Investing Wisdom from Nassim Taleb, plus ChatGPT Questions That Will Change Your Life
AI, Investing, Future News, and ChatGPT - January 3, 2025 (3 months ago) • 01:06:51
Transcript:
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Shaan Puri | What's up sam hey you like the you like the fit | |
Sam Parr | where did you get that | |
Shaan Puri | our boys at jambi sent it over the no small boy stuff christmas edition | |
Sam Parr | you know what's pretty funny I actually use the phrase no small boy stuff like kind of a lot | |
Shaan Puri | yeah I remember the guy who tweeted it I think his name was bengali 87 and this was back in 2022 he said best business / entrepreneurship podcast out there big money that is no small boy stuff I love that | |
Sam Parr | and that's basically the phrase that we use for this podcast a lot no small boy stuff but frankly I kind of use it a lot in my life like I don't know man that's small boy kind of stuff like it's sort of like an in succession where they say you're not a very serious person it's kind of like that | |
Shaan Puri | I also use the phrase but I'd never say it because saying it to me feels so cringe but I think it like a 1000 times for every one time that I say it and every one time I say it it feels so awkward to me it's like saying it's like saying just do it in the nike slogan way or something you don't really wanna say that hey guys yeah this you know in the q4 we check nike baby just do it and then they'll be like what why are you saying slogans at us but but I do think it a lot it's actually I | |
Sam Parr | think it a lot | |
Shaan Puri | meaningfully affected the trajectory of my life is to use this phrase and because there's so many situations where there's like a little small boy response oh I'll I'll behave like a little small boy in this situation or I'll do it | |
Sam Parr | yeah that phrase and what amjad said recently about what will make the better story that has had a a fairly meaningful change just in you know it's only been a few weeks but like I I think about that actually a lot | |
Shaan Puri | he also said something else where he was talking about he was basically so comfortable with this like 10 year + odyssey that he's been on building this and we're like wow you've been doing this for so long and wow you did this for years before you had really any recognition or any funding and you just kept going and he was just like yeah I persist and he was just like yeah he's like I think that's what I do he's like I I no I didn't really think about it that consciously but like I'm pretty comfortable pushing the boulder for a long time up the mountain and I he goes I realized like I guess that's my like competitive advantage like I'm in it for the long haul and I'll just persist it's like and we were both like small like yeah a quick intake of breath | |
Sam Parr | what do you wanna start with today | |
Shaan Puri | alright I got a good story for you so there's this great nassim taleb quote or tweet where he taleb who wrote black swan and antifragile he's kind of this like contrarian thinker | |
Sam Parr | was he like a successful hedge fund investor but he was successful because he had an interesting life philosophy and then he became like a a thinker is that his story | |
Shaan Puri | believe so I believe so I believe he's like a successful trader and part of his success unless I'm mixing him up with somebody else part of his success was that he he noticed that humans are we would rather win frequently in small amounts and then lose a bunch when we're wrong it's like gambling it's like playing craps right you know 1 roll of the dice you win a little money 2 rolls of dice you win a little money but eventually you roll a 7 and it wipes out the entire board all of the chips go away but he's like humans are more comfortable with that versus he was willing to loo bleed a little every day and look stupid every day for years but then when the his big you know sort of like the big short when his big bet pays off and his contrarian bet pays off he makes zack all the money in one day | |
Sam Parr | got it | |
Shaan Puri | okay I think that's his story if it's not his story his book is talking about the guy who does that so I can't recall if it's him or if he if he's the author or he's the author and the the the hero of the story a lot of people know that answer put it in the comments if you if you know okay so he taleb tweeted this thing he goes I conjecture that if you gave an investor the next day's news 24 hours in advance he would go bust in less than a year and this is basically the back to the future premise right so I don't remember the movie back to the future but what's his name biff or whatever | |
Sam Parr | biff he finds like the sports betting book that tells all the winners for the next decade of the game exactly | |
Shaan Puri | he goes back in time and then he just becomes a gazillionaire because he knows the scores okay so like let's take yes if you knew the exact score you'd have to be pretty dumb to not win what these guys did what nassim taleb was saying is I could give you the news so not the price change but I could give you the news and I bet you would trade incorrectly | |
Sam Parr | dude I think about this all the time by the way all the time I think if I know what I know today but I was 10 or 50 years ago how would I capitalize on that I think about that all the time | |
Shaan Puri | right and you know usually the easy answers for that are oh I just buy bitcoin I just buy Google right like yeah it would actually wouldn't be that hard if you if you could convince yourself hey do this one thing and just shut up and trust me like don't don't touch it for 15 years now what these guys did was a little bit of a different experiment so what they did was they took a 118 as they call them adults trained at finance and they did the crystal ball test and the crystal ball test was as follows they said we're gonna give you money so they gave them $50 each so I said you have $50 and you get to place trades and you're gonna trade but we're gonna before you make a trade we're gonna show you the front page of the wall street journal the actual front page of the wall street journal from 15 random days in the last like I think 20 years or something like that okay so 15 random days we're gonna show you the front page of the wall street journal and that's a wednesday edition and you're gonna place the trade that would execute on the tuesday so the day before that news so you had the news at 24 hours in advance they blacked out the stock prices so they wouldn't just show you oh johnson and johnson's up 20% right but they would say like there would be the headline about johnson and johnson they would just redact the actual stock price | |
Sam Parr | the johnson and johnson beats earnings | |
Shaan Puri | beats earnings exactly record unemployment record jobs posting fed indicates blah blah blah right things like that and by the way anybody can go play this game online there's like a link to it we'll put it in the show notes but you can go actually do it yourself I did it too there's a couple other caveats to this when you go do it which is it's not just a buy and hold because what I was gonna do I went and did the thing I was like oh cool this is news from 15 years ago I'll just put all my money in buy and I won't trade I won't do anything else for the next 15 years I know there is a bull market so I don't need to be smart but the way that this test was designed was the trade executes and you either go up or down that day so it's kind of like the trade closes that day you know what I mean you get a one day gain based on the one day news okay so they do it and the results are not good as you might expect otherwise I wouldn't really talk about this so the results are not good half the players lost money even having been given the news one out of every 6 players lost everything and the way they lost everything was they let you trade on leverage so you can trade up to like 20 x leverage if you want to in this thing like an options trader could or you could just trade or you could skip you don't even have to trade any given day you could just say pass I I don't I don't feel confident | |
