually they don't these people just simply have the benefit without the cost they sleep you know they need about 3 hours less sleep than the rest of us but they they don't pay the price in terms of you know the health consequences of that and so he goes on this post and he basically outlines that we who
Sam Parr
who are these people by the way in this photo
Shaan Puri
so he says you know my favorite family is this family called the johnsons from utah and the johnsons from utah are a set of researchers and I think a bunch of them have this short sleeper genetic makeup and so they've been researching this for a while and it's about you know 1% of people have this thing where you're you don't need as much sleep and it does not seem detrimental to your health or your productivity and they've studied why is this what is it is it one gene is it not and they've basically like there's 4 kind of like protein changes that they've noticed you know variations in the glutamate receptor grm 1 blah blah blah so so there's these four things and then they've done some tests in mice and others where they do like knockouts so they'll they'll knock out one of the genes and they'll they'll see if it you know makes the the mouse sleep less or sleep more and they try to understand that
Sam Parr
can you do that to a like when you say knockout does that mean like you're a living being or when they reproduce
Shaan Puri
a living being
Sam Parr
you could that's how the body works you could just like
Shaan Puri
I I I said that with so much confidence for somebody who has no idea but I think that you could do that I'm a bio major you could check that that that's a fact jack but I don't know if you could do I don't know if it's done at the embryo or in the living thing but? Is they've tested this in mouse models mouse models don't always apply to human models so there's some question there but the the researcher sort of points out actually you know usually when mouse model when when things that work in mice don't work in humans it's because they tried it and it worked for the first time in mice and then it takes a long time to even try it in humans and maybe it won't work he's like in this case we're observing it actually in humans and then we went back to mice and tried to recreate that those genetic mutations or those genetic changes and so this is really exciting so what he's talking about is like in the same way that we found drugs like ozempic which could modify your appetite it could change your your need for food in a way that had all these downstream health benefits right you change your need for food you reduce your need for food now you eat less obesity goes down they've seen that it you know helps with things like addiction to alcohol or there's like all these other like things that people are noticing with these that's the ozempic case this guy is saying you could do the same with sleep like if you
Sam Parr
agree guy isaac is he the researcher or is he just blogging on this
Shaan Puri
he's a researcher who is blogging about this
Sam Parr
wow got it
Shaan Puri
and he's basically saying that like potentially we could create something that does the same thing that how ozempic reduced your need for food that we could reduce your need for sleep in and make you mirror these people who have this already where they don't suffer the consequences of less sleep and he's like you know you do the math and you're like if you're saving 3 or 4 hours a night of sleep you you basically it's like the world's best longevity trade so what most people try to do with longevity is like oh if I'm living till 80 can I live till 90 if I'm living 90 can I live till a 100 100 a 110 and they're trying to push off the like that last marginal decade of poor health where you can't walk as much you can't see as well you know if you're in pain all that stuff you try to push that back as far as you can this would make it so that you actually just live better like the days where you're healthy you have more days you're awake for more of the time and it's the equivalent of an extra 10 years but you get the 10 years not at the end you get it sort of all along the way while you're in your best health of your life and that would be the promise of this and so how exciting is that I feel like that it's possible that somebody's gonna make an ozempic for sleep and it's gonna allow us to instead of needing 8 hours I can sleep for 5 and feel just as good as I would on 8
Sam Parr
he says this is like adding 10 more years to your life an 80 year lifespan 8 hours a days of sleep compared to 80 year 80 years with 4 hours of sleep that's 10 years this is amazing
Shaan Puri
and on top of that by the way there's people who said suffer from insomnia and narcolepsy like there's all these actual like sleep apnea there's all these things that affect people's sleep maybe you could alleviate those along the way right like if you know there's there's thousands of americans who have those problems could you also improve those
Sam Parr
okay first of all this is amazing this is a great find I'm reading his blog his writing's really great it doesn't write like a that's why I was shocked that he's a researcher because he's I think like there's like a quote where he goes this is crazy like that he
Shaan Puri
doesn't they don't they don't normally say things like that
Sam Parr
yeah they don't have personalities usually
Shaan Puri
this has profound implications by the way he's 22 years old he's a phd student at mit exploring brain simulations as an alternative path to beneficial ai and in the past he skipped out of high school in rural austria to graduate early in his gap year he's created a $1,000,000 nonprofit and ran the most viral tech conference of the year that had sam altman and others come he's self taught mandarin last year and did his undergrad at berkeley in 2 years guy's a winner doing well
Sam Parr
andy owns isaac.net good like great domain name
Shaan Puri
you did isaac with ak
Sam Parr
this guy is great man but what I was gonna say was is this I've never I've I've heard of you know that that gene a little bit that you're discussing but it's just funny that there's just some kid with a a 22 year old with a personal blog and this is the first time that I've ever heard about this is this that's
Shaan Puri
what I'm saying it's fascinating
Sam Parr
but if he if he's just talking about his blog is this like something that actually has like why is there not more press or or press releases on this topic that is it actually legit
Shaan Puri
there is now we just broke it dude this was the tipping? You're gonna see other people working on this you're gonna see people talking about this there's gonna be misinformation everywhere it it's gonna be great
Sam Parr
the story is awesome just because I like isaac and also I would like to do I would like to not sleep would you rather be skinny like ozempic and not and eat less or be like heavier or whatever you
Shaan Puri
I could sleep only 5 hours instead of 8 I don't give a shit I would be the fattest man on earth to do that and I was joking but like that is a that is a way better superpower to need less sleep to get back 3 hours of time every day
Sam Parr
that's debatable I think that people will always prefer to be skinny over sleep less sleep
Shaan Puri
people are dumb that's so dumb if they if they prefer to be skinny over like have an extra 3 hours of life every day
Sam Parr
if the average 25 year old if you're like look hot or live to 90 versus 80 they're gonna choose hot over sleep any day of the week
Shaan Puri
well this is why we don't ask 25 year olds questions the the the brain is not fully formed yet
Sam Parr
this is a great find his blog according to similarweb just shot up to a 125,000 visitors in october who what did he like before it was nothing
Shaan Puri
he published this in november so that's kinda cool the so ben found this and he sent it to our friend so our friend invested in a company that made a glp one drug and like sold for 1,000,000,000 of dollars and so he sent this to him because he's like oh you like you did that early ozempic thing before ozempic was like a known thing like 7 years before he invested in this company that was gonna work on on that and it paid off in a big way so he sent it to him and that guy was like I don't know how you found this this is the best thing I've read all year like I'm so excited about what you just sent me and it was such a great example of ben being ben where ben has on one side a really curated feed where he'll find interesting things like this like he'll be he doesn't follow many people but he'll be following a guy like this isaac guy and then he knows who to route the information to and it's he's like a he's like fedex like he doesn't touch the package like when I when I get this I immediately start doing research I write notes I go talk about it this life of I'm not passing it to somebody smarter ben's like he he's like a fedex guy the package comes off the conveyor belt he grabs the box tosses in the truck drives it to the address drops it off and doesn't ask any questions about what's inside he just knows that's useful for you I think this is useful for you and he just does that all day I had him like add me to all these group chats like he he was always texting people but I said yo just add me I just wanna be a part of these so now I'm in probably like 60 group chats where it's me ben and a mutual like acquaintance or friend and he's just doing this all day he's just routing packets to each to different people about yeah I think you're into this kind of thing
Sam Parr
that that that's ridiculous how is he gonna monetize it can he ever monetize this yeah
Shaan Puri
dude we monetize this phenomenally this is the secret of ben he just tries to be useful and then he'll be like hey yeah remember that guy like you met a year ago who you then didn't talk to ever again I'm like yeah I think so I think I remember that guy he was cool he's like yeah so I've been texting him you know we text daily and he's got this new thing and it's taking off and like he wants us to invest he's not letting anyone else in and then we invest in it it's it's incredible how this karma just comes back tenfold for ben and he never asks for anything he never asks it's amazing
Sam Parr
he texts me like a fair bit like just like saw this thing you might like it like you know I so I'm the recipient of some of these things and I I hate texting like I hate like being at my computer and like constantly having to go back and forth with 10 different people which is how a lot of people's computers look right now where you're like it's between slack and messages you're just like going back and forth with 15 or 20 people at all times and you're like what did I do all day today I just like chatted I just chatted it take it's so I don't like doing it do you fall into that trap like throughout the day where you're like dude I just like texted people all day
Shaan Puri