Sam Parr | out of it headline would be like an example trade would be they would see something that says like fed is gonna cut rate today I guess you would assume that the index is gonna go up like a couple% so you would bet on the index or bet on what | |
Shaan Puri | it's basically the s and p 500 or it's the the 30 year treasury so you could best best bet on one of those 2 things you bet you buy the sp index for that day or you could short a bond you go long or short or you can go long or short the bond right so that's let me just show you an example so like this is the wall street journal that they the article that they show you so it's obama does something and then you see this business and finance section and talks about rupert murdoch chesapeake energy says that their ceo is gonna step down auto sales are up homeland security says blah blah blah right so there's all this there's all this news and so you then go here and you place a trade so you say alright I'm gonna go in this in this little game here you can see my screen where it gave me $1,000,000 so I'm gonna trade and it says today's movement I you know I bet a $1,000,000 so I used my full stack with no leverage and the day was up 0.62% so I got an extra $62100 right then it gives me the next one and it says oh there's a there's a deadly plane crash iran is doing some shit okay cool blah blah blah kraft is in talks to acquire this brazilian company and they're just blacking out any of the stock price news right so you read this and you can decide what you wanna do and you do that over and over and over again so 15 15 days in history and they tried to do it as 15 like they did a third of the days were like fed quarterly meeting days a third was jobs reports and a third was complete randomness and they didn't they're like we're not trying to trick you there's no we're not like cherry picking like misleading days these are just actually like random front front pages okay | |
Sam Parr | this is an awesome experiment | |
Shaan Puri | hey let's take a quick break to talk about our sponsor today hubspot has put together a list of 200 ai business ideas these are business ideas that you could create using ai and it's a list of 200 they did a huge brainstorm so you could check it out if you just click the link below you can get access to these 200 ai ideas I'll give you an example of a couple of them one of them is you could build an ai dressing room so let's say you go to an ecommerce site and you wanna see what something would look like on you you can use ai to actually take a picture of you and show you what the clothes would look like on you or what the makeup would look like on your face it's pretty cool right or ai tools for real estate brokers maybe something that takes their listings and makes them more more fancy more more more beautiful and attract more buyers so check it out it's a brainstorm of 200 possible ai ideas brought to you by hubspot you can get it free in the link below okay so back to the results now so like I said half the people lose the money one out of 6 lose everything because they got overleveraged the average person was only able to gain 3.2% so even being given the news | |
Sam Parr | during that era the market was up on average I think 15% a year over the last 15 years I don't know when this was done | |
Shaan Puri | correct correct but again these are all like one day trades right so you're not you're not just like buying and holding for | |
Sam Parr | oh it was for 15 days the experiment was a 15 day experiment | |
Shaan Puri | exactly got it okay and the and so okay now why right there's 2 ways you could lose in in investing one is you bet wrong meaning you pick the wrong direction you think it's going up it actually goes down so basically even given the news they were basically only able to bet the direction correctly 51% of the time so it's the same as if you know you've just flipped a coin you would have been right the same amount of times as you were being given the actual front page of the wall street journal okay so information doesn't lead to actual insight especially news the second thing is that why did they do poorly they bet sized very poorly so when you had an event even when you were correct people didn't size up their bets enough and when they're incorrect they sized up their bets too much for the level of conviction that they had and you know this doesn't go in line with what people think so they surveyed people separately and basically 70% of people thought that even if they got the news you know sort of like like basically they thought that even 4 week old stale news would be predictive and you know 70% of people thought that but but in this case it just showed that even you know one day fresh news doesn't even really help you okay so then they went and they did an extra experiment they go okay maybe those 118 you know financial trained adults maybe they're just not the best of the best so they went and tried to find the best of the best the best of the best actually did better so they went and found 5 people that were you know hedge fund guy the head of trading at a top five bank seasoned macro traders so they are used to trading on this type of news they're considered the best in the world at this and they actually did better so what they did was all of them finished with gains so all 5 finished with gains on average they were up a 130% and they also didn't bet on 1 out of every 3 news things the one of the big ways that they were better was they just didn't bet all the time whereas the casual was too active okay what else did the pro do differently they were only right 6% more so you know if the I think if the the the the test group was right 51% of the time if it's going up or down these guys were only right 57% of the time it wasn't like | |
Sam Parr | not huge | |
Shaan Puri | they correctly interpreted it but when they were right they bet sized properly and they never risked too much of their bankroll to where they couldn't recover and so isn't that amazing that you know only being you know 6 to 10% better at your predictive ability but would yield a much bigger result right 3% average gain for the test group a 130% average gain for the for the pros so it's these small edges that can make a huge difference when you apply leverage properly which was the the bet sizing | |
Sam Parr | and what's the takeaway that nassim nassim said which is which is what | |
Shaan Puri | well he was saying it in a polarizing way he goes I conjecture if you gave an investor the the next day's news he would go bust in less than a year | |
Sam Parr | got it | |
Shaan Puri | and and this kind of this basically showed that 1 out of 6 would go bust because they would get overzealous around this perceived edge that doesn't exist and on the whole most people would just do worse than if they didn't have the news it's no better than random right and that's actually one of his books fooled by randomness and at the end they use this quote by ray dalio in there this is a great quote it goes he who lives by the crystal ball will die eating shattered glass | |
Sam Parr | dude that's insane | |
Shaan Puri | so good | |
Sam Parr | it's like that's it's weird that multiple smart people come to that conclusion that I never would have come to like I I would have thought like I I guess everyone have thought that if you know the future or you know the news you absolutely are going to outperform | |