yeah I like slack because I like my projects that I'm working on but I don't text much I'm a very bad texter and if anyone's out there who's texted me I really apologize I I probably have not texted you back so I'm I'm prolifically bad at it ben is prolifically great at it and that combination has really helped the combination has really helped and now people don't they just bypass me altogether they go to him and it hurts my feelings sometimes I'm like wait I thought I was friends with this person but now I understand why because he's just a better person he's a better texter in fact he he he was like I need to make a shirt called I reply he goes because that's my thing dude I reply and he's like I say it's pretty easy and I was like you should write like the modern day how to win friends and influence people because that's what he does he wins friends and influences people with the most basic the most basic of things and I was like you you couldn't sell a like the thing you do creates like tons of value like tens of 1,000,000 of dollars of value for us you couldn't even teach people this because you you would say what you do out loud and they'd be like that was it I showed up for the seminar for that that's basic it's basic as hell and but that's what he does and it works
Sam Parr
that's insane I think it's funny I you by the by the way Google isaac freeman very good looking young stylish black dude this guy's got it all this guy's got it all this guy's if he just becomes an astronaut he's basically the modern day james bond
Shaan Puri
oh man he's got like cool glasses and a jawline yeah give him over
Sam Parr
what you said you had a bunch of exciting things you wanna do all the way
Shaan Puri
you know we don't judge a book by its cover so like you know looks looks do matter let's be clear we try not to judge people by their looks first but once we take a look at what you do we then go take a look at how you look and it either is like a + a 100 or it's a - a 100 it's a huge multiplier on my opinion of you and how much I'm gonna remember you afterwards I will never forget this guy
Sam Parr
yeah like if he were dorky looking I'd be like yeah makes sense checks out and then I see what he looks like and I'm like
Shaan Puri
aw right
Sam Parr
it's tough to be like looking at by by the way most people when they have an avatar as their twitter profile it's because they're goofy looking and the avatar is yeah better looking than that
Shaan Puri
it's making me question everything like there's a reason I have a cartoon profile picture alright look at me if you're on youtube look at me this is why I have a cartoon profile picture okay that's the that's the rule it's like when someone quotes you revenue they would have said profit if they had it right if somebody talks about users they would have quoted revenue if they had it normally if somebody's got the looks they're gonna put their faces the profile picture this guy defies all all convention
Sam Parr
I asked someone what the revenue was recently and they were like 8 figures if you include the dot 0 0 and I
Shaan Puri
was like I was
Sam Parr
like that's pretty funny it was that was pretty good you wanna do another thing
Shaan Puri
yeah alright I got some cool stuff
Sam Parr
oh you gotta do this poly market whale
Shaan Puri
okay yeah this is alright so this is the billy of the week cue the music a $1,000,000 isn't cool you know what's cool a $1,000,000,000 so you've heard the story I think but can I just explain a little bit of the detail here amazing
Sam Parr
I read I read about it a little bit do do we even know who this person is
Shaan Puri
yeah so the election was happening what 10 days ago or so and the big news was sort or I guess like there's a battle going on there's republicans versus democrats gray there's trump and kamala gray they were supposed to be head to head but there was there was an undercard to the pay per view and so who was the undercard okay if trump and kamala are the main event then I think the undercard a lot of it was like mainstream media versus social media right you had like twitter and blogs versus msnbc and whatever and they were they were giving you different narratives right and so you know joe trump and vance go on joe rogan kamala goes on saturday night live and you know the view or 60 minutes or like you know these like traditional media so that was one battle that was going on
Sam Parr
by the way who would have thought like you've seen like theo vonn swinging the election being like a needle mover insane right I
Shaan Puri
was saying this the other day I think that going on theo vonn needs to be part of the national standard for an election like I need to know if my president's gonna be a good hang or not and I think theo is the the one who could save us there
Sam Parr
yeah that was insane
Shaan Puri
so under that then you have like the billionaire backers you got elon on one side you got mark cuban on the other and it's like they're going around they're promoting they're using their money and their voice to to do what was the other battles one of the other battles was polls versus crypto prediction markets so the polls were telling a story at the time pre election the polls were saying razor thin margin toss-up these swing states too close to call it's a 50 50 election right now like we don't we it is too hard to tell who's gonna win and the prediction markets which were people betting money were saying something different they were saying 6535 trump gonna win and they're different things right a poll is you know you go out and you ask people who are you gonna vote for a prediction market is who's gonna get the most votes so they do tell different things but the reality is still the same which is that if the polls were accurate that it was a 5050 toss-up it's gonna be a razor thin margin then the betting market shouldn't have such a big spread there shouldn't be a big favorite versus a a a a big underdog