Shaan Puri | exactly exactly the counterintuitive wise conclusion let me tell you one one other related one so there was one other story here that was kind of interesting there was a real world version of this where a hacking group got access they hacked the press release system so they had access to the next day's press releases that companies put out when they have like major announcements earnings results etcetera they got access to all of the press releases that were coming out the next day and they were using it as like their own form of like you know home brewed insider information right they were able to get insider information and so they could place a bet in the market overnight or the next morning and that's like a previously | |
Sam Parr | that's like a 12 hour leading indicator maybe because like if you're if you're gonna fire your ceo you submit the press release maybe at 5 or 6 pm on a when on a thursday and then 9 am on friday you announce it or or the the wire goes live | |
Shaan Puri | something I don't know the exact timing I would imagine they it's a it's a tighter window to that because there's too much leakage but even a 12 second advantage would be in a huge advantage if you knew 12 seconds ahead of time what the news is about to be you could just push the button right that's all you gotta do | |
Sam Parr | that's like an interesting like you know like hubspot for example whenever they have a that I'm a shareholder of whenever they have like an earnings I like I know when it's gonna go live that day so someone is like writing that and they've submitted it to I forget what the pr comp what the thing's called it's the popular | |
Shaan Puri | pr newswire or whatever | |
Sam Parr | yeah like whatever the popular thing is that is kind of an I did I I never even realized that actually | |
Shaan Puri | that's why there's rules right when I was at amazon you couldn't trade the stock in a there's a window there's like a frozen window so x days before the announcement you can't make any trades | |
Sam Parr | oh I know that but I'm saying the employees of the pr | |
Shaan Puri | oh right right right but that they probably have the same right because it's | |
Sam Parr | inside the ringtone right so I I didn't even think about that as a leakage | |
Shaan Puri | tell you the when I when I accidentally did that trade and then I had to go to the | |
Sam Parr | what were they like you're an idiot | |
Shaan Puri | so I I'm like I've learned about this afterwards right I'm a start up kid I don't know anything about this we get acquired I you know I make a trade and then I'm like oh shit | |
Sam Parr | well I'm a trade | |
Shaan Puri | so we're at a subsidiary of amazon right | |
Sam Parr | like I bought amazon before you sold to amazon | |
Shaan Puri | I bought amazon stock I bought more amazon stock or something or I sold to amazon I don't remember what it was and I I was like oh shit I just did I just inside our trade did I just get my hands dirty with a little big boy business and so I'm like oh shit what do I do they're like you need to go speak to the general counsel and I was like what so I get a meeting with the general counsel urgent urgent possible possible big money move made and I send the email they get me a meeting stat I go in and he's like so what what happened and I was like I went and made a trade you know I'm in the window and you know I'm an executive so hancock take me away | |
Sam Parr | wipe me up I'm a bad boy | |
Shaan Puri | I'm a bad I've been a bad boy take me away | |
Sam Parr | and he's like | |
Shaan Puri | so how much did you drink | |
Sam Parr | bad boy and I | |
Shaan Puri | was like I was like yeah it was like a $150 and he was like it's okay you just my lunch is outside can you bring it in before you leave he was like this is for actual execs at the actual company who make actual trades I was like oh okay gotcha gotcha gotcha let me go sit down | |
Sam Parr | that's actually hilarious he just like totally dismissed you but what about | |
Shaan Puri | but let me finish the story about the hackers so let's put you let's let's test your criminal mastermind which I love I love doing this by the way how would I how would I cheat if I was gonna do it way you | |
Sam Parr | know that it's always the women always think to themselves how would I get away from this bad person trying to hurt me and the men always think in this in the they're they align with the criminal be the bad person yeah like how would I get away with this crime that's like a I I I realized that after watching a lot of true crime and so go ahead I like this experiment | |
Shaan Puri | so you're the hackers you get this but here's the problem you they're like sam we got it we hacked him you know dave over here in the corner did it he got into this he got root access and they print out all of the press releases coming out but they put it on your desk they're like hey we got like an hour we gotta make a trade and now there's 60,000 press releases on your desk what do you do | |
Sam Parr | I guess pick like a random 5 and and and act on those as soon as yeah I mean it's that's that's a very challenging situation I guess | |
Shaan Puri | it's a it's a challenge to so like take | |
Sam Parr | the the the first five and if it's good news buy the stock if it's bad news somehow short it but I don't even know how to do that so I guess I would only find like the 5 good news ones | |
Shaan Puri | right you're like I think I would still just end up holding the index fund vanguard I think I'd just pay doing exactly what I always do 80 20 stocks and bonds baby so what what they ended up doing was they were like alright you you sort of need to do a search function to figure out what news affects the price the most in a positive or negative direction and I think what they figured out was that it was merger announcements that would be the highest volatility for the company that was getting acquired because it almost always gets acquired at like a 50% premium to where the stock was trading and so I think what they realized was we need to be able to quickly discard 98% of the news and information because it's noise right which goes back to the same experiment right the most of the news information is noise the secret is figuring out what is actually signal and most of us can't do that and we overestimate our ability to figure out signal versus noise and so they they figured out the signal it was these merger things and they even they were only right in their predictive ability about 70 something% of the time it was enough to make 100 of 1,000,000 of dollars very quickly before they got caught for doing this and then they all went to jail but isn't that cool also I think that's the ending | |
Sam Parr | when we sold to hub when we sold to hubspot I think the share price I think it was $350 and then like the week they announced it it went to like $460 or something like this anyone can go back and look at it it was february of 21 and | |
Shaan Puri | damn sam the needle mover over here | |
Sam Parr | well so that that stock price went up like I I guess it's a market cap of like 1 or $2,000,000,000 and I remember going to kip the cmo I go you're welcome he's like oh yeah it was this acquisition that got mentioned one time in our earnings call it just barely it wasn't the fact that we had just announced that we grew by 45% and have been compounding growth of like this this this and I was like | |
Shaan Puri | yeah yeah causation is difficult to prove yeah I agree | |
Sam Parr | yeah I'm like you don't understand man can I tell you alright so we 2 or 3 years ago we talked about ai girlfriends I sort of understood it because I like have actually developed like pretty good friendships mostly via text messages I think a lot of people who have group messages here feel the same way I didn't entirely understand it but in the last 2 or 3 months I've been using chat gpt in a way that now I'm like yeah if this would go away I would be very upset and I understand why people were very upset when their when their ai girlfriends the | |