Sam Parr
and what was the poly market spread I think it was like 75 25
Shaan Puri
no it was a little less about it was about 63 trump but then it got to 65 and then like as the election started when the news was saying you know we're still still too early the the odds were just jetting in trump's direction they they were they they knew earlier than than the the the exit polls or the the news was willing to report about how much of a landslide this was gonna be for trump which it was okay so before it happened there was a question of like is the prediction market actually predictive and there was some legitimate skepticism so the pros side was
Sam Parr
the betting market versus the poll market
Shaan Puri
the betting well it's just like even just alone should we be should we care what polymarket says and on one thing
Sam Parr
market being the platform where
Shaan Puri
you could take bets exactly and so you the + side would be to say well these are people betting their own money so skin in the game and so if you see a lot more action coming in on one side that means the sort of the wisdom of the crowds and the actual free market believes the odds are are this and that might be better than just the polls where people say they're just saying what they're gonna vote for and it's a small sample but who knows maybe they're lying maybe it's just too small of a sample to know maybe it's not indicative of there's no skin in the game there so on one hand you said skin in the end on the other hand you would say polymarket never heard of it banned in the us all the betting action was from international so through over $3,000,000,000 was bet on the election none of this was americans because you can't use polymarket in america then it's also crypto holders right because yeah poly market is a crypto betting thing so you're like oh maybe there's a bias crypto holders are more libertarian maybe they're gonna go more more right right right leaning and so it's what they want pinterest pro crypto yeah so so it was like maybe they're voting on what they wish for and not what it actually is okay so there was some some question marks then there was one more then then the news came out and said you know we can't trust poly market because it's manipulated manipulated how well it's manipulated because a couple of whales are betting heavily on trump and that's swinging the odds so it's actually that's not what the the the crowds think it's really a couple of whales that are influencing us and they saw that
Sam Parr
and you you can see on poly market the like can I size it like oh someone just put this $1,000,000 bet in
Shaan Puri
I can go on poly market right now and look at the top 10 betters and what they are bet on how much volume they've bet this year and how much their p and l is are they up or down
Sam Parr
so theo 4 I think is the biggest one on the platform and he has made a profit of $22,000,000 this year
Shaan Puri
exact so that's that was one that's one user but you can go user by user and you can see this guy's just betting on everything or this guy's one huge bet or whatever right you can go look at anybody any any betters p and l on on polymarket so what they found was they were like hey there's a couple of bets here that were in the tens of 1,000,000 on trump and actually it all came from the same guy and what they were thinking was that there's 4 big accounts that bet 28,000,000 and actually it turns out now after the fact the guy came out and said it he had 11 accounts and he he bet 40 something million and he 40 or 50,000,000 and he made about $80,000,000 of profit actually sorry I don't know the exact is that bad amounts but I know he made he made $80,000,000 profit in the end
Sam Parr
a french guy I think
Shaan Puri
a french guy so they're like who is this french whale and the story behind it is pretty interesting because this guy was a trader he's like in a he's like in finance he lived in the us at one? But basically he's like he's like I'm trying to remain remain anonymous I'm trying not to by
Sam Parr
the way how would on earth would a journalist find this person that seems really hard that's a great scoop
Shaan Puri
so on polymarket you can see the bets so you can go see wow there's a huge bet then you go look at the account you try to figure out whose wallet is this and because crypto is there's a public ledger you can actually trace back and try to find it and there's a company called chainalysis do you know chainalysis
Sam Parr
I've heard of it just like as a headline
Shaan Puri
they're basically the the government goes to chainalysis and says we need to know who owns this wallet and they can go and do the forensic analysis of every transaction that wallet's done and tries to figure out the root wallet and who owns that wallet and so that's and and this is like a $10,000,000,000 company chainalysis
Sam Parr
to do a breakdown of this company this sounds fun
Shaan Puri
yeah they're they're a fascinating company and so they came out and they did this analysis and there's like this web of the accounts and like so take a look
Sam Parr
this is like all the best stuff like crime and crypto stories are the best stories and so like working at this. It would be super exciting
Shaan Puri
so so
Sam Parr
oh I know but you know what I mean
Shaan Puri
totally so they come out and they say alright well dude how did you know why did you make such a massive bet on trump and this is where the story gets really interesting he says he he's like I didn't trust the polls but I trust polling what do you mean he goes I commissioned my own polls there's a french guy who commissioned polls in america to inform his own bet and what he did was he paid a polling company and he said I want you to go and I want you to ask them but don't ask them who they vote who they're gonna vote for
Sam Parr
because that's what polls often ask the is what what do traditional polls ask
Shaan Puri
are you likely to vote if you're gonna vote who who are you likely to vote for are you certain of that you know whatever is there anything that's gonna change your mind
Sam Parr
would you be doing something that's gonna also ask who do I think they ask it in a weird way as well I think they also ask who do you think your friend is gonna vote for no
Shaan Puri
that's what this guy did oh okay this guy did was called the neighbor method and what he says is he says don't ask them who they're gonna vote for I don't wanna they they people are indirect people don't wanna reveal their own preferences but if you ask them a specific question which is who do you expect your neighbor to vote for they will indirectly reveal their own preferences and what they believe is gonna happen and he believed that the neighbor method is a more predictive method and when he did this he commissioned this poll he paid a post paid a major us pollster to go do these polls for him just like you know the dnc and the rnc they'll pay pollsters to go run their independent polls that they're not reporting to the public and he wanted him to measure this neighbor effect and what he found was that the results were quote mind blowing to the favor of trump it showed a trump landslide and so he thought now this is mispriced the media is telling you that this is 5050 razor thin but actually my polling is showing that actually this is gonna be a a a major landslide for trump it's overwhelmingly in favor of trump so now the bet is mispriced so he places this huge bet on trump and it turns out he's correct and his final quote was you know public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured using the neighbor effect and he he specifically didn't just bet on the overall victory he bet on specific swing states where he thought this people think the state is closer than it's actually gonna be it's gonna be more in favor of trump using this neighbor method which is just insane and now of course the french government's not
Sam Parr
banned the
Shaan Puri
poly market
Sam Parr
this guy had nailed that
Shaan Puri
like just two words bonjour my friend
Sam Parr
yeah fucking a first of all what I respect about this is everything go I don't respect everything about it I don't love I don't love gambling like this but people who have conviction on some like they do their own analysis and they're like no this is the answer even though all the quote smart people or everyone's the the establishment is saying this but I I did my own research and then that he did the big part which is he bet $30,000,000 or whatever of his own money I think that is like those types of people fascinate me because that takes so much conviction
Shaan Puri
yeah exactly this is I mean the guts that it the the brains and the guts right the and that that's kinda I think the theme of the year is like you see someone like elon who basically swings the election who catches a rocket out of you know catches a rocket with some chopsticks you know is working on self driving cars helps cofound openai which is changing the world the guy is just you know like firing on all cylinders and it's like why what is it what is different about this guy and it's the combination of the brain and the balls right like there are other people as smart as elon musk there are other people who have you know the risk taking gut you know guts as elon musk but the combination is rare and then you add on top of that the willingness to you know absolutely work to the bone as well right and then you add on top of that
Sam Parr
like sacrifice your own life
Shaan Puri
yeah you so he's you know top. 1% in like 5 things and then it's like oh if you just multiply 0.1% times you know 5 times over and over again you end up with like 1 in 10,000,000,000 which is like oh that's actually the ratio we do have 1 elon out of the entire human population
Sam Parr
dude I thought it was impressive I was like justin timberlake you can sing dance and act and you're funny you know what I mean superbad eli just really he stepped it up
Shaan Puri
it's a great call
Sam Parr
is polymarket gonna sustain after this of course not right
Shaan Puri
okay so I've been a big polymarket fan I was using polymarket before they banned it like you know way back in the day
Sam Parr
you're also a little bit of a degen
Shaan Puri
yeah but I think a lot of people are okay I think
Sam Parr
much money have you in you've first
Shaan Puri
by the way you called this gambling I don't believe that this is gambling betting just buy the condition well like for example you own stock do you believe that you're gambling gambling when you when you buy a stock I guess what what are you doing when you buy a stock right like on
Sam Parr
yeah you are I guess I guess you would have to say that there's it's not as binary but there's levels or like there's it's a it's a scale so but yeah you are just like if you buy cars like
Shaan Puri