Shaan Puri | replica got when they did like a software update | |
Sam Parr | yeah and so it basically I've been using chatgpt as like my thought partner / assistant / therapist and you actually said something recently that made it a lot better so I sat down and I'll explain how I've used it but I sat down and I said hey can you ask me all the questions that a therapist or a life coach or an executive coach would ask and we could spend a few hours with just me downloading giving you a download of my life and I did that and since then it's been magical and I've been using it for all types of purposes I use it all day and and I wanna maybe explain to you how I'm using it maybe you could explain to me if you are doing the same which I think you are and how you're using it | |
Shaan Puri | right by the way I'll just give you a quick one my prompt that I used yesterday for this I said I I was explaining the situation I go ask me a few questions one at a time then when you feel you have enough info then try to give me a suggestion because otherwise it just tries to like you know man you know like mansplaining or what what is it called when like guys hear like your girlfriend is explaining something to you and you're trying to fix the problem right away she's like no I'm not trying to get the fix right now I just want you to hear me and understand me and you're like what like I thought you just want the answer as fast possible shoved in your throat and like that's what chatchippity does by default | |
Sam Parr | it's it's yeah and there's a bunch of other downsides that I I wanna explain to all of this and how I'm working around it but first I I'm using it for a variety of things so I'm using it for personal finance stuff and I'll give an example for each in a second I'm using it for business questions I'm using it as like a sparring thought partner of like I'm thinking about doing this what's your opinion I'm using it as a therapist of like you know I'm struggling with this person at work or my personal life how should I handle this or what should my life goals be and I'm also using it for helping me decide which task so I'll give you an example so for net worth I use kubera kubera is like a net worth tracker you just log in with your bank accounts and all your accounts and it tells you your net worth whatever well they actually have a feature where you can download the information specifically for chatgbt and you upload it and it doesn't have any identifying information it's not like it has passwords it just has a bunch of numbers and so you can I will upload this to chatgbt and I'll say things like you know I'm I I like to be conservative like what would you rate this portfolio out of 10 of risk or you know like what's your opinion on it like what would warren buffett say you can ask it all types of questions like that or you could also say like you know how much should I spend on a house or what will my net worth be in 20 years like things like that and it's been actually really amazing another thing that I did was I took the main kpis from my company and I uploaded it to it and I'll be like what are the needle moving things that I can do for this company and you could do your kpis which is typically like an excel spreadsheet like your company's churn new users things like that you can also do your company financials and then another thing that I've been doing is I will actually take screenshots of my calendar and I'll upload it and be like what task should I be doing for the next week the next month the next quarter to get to the goals that I've told you about you know my life goals which by the way you helped me create you helped me create quarterly and annual goals how should I be spending my time today tomorrow next week and next and it will it gives me an agenda that I literally print out and I work according to that it's like pretty wild and that's why I've been using it and then all day I'll be like how should I reply to this email what's your opinion it's kinda crazy so that's how I've been using it | |
Shaan Puri | it's like you have neuralink they just never did the surgery right like you're basically putting ai like as the you know operator in your brain in many ways but you're just like you know we just haven't reached that tech? Where where the chip is already implanted itself | |
Sam Parr | next step of that is here's what's gonna happen there's gonna be software it probably exists and I'm tinkering with a few of them that records your computer screen your phone screen the words that you say out loud the things you type and it's gonna and it's gonna give you feedback on how you spent your day it's gonna give you feedback on what to do things like that so it's gonna like you know how they there's a book I forget what the book is but the premise is Google knows more than you because you are more honest in your Google searches than you are when you talk to your spouse or your friends or whatever the same thing happens when it's like yeah you know I I spend this much time working on this this and this and I'll just be like no you did not spend that much time doing it and also you told me that you're trying to be nicer you wrote like 8 really mean emails do you know what I mean like that's how it's going to be in the next 6 months I think there's gonna be products like that that are actually nailing that | |
Shaan Puri | yeah I think the the ceo of Microsoft I don't know if you heard this story but I guess when ballmer stepped down and they needed a new ceo and at the time Microsoft was kind of in a downward downward to flat it was it was an uninspired stock and company at the time so they needed something and I don't know if you heard the story so the guy who became the ceo satya nadella actually wrote a a memo like he wrote a kind of like a a manifesto an internal manifesto about like where what what Microsoft needs to do and he ends up getting the job and at the time it was like he's like I didn't he's like I never thought I'd be the ceo of Microsoft like you know you join bill gates as the ceo or whatever and then ballmer and he just assumed they're always gonna bring in somebody but they actually promoted him from within and he he wrote this thing and one of the key principles that he wrote in this this was a while back when he | |
Sam Parr | wrote year like 05 or 10 or something | |
Shaan Puri | this was in 2014 so he wrote he we bet on 2 things I don't remember the second one but I remember the first one he called ambient intelligence and ambient intelligence is kinda what you're describing which is basically like how do you have you know computer intelligence artificial intelligence but just like kind of on and be like kind of in your in your environment so that it can be helpful to you so it just knows what you need without you having to go fetch it without you having to go ask specifically it can either anticipate it it can be aware of all of your context so that you don't have to like first explain the whole situation and then be able to just ask your question it already knows your situation so you could just ask the question that sort of thing and so isn't that cool that he you know like so so long before and you know openai wasn't even incorporated at that. Or something like that this is this is a very long time ago so to bet on that as like one of the 2 like ways that the tech puck is going pretty baller | |