you and I it exists on a spectrum yes so so like you know the the with a stock the chair the you know the the old fashioned way of looking at it is I'm not buy I'm not gambling I'm buying a piece of ownership in a company that produces goods and for account it's like yeah alright cool nobody really in practice treats it like that meaning you're not sitting there like you know you're you're not sitting there waiting for dividends you're not you're not trying to you know own this piece of this company because you think it's gonna you know exit at a later date when it's a public stock already right like you're basically saying I believe that you know the future earnings of this company are gonna be x and that that's why owning this is good because the the share price is gonna go up because their earnings are gonna go up and they're maybe gonna go up at a faster rate than the current price of the earning current price of the stock indicates that's what you you're supposed to buy right you're supposed to buy buy a stock that you think is gonna you know appreciate over time I think that poly market has the ability to do that in a bunch of interesting ways so first there are the other speculation / betting gambling type of use cases so speculating on prices of things speculating on sports game you know sports outcomes of games right like sports betting is obviously a huge deal so there's those use cases there is an interesting thing so I'm guessing you didn't read vitalik's blog recently about about this that's an accurate guess vitalik who's the creator of ethereum wrote a great blog post vitalik's one of my favorite entrepreneurs and thinkers on the planet
Sam Parr
so the blog post is called I guess from prediction markets into into finance
Shaan Puri
info finance so he's he he's like you know I have written a lot and I've supported poly market and many of you who know me might be surprised by this because vitalik is sort of notoriously like not into the like crypto casino side of of life like he's not price based he's not trying to get rich as as like his primary motivation
Sam Parr
he's kinda like a prude
Shaan Puri
he's a purist and so like it'd be like why why do you care so much about these like prediction markets just people gambling who cares and he's like because I don't see it as that I actually think that there's another category here that's overlooked and it's called info finance information finance and he gives some examples so he's like like polymarket was 2 things at once he goes on one hand it's a betting site for the few people that wanna bet and gamble but for the rest of us we could look at how the gamblers are betting and that would it's for them it served as a news site it was like oh wow trump is doing better trump is improving in the same way that the polls are supposed to be part of the news the prediction markets were actually better news information so it was information finance it was like that's the first level which was even if you're not participating in the betting trying to trying to make a buck it is very useful that other people are doing that because it it's a new it's another source of information he's like it's not it should not be the only source of information but it should be another one he talks about the elections in venezuela how like you know basically he was watching how people were protesting how it was getting manipulated and blah blah blah how polymarketer was actually a very useful source of information for him in understanding what was going on in venezuela from an informational.
Shaan Puri
Of view alright so that was 1 then he's like okay what's the other use case he's like so imagine a company so like you know I don't know if you saw like chipotle or starbucks like starbucks just hired the chipotle ceo did you see that
Sam Parr
yeah and he's the headline is that he's working from home even though he's making everyone else go back to work right
Shaan Puri
yeah he's like private jetting in and out but like this guy is kinda famous for like he trims the menu he cuts costs and he like he basically improves margins that's what this guy is known for and so the amazing thing was that guy he's that he's that guy and so like he's him when it comes to public markets because when he switched teams they paid him a bunch of money and I was like wow what a huge stock package for a ceo it was like a $100,000,000 or whatever whatever the number was but the stock jumped like $20,000,000,000 or something like it was like a I'm making up numbers here because I I didn't plan to talk about this but like the stock jumped in a disproportionate way based on just the news that this guy was coming over and so like it was a great trade for them to overpay this guy this talent because it immediately improved the the overall value of the company just the news of him joining and so vitalik actually was like just like there's today we're looking at these as prediction markets you could actually use this as a decision market meaning a company or a group of people could set could basically in the way that that guy theo paid for a private poll to get information you could actually set up a prediction market and set a decision market and say should we hire this ceo or what will the that should be what will the share price be in 6 months if we hire brian nichols and if the share price expectation is really high it tells you in advance without having to hire him yet what the market reaction is gonna be to making this decision does that make sense and so you can actually create decision markets and it would be worth basically paying to paying participants to go pick a side and make a bet in order to gather information that will help you make a better decision about what you're gonna do and so he's like there's you can actually improve judgment if you were to if you were to make this decision and so I I thought that was