Sam Parr | which is shockingly hard by the way it's hard to make make these predictions and remove like the limiter part of your brain and just imagine like yeah but what would be what would be amazing you know like what would be cool if if it then that's actually that sounds easy it's it's really hard because you constantly think like well I can't do that you know like because that's impossible or that would cost too much money like there's all these limiters but the way that I've been using this like if like it doesn't work perfect yet though by the way this is like there's a a few issues with this and I am like super not technical the first thing is contextual or context windows like the more you talk to it it doesn't always learn more you actually it runs out of memory in a weird way and and so I've been testing like a variety of different platforms gemini versus chat gpt but I wanna use chat gpt because I think it's gonna be around the longest and they're gonna innovate the fastest but it's not perfect at all but it's like shocking how useful this is I finally for a long time I'm like yeah ai is great like I can look to like Google a stat and it's gonna tell me but now it's more like this is my life like I am using this more than anything and so like they had their new $200 a month thing come out and I don't even think I need the features but I'm like whatever I'll take it and so I've like contemplated contemplating like should I like invest a little bit of money into like building up these systems just for my personal operating system and like making my life great and keep in mind I don't know anything about any of this shit I just know that it's it's just effective like it just literally is helping me get my day done better and it's like a great bit of advice I'll like here's a really another like practical way I mean you I'll upload my measurements for my body and I'll be like find me clothes that fit or like does this fit does this pair of pants fit and you just like post a link like I just I've been using it constantly I guess how are you if you are using it to be like this like sparring thought partner | |
Shaan Puri | yeah yeah well I think this is the key so so what we're saying is basically the way that I think by default people will use this is you ask a question it gives an answer and actually a equally if not more powerful way is to do the exact opposite you basically say I have a I'm trying to think about this ask me questions and then you and you get it to ask you the questions and then in that way it's your sparring partner it is your thought partner in like kind of fleshing out or or getting your own clarity around a situation and and it's available 247 it doesn't judge it's it's you know super super intelligent but also has like you know empathy you can you can go back and forth instantly it's always available and there's no lag time right so better than a friend right | |
Sam Parr | you know you have a friend who you bitch to and you're like I just need to vent and like just give me like what should I do here but you kind of feel guilty like laying everything on them or making it all about you and like they don't quite understand exactly what you're talking about this is just that person but better | |
Shaan Puri | it's one of the right main reasons why coaches and therapists are great because you're like cool we're gonna have a completely one way conversation here yeah like I I don't even gotta give you nothing I can come here and be a taker and that's the arrangement and like you know I gave you the money that's what that was for and now from there on out I don't need to consider your feelings in this interaction that sounds like ruthless but it's true it's why it's different than just just talking to a friend whereas a friend you gotta be like sorry am I taking up too much of your time I don't mean to put all of this on you blah blah blah you know you're like you're always trying to like kind of half apologize and then reciprocate and one of the cool things about a therapist or coach is like that's not the social contract that's not what's expected in that situation ai is even better it's like hey sorry to bug you at 1 am I just I'd like to talk right now and I have like instant responses with complete intelligence and I'll just keep saying no tell me you know no try again until I get something that's satisfactory to me it's like you couldn't even treat a human like that right so it's pretty great to be able to do that | |
Sam Parr | it's become strange I call it dude sometimes I'm like dude what's your problem that's wrong stop getting these done like like like it's it's it's strange because if you think about it when you're texting your friends like it's because it's like in the same window or next to the same window on your computer like you kind of forget that this is a machine and you can train it how to talk it's very strange but it's actually quite effective | |
Shaan Puri | do you know how an llm works no you know what like deep learning is no I went and watched some videos the other day just to get like because I was like how is this magic magicking what is going on here there's one by this guy I think it's called like 3 brown 1 blue is like his his username or something like that it's got millions of views and he explains you know like what is deep learning which is like the technique that worked with ai and the second thing was you know how large language models work what does it even mean what is large what is a language model what does that what does that even do but check this out so okay like here's the example that that that I gave okay so this is me not even trying to explain to you what it is because my explanation is gonna be pretty bad this is me just saying I can't believe that this is what actually is happening I cannot fathom that this is the actual scenario okay so let's take this example I wrote this I put this on a card because like I can't forget this I'll never forget what I learned alright so imagine this number 7 right so let's say you're trying to train ai to be able to see that this is 7 how do you do that you can hard code it but well every time you see the number 7 it's like a captcha right it's like written a little bit differently so it's like you can't just say this is exactly a 7 cause you write your 7 slightly different than me maybe you put the little line through it maybe you have a little angle to it whatever right so you just want it to be able to recognize anybody's handwriting and figure out 7 or not 7 right what number is it so how does it work so imagine basically a classroom okay so here's a row of kids so there's 10 kids standing there and each of the 10 kids is like holding one of these cards with a different number on it right but actually it doesn't have the whole number so or actually they have the whole number but for at first it just says alright there's a whole index card we gotta figure out we don't even know if this is a 7 or a dog or a car it could be anything right so it just zooms in and it says let's look at this little section right here like these 20 pixels okay these 20 pixels you know on this area it's white so if you got color there sit down kids anybody who's got color over here sit down because this picture is white over here can't be can't be you you're eliminated and then over here it's like hey there's some blue ink something is here so if you got blue ink in this little section stay standing if you don't sit down right so that like eliminates a bunch of you know like kind of thought processes so then it passes it to the next layer the next layer of 10 kids and it says alright who here has got this flat line okay so the the sevens stay standing the fives stay standing you know the threes are kinda like hey we got some stuff up here up top the eights but you know the 4 the number 4 doesn't have a little roof on top so it's like I'm out I'm out and you're like okay go sit down it's like paintball right you're out go go to sit on the side and then so now you're left with like you know some of the numbers and then it says alright we got a little little stick over here who's got a stick over there and it's like the threes are like oh I'm out now that's not me but the sevens and the fives are like hey we're still in it might be us right bingo and so you just keep passing it from layer to layer showing it like kinda more pixels on the screen and it's trying to get with some level of confidence at the end right it's gonna be 7 and maybe 5 at the end and the 7's like yo I'm 90% sure it's me and the 5 is like yeah it's maybe 10% that it's me it's just a ugly 5 and then that's how the ai knows that this is a 7 because it passes it from layer to layer to layer to layer looking at the pixels on the screen and basically trying to figure out trying to guess is it is it one of you I think with some probability it's this okay so that's just recognizing a number okay now imagine what you're doing you're giving it kpis of your company it has to understand what a kpi is what a company is that you were looking for strategy what strategy sounds like it's gotta say something that you as a successful businessperson who sold your companies for you know tens of 1,000,000 of dollars that you will respect the output of this like isn't that mind blowing that that's even a thing and so that now you take how does that work so it now you take instead of the 7 take an example where it's like the dog blanked right so it's like what's gonna come after you know it it basically sees a sentence the dog or the dog | |
Sam Parr | it's like what's a dog and what do they commonly do | |
Shaan Puri | it doesn't even know that it has no idea what a dog is there's no meaning it just has it read the whole internet so what they did was they were like hey go read the whole internet which like if you or I we were like yo sam I gotta like let's do this man we could do this we're gonna take so much adderall we'll stay up all night and we're gonna read 247 all the text on the internet it would be like 1000 of years before we could ever ingest what you know what they gave it in one training run right so they said go read all the internet cool done alright now user puts in a sentence the dog blank guess what guess what the next token is guess what the next little word is that comes after the dog the dog it's like the dog barked the dog jumped the dog you know is hungry right whatever it could be like one of many things so then it takes the next word which might be like the dog barked and then it passes that phrase back through it's like now you've got the phrase the dog barked what comes after that and it just loops that over and over again to generate the next word so that's when you see chat gpt writing | |
Sam Parr | mhmm | |
Shaan Puri | it's literally taking like the the next token it thinks it should say then it feeds it back through and then says okay well if I said if I said the dog barked then I gotta say it loudly right okay loudly. If I said the dog barked loudly what would I say next and then it would it would keep and it keeps recursively doing that and that's what's actually that's how it it generates the training thing right that and that's like you know this is only part of it half explained correctly but let's assume for a second that I'm not like completely misinterpreting this let's assume for a second that this is only you know a percentage of what I what is actually going on right there's still parameters and weights and all this other stuff that I haven't even talked about yet this is like god right this is like like how is this even a thing it's so mind blowing to | |
Sam Parr | me it's mind blowing it's absolutely mind blowing and I think that you know I think young you know I don't hang around like 18 year olds I think they're using it for school so I think they get it I think I know a a little bit about it because I hang out with smart people and I'm on the outskirts of like what these guys are doing so I kinda see it online I play with it for the average joe for my mom and dad for a 35 year old who isn't like tech savvy who just works as a mechanic I don't think that they're using it this way I don't think they're using it at all and it's gonna change everything it's just like so like crazy like when the average joe starts getting into this I think young people like a 21 year old or something I think it's like changing schools by the way it's like the grading system is like totally effed up right yeah yeah like when I like think about this I'm like like this is like there is no homework you can't do homework anymore you know what I mean it's like dm | |
Shaan Puri | ed me yesterday it's not just homework someone dm ed me last night they were showing me this guy oliver oliver ham he texted me this thing or did dm me this thing he said coding interviews like so okay you school yeah kids in school are using chatsumi write essays and the teachers are like fuck how do we how are we get it's a cat and mouse game to try to be like hey how do I stop you from using ai to just like do your assignments well the same thing is true for coding interviews so coding interviews which are used to hire programmers there's this website leetcode wizard.i0 and basically it just helps you cheat on your coding interview it's like oh you got a coding test to get a job just use this watch it'll write all it's the same thing as a student it'll write the essay for you basically and it's like you know doing $15 a month in referring revenue I'm just helping people cheat on coding interviews | |
Sam Parr | this is insane | |
Shaan Puri | it's so difficult right but it's kind of amazing | |
Sam Parr | how are you using this every day | |
Shaan Puri | like let me just go to chat gpt and just tell you like my last | |
Sam Parr | is chat gpt your tool of choice or do you like any of the other ones | |
Shaan Puri | yeah it is my like default and then you know I play with everything else so usually if I'm like how factually correct does this need to be all perplexity so I go to perplexity if it's analysis I'll use chap cpu like have you used like the o one stuff like the deeper thinking stuff | |
Sam Parr | only for 24 or 48 hours yeah it's brand new but yeah it's it's wild it takes a long time but it's wild | |
Shaan Puri | well that yeah that's the. Of it it's basically if you told the computer hey you don't have to just quickly like again shove an answer down my throat instantaneously where you're just predicting the next token and good enough to go right there's 70% chance it's this word let's just put it in they found they could get you could do more interesting tasks if you just said hey just take your time before you answer just give it more time to think and then it'll come up with a better answer it's temperamental which is amazing so I use that but like check this out so there was this press release recently for we were talking about ivf remember yeah well it's kind of this amazing thing I don't know if you saw it it's called fertilo did you see what happened with this thing called fertilo so basically it was like the first live birth using eggs that matured outside the body so like if you've done ivf it's it's like a pretty expensive and pretty like harsh thing on the body like the woman has to get like injections which are hormone injections to try to get your they're trying to get your eggs to essentially mature be produced and mature inside your body and so what fertilo did was they were like cool instead of doing that like long expensive sorta hard on your body process we can take an immature egg take it out of the body and let's do the hormones hormone stuff out of the body and get it to mature and then we'll put it back in the body and so it just like removes the the pain from from the process and the first like actual live birth happened of a baby that was born using that procedure it's kind of amazing if true it's gonna make you know it's gonna change ivf you know it's gonna make it where I don't know if it'll just be called a new procedure or what but basically for you know a fraction of the cost a fraction of the time and a fraction of the pain we can do the thing that we've been doing with ivf okay so dude it makes | |