pretty interesting and he talks about he goes through you know how this might how info finance might affect all these other things so for example scientific peer review so right now in science you submit a paper and he's there's something called the replication crisis which is that famous results that end up being you know go into books and in the news or whatever then they can't be reproduced that study can't be reproduced it's like is it even like the definition of good science is that it's a reproducible experiment but that's not happening and in fact there's not really a big incentive to go reproduce these because the incentive is come out with a new finding you get published you get the glory you get the funding for your lab spending your resources to reproduce a a somebody else's science somebody else's big news it's not really a good use of time and he talks about how prediction markets could actually create incentives for people to go and try to reproduce these studies because you could have people betting on if this is reproducible or not and so you you'll be able to profit off of knowing that this this is gonna be reproduced or not so this is pretty interesting to see how that might be applied in all these other ways
Sam Parr
I haven't read this other than what you just told me and skimming it here first of all this is like an amazing blog post I need to go read this 2nd if you go to his blog if you go to like his other posts he's publishes like a in-depth post like every 3 days how amazing is this that we have access to a genius like this who just like shares his thoughts and and by the way they're like if you read just the headlines and then click the articles they are not just like half ass blocked these are like in-depth things that he's publishing a shit ton how special of a era are do we have where we can like go and just read his thoughts
Shaan Puri
that you get access to this yeah and the beautiful thing about his stuff which is I think hard to because you know I was thinking about this with podcasts it's amazing now that there's podcasts with you know like when we started this I felt like there was a slight differentiator in the business podcast space because we were not just journalists nor were we like never has been we had like done it we had started many companies
Sam Parr
or were not sales
Shaan Puri
failed and we had you know sold companies we had done real things and so that was kinda like a a interesting oh what if you actually had a podcast from from entrepreneurs who are actually like more successful than the average podcast let's say
Sam Parr
I think you're looking for the term for us by us
Shaan Puri
we phooboot it yeah but now you you have all in you have now you get to see billionaires you know doing this reid hoffman has a podcast you know zuck is going on podcast there's like who doesn't have a podcast at this. Right and I think that's really cool and the same thing's happening in sports athlete current athletes past athletes now have sports podcasts whereas before the only sports podcast you get was like you know hardcore fan in his in his base mom's basement you know ranting about his team or you know a journalist and now you have this like this third thing and the third thing is like somebody who's actually been there and done that who gives their perspective not to say it's always better but like it's interesting that that's now
Sam Parr
another good one now
Shaan Puri
to us yeah but the problem with something like let's say all in or or other podcasts like that is like you have to always parse the agenda so it's like wow this guy's really bearish on nuclear and really pro pro solar that you go look into shamash's profile and it's like oh wow he's made like enormous bets on solar and like that's his he's talking his book in a way right and that's okay it's okay to talk to your book but it's you have to constantly do that like underwriting yourself as a listener to be like are they you know what's the bias here yeah the beautiful thing about vitalik is that the guy is such an uber nerd that like you can actually take him at face value and it's so nice to have somebody you could take at face value and other people might disagree I don't care I take him at face value and I followed this guy for like you know 8 years straight now and I've this guy's done nothing to make me think he's just trying to pump his bags in fact he actively does things against his bags you know not pumping ethereum we're talking about what where it lacks or what's slow about it and you know underpromising what it's gonna be and I think that that is that's great that we have access to this guy who is not trying to take something from us in the process
Sam Parr
that's a very good speech on this guy I'm I'm gonna like I don't even think you could subscribe to his like I don't there's not even an email form dude his blog like so he publishes on alright so listen october 29th october 26th october 23rd october 20th he's been writing these posts a lot and those posts that I just said I just put them into a word counter one of them was 6,000 words now I don't know like I don't know how bitcoin
Shaan Puri
the dramatic look you just gave me when you said that like I was supposed to like audibly gasp
Sam Parr
dude that's so much work I've written a lot of blog posts a 6,000 word blog post would take me 40 hours probably right it's so much work would you would you are this guy and you create ethereum is it one of the things where like you've created it and you can now walk away or does it like is it like a house and you gotta like maintain it
Shaan Puri