Sam Parr | me realize that I think that sahil I forget his last name from gumroad tweeted this like thing out where everyone made fun of him where he talked about how he's like giving birth is not gonna happen in the future you're just gonna be in this sack and that's how you're gonna grow this is that I'm like oh shit you're right you know what I mean dude I remember we were at | |
Shaan Puri | a dinner and jess ma just said it casually in passing she was like yeah like you know I'm really you know excited for and fascinated by basically like artificial wombs and basically you know you know you won't give women won't give birth at a certain. Right it'll be like riding horses for transport it's like you you could do it if you if you wanna go have a unique experience and she's like it won't be necessary | |
Sam Parr | and she's like pass the pass the mashed potatoes and you're like wait wait wait wait | |
Shaan Puri | yeah so no like like literally that's exactly what happened and I was like and at the table I looked around and be like was anybody else mind blown by that what what's going on like don't we all want more information about that but I'm at I was at this like far diagonal 7 peep people away but I heard her say it and I'm stuck over here talking about facebook ads with some dork and I'm like just I wanna get out of this side of the table and get to that side of the table so so after the dinner | |
Sam Parr | jess what did you say about wombs | |
Shaan Puri | literally I flagged her down I was like oh you're getting an uber hey cancel that real quick and she canceled it and I was like what was that thing you were talking about and then she explained and she explained the companies that she's tracking and like where we are in the scientific life cycle of like how real is that possibility and how what are the laws of physics is that inevitable or is it impossible right because basically if something is not impossible it's inevitable which in itself is kind of a dope idea but right like that already kinda blows my mind and so she was explaining it so you know I've sort of been paying attention to any signs of movement in that area because I think that's really cool the world's gonna change pretty dramatically when that happens but what I did back to the ai thing I just threw the press release into chatgpt and I said explain this article to me tell me what they're saying tell me what this means in simple terms it's a press release and so it might be misleading or overstating the success of this so tell me about that too and then it just goes here's what it means in simpler terms this company has achieved what they call the world's first healthy baby born with a woman's egg that was matured outside of her body normally in ivf the doctors are doing abc in this scenario what they're doing is a b c and then it explains it and he goes in simpler terms the conventional path is x the new approach is y why it matters if this is true blah blah blah blah and then it says here's why it might be misleading it's a press release so it's definitely a spin number 2 one success doesn't prove a trend it talks about the world's first but it doesn't mention how many others they've tried that have failed in the hit rate of this procedure it's not peer reviewed it might be exaggerating the future impact we would need to know clinical trials blah blah blah and then you know then I asked it more I was like cool what is the what is the scientific literature say about this so all of a sudden I'm getting like a quick biology lesson another one brainstorming name ideas for a project I'm like hey here's the project | |
Sam Parr | great for that | |
Shaan Puri | ask me questions about the project and then come up with names then it comes up with dorky names I'm like no make the names not dorky and long and don't make it feel like it's written by chad gpt make it feel like it's written by david ogilvy and then it comes up with different answers a lot of financial analysis so analyzing stocks or just like yo I see cathie wood on my screen a lot like is she actually like great at investing and then ai is like | |
Sam Parr | gosh she's cold monkey I see cathie wood on my screen | |
Shaan Puri | is she just hot or good at trading right it's like you know they're asking these questions and again no judgment she gives me the answers which was spoiler no she underperforms the indexes and has over like a 15 year. And makes a $100,000,000 a year to underperform the index like wow good on you cathy wood for you know for for for doing that let's see there's just other ones hey I'm trying to do this in excel but I don't know how to do it can you just tell me the function I need to write in because like you know if you go Google this stuff you get like youtube videos you have to watch yeah so now I'm like alright forget the youtube video just give me the like the exact typed thing I need to go type in or I'll screenshot the excel window and I'll just say I'm trying to figure out in column c what are the ones blah blah blah blah and it gives me this like complicated you know whatever count ifs formula that's as multiple like selectors or whatever oh I play games with my kids so we take pictures of like my son got all these sharks and so we just took a picture because he's asked me questions right like dada what is this shark and I'm like dude shit if I know right like you know it's it's kind of like something I always dreaded as a parent like oh cool my kid's gonna ask me questions that I you know where does rain come from and I'm like it's in the clouds it's like well how do you get in the clouds I'm like I think it was in the ocean and then it just like zipped up there because it was hot or something and then I go my god this is gonna be terrible I'm gonna expose myself and so I just do chat gpt voice mode and I'll be like I'll send it a picture and I'll go voice mode I'll be like hey tell me what these sharks are from left to right and it reads it out to my kids and then my kid can ask a question he'll be like which one is the strongest shark and it'll be like actually the great white shark is the strongest shark with the most powerful bite and he'll be like no but what if it was with a cheetah and he'd be like well the cheetah wouldn't be in the ocean but if it was in the ocean and they're like it it'll like interact with my kids and we have like a fun time they'll they'll tell me all the time can we play with ai | |
Sam Parr | dude that's so good I've got a bunch of friends whose children are like 3 4 5 talking age and they like are doing the exact same thing | |
Shaan Puri | let me I wanna do trivia another hack for parents you can go hey I'm sitting here with my 2 kids their names are you know whatever timmy and tommy and we're gonna we wanna do paw patrol trivia ask us easy questions and when we're right say ding ding ding and when we're wrong say that's not right try again and keep track of the scores alright go literally you could just say that to it in voice mode and it'd be like alright first question marshall is a pup known for what and you're like fire and it's like ding ding ding correct 123 | |
Sam Parr | gonna like fall in love with with with her like it's pretty crazy how the like imagine being you know raised with this this is insane the I'll give you let me give 3 practical ways I'm using it so they have this new thing called I think it's new ish called projects and so I have 3 folders right now and the way it works is you have like a folder as a project and then you could upload files to the project and then you could have multiple conversations within the project and it refers back to the files or whatever information | |
Shaan Puri | give me an example this | |
Sam Parr | is about it so what what like let me give you | |
Shaan Puri | an example in there I have | |
Sam Parr | a health folder and so you know how everyone has like their own health guru and it's like usually based off of like one book they read well I go and download your book yeah well I go and I download the book that I ascribe to and I will upload and I if it's a book that's epub which is how I buy it on kindle I convert it to dot text file because that's easier to read and I upload the dot text file to the | |
Shaan Puri | even though it's like huge because it's a book that works I give it | |
Sam Parr | a full book I the full book I download it and I convert it and then like so for example we were going to the grocery store today and I just said like you know there's like this interesting book I just read and I upload the I've uploaded the book and I would just say make the grocery list for me and and then it'll and I'll tell me actually and I'll say which grocery store should I go to in my area and it knows where I live and it says yeah like these 3 grocery stores will have exactly what you need I think they will have what you need because like you know I'm on this like clean meat kick or whatever and he was like yeah the author says like to buy this cut of meat and you should ask the butcher this this and this and like here's 3 butchers that appear to have what you need and it's all based off of like the files that I've uploaded for health but then within health I can ask it it know I'll like hey this quarter I wanna run a 5 k at this particular time give me like a good app to use that can help track my running and also tell me like what my goal should be so that's like a a couple health versions the second one is I've got a clothing one where I literally took a photo of myself and I used a tape measure to measure various parts of my body and I upload it to it and I was like alright like make a chart with all my measurements thank you remember that always here's some like clothing that I wanna buy here's the links can you like go and figure out what size it is and let me know like what fit and they're like well these pants that it says that they're the same width as your thigh but you actually want like 2 inches usually extra width that that'll probably feel more comfortable or what I'll do is I'll upload like a blog that I like dye workwear blog and I'll say hey here's a picture literally lay a tie next to a jacket and I'll take a picture of it and I'll upload it and I'll be like does this tie match this jacket and I'll be like no but that other tie that you showed me a picture of a while ago that actually would look great here it's like that's how I use it and then the final way that I use it and this is like my life coach folder which is like it's like partially like I'll complain to it and I'll be like you know I noticed you've been complaining about this a lot or I'll upload business financials to it and that's like more of like my sparring partner throughout the day and so I have 3 folders right now health clothing and like a life coach and so those are like the practical ways and I'm using projects that's the that's the term on chat gbt and that's why I'm using it as of now | |
Shaan Puri | dude people are just gonna replace their cofounder with with this right like you're gonna see a lot more solo founders because you could just have an ai cofounder | |
Sam Parr | you're gonna say well you know you'll reduce churn if you use this messaging when you email your users and then you're just gonna say yeah well you have my login to mailchimp like or shopify let's go ahead yeah get it done or you'll be like you know my shopify store is like a 2.1 conversion rate and it's like hey I you know we ran this ab test it like increased your conversion rate to 3% and you're like get after it you know go do it and that's what's gonna happen and so anyway we've had these intelligent people at dharmesh whatever explain to us all these things but it wasn't until the last 2 months and in fact recently actually since you told me to ask him the ask chat gbt that question that like I'm like oh my god this is my life now and in fact you actually sent out a wonderful email the other day where you said here's how to ask powerful questions I uploaded that email to chat gbt and I'm like remember these questions and like ask me them often or ask yourself these questions often | |
Shaan Puri | yeah I mean it's just so it's incredible and it's also so obvious that I think that chat gpt is I mean it is the Google of our generation and I guess the only question is like why am I not why am I not a shareholder of openai like what how do I how do I go to sleep at night | |
Sam Parr | well I mean you dharmesh had to buy a $10,000,000 domain and then convince them to buy it in order to become a shareholder so like it's like like ask you like that's that's like way though there is always a way | |
Shaan Puri | tried everything | |
Sam Parr | oh but that's like saying like why am I not a billionaire it's like well like you could be but like here's some of the barriers to entry that you've gotta overcome so there's certainly you should ask chat gpt that by the way | |
Shaan Puri | it's a good question by the way why am I not a billionaire | |
Sam Parr | it is a great question but like there | |
Shaan Puri | have you ever asked yourself that question I asked a friend that question and they weren't even really that close of a friend so it was kind of a you know it was a blunt question to ask at a dinner I was like why are you not already a billionaire and he gave a great answer and he goes or actually what he was saying was you know I wanna start a $1,000,000,000 company and I was like why have you not already done that and he goes I think when I was starting these other companies that I started he goes I didn't actually understand what a $1,000,000,000 company looked like and if I had known that I would have built a different company and he was he was correct and and you know as we dug in it's like what makes a company a $1,000,000,000 company like you know there's really only a couple of paths to that and you know one of them for example is like building something that has network effect so he had been building companies that could do like great revenues they could be even be profitable they could grow fast like you know those are some of the things you need but there was no network effect there was no durability there was no defensibility there was no like win the category it was like just go to a category where you can win inside that category but there will be other winners and you will also | |
Sam Parr | be now | |
Shaan Puri | it was like just for as an example that was like a a gaming company it's like there's a lot of mobile gaming companies and at the time like to build to to build a $1,000,000,000 gaming company require like you really had to be like one of the like you know 3 that were gonna get built in a 5 year window right like you had to build you know clash of clans or you had to build candy crush or you had to build like one of those and even in one of those it was like oh actually you know I'm sitting here tinkering on cool game designs and actually the thing I need to do is build a enormous paid marketing team that is like. The top the top paid marketers in the world to acquire 100 of millions of customers is what I need to do and like the cool artsy game design that's gonna win me awards is not gonna that's not what a $1,000,000,000 gaming company looks like so he just didn't understand the shape of something and I I find that that to be I find that to be true about most of the goals so instead of how can I do this goal another way of saying it is why have I not already done this goal why is it not already true for me and then it points out some like you know either knowledge gaps or execution gaps that are today that that are like more more close to your timeline versus when you set like an ambitious goal that's like far in the future and you sort of bake in that it's gonna take a long time you sort of