no he's actively working on it
Sam Parr
like I don't know is it like a thing where you're like
Shaan Puri
I mean it's bigger than just him obviously but like yeah he's he's you know actively dedicated to life
Sam Parr
reroof it every once in a while I I don't know how these things work like ethereum I don't know like did you just
Shaan Puri
ethereum was like a 10 year road map and so he's just it's not even like reroofing it it's like building a hotel one floor at a time and people are staying in the hotel but you told them from the beginning this is a 50 story hotel and I I haven't even built all those other things that we're gonna need in order for this to work like there's no elevators yet I know we're gonna make elevators for now we take the stairs that's like the transaction fees and all that
Sam Parr
the reason I'm asking is how on earth is he writing this much stuff while doing like a full time job
Shaan Puri
because ethereum doesn't work like that it's not like he's sitting there coding all day or managing people like it's not a company it's like a nonprofit foundation open source project of which he's like a steward and a champion but he's not like he doesn't have like 25 direct reports you know what I mean
Sam Parr
does he have a girlfriend or wife yet
Shaan Puri
I'm not sure I've seen a bunch of pictures but it's so hard with him to tell what's a meme and what's like reality because he's like so memeable that like when bitcoin when ethereum price goes down and then they posted him pictures of him they're like goddamn it it's because he has a girlfriend by the way
Sam Parr
like is his girlfriend just gonna be like which way is it gonna go
Shaan Puri
so it's november 13th we're recording this exactly 1 month ago I came on this podcast and I said tim can I give you my one minute case for bitcoin and you literally rolled your eyes and audibly groaned at me and said haven't you already done that like are you are you talking about why you like bitcoin again I just wanna say the price is up 47% since I did that rant
Sam Parr
alright well are you are you like that are you like that french dude are you the french guy did you you had you were you smart or just or were you smart and ballsy or just smart
Shaan Puri
go back and listen to it it's in the episode called did the creator of bitcoin get unmasked at the 30 minute mark 30 minutes to
Sam Parr
20 seconds not debating
Shaan Puri
if you said that I'm saying did you make sure go listen to the case and say did I get lucky or was I smart
Sam Parr
did I have something that
Shaan Puri
I have a reason
Sam Parr
asking what I'm asking is did you make the bet
Shaan Puri
oh of course what do you mean
Sam Parr
well what I'm what I'm saying is did you just say it was gonna be good or did you actually invest your own money into
Shaan Puri
oh dude I'm polymarket bro I was skin in the game
Sam Parr
does and does gambling on polymarket mean you have bitcoin
Shaan Puri
well I I it's like polymarket versus a poll a poll is just saying what you're gonna do polymarket is putting your money saying what you think is gonna actually happen I put my money up and thought what said what I thought was gonna happen
Sam Parr
yeah I mean it's had a hell of a run almost as good as palantir everything's fucking crazy right now though like everything when I look at it now
Shaan Puri
too crazy
Sam Parr
everything's too crazy like it it wouldn't be I don't know anything about anything but it seems like it'd be a good time to make the opposite prediction so yeah you were right it's just like how long are you gonna be right for right now everything is just like insane
Shaan Puri
yeah yeah and of course these are like you know 1 month fluctuations are are nothing but I I guess the the thing I the reason I thought it was bullish was because it was the same reason that the thing is pumping right now because there was a whole bunch of like big things like for example that the government was gonna be pro pro bitcoin which was always the biggest risk of bitcoin it was like oh even if it's even if you're right about the technology being better the government will never allow this and I was like dude the guy who's gonna become president is saying not only will he allow it he's bought and sold by the crypto donors now and both both sides are and like I don't know if you saw like the congress and like the whatever house representative senate all that shit there's like there's like a 140 pro crypto people now like in in active government which is like you know that number was was 0 you know 7 years ago and I just felt like these things were not priced in properly now they're talking about a bitcoin strategic reserve for the country itself it's like these things once you'd go in it's it's almost impossible to unwind these things and I just thought that when a top 2 or 3 risk gets derisked that should change your your underwriting on the price and I thought that that wasn't happening for some reason the price was flat and people weren't paying attention to that one fact what a world so in summary I was right thank you
Sam Parr
you were you were right you you absolutely are right everything is insane at the moment I hope your prediction will be true for many many many more months and many more years but it's definitely making me nervous at the moment everything is insane is that where we
Shaan Puri
end that's where we end this has been a fantastic podcast to martha stewart to bitcoin to the poly market whale that's called thank you for your service
Sam Parr
hot hot heat the hot hot heat was served you're welcome alright that's it that's the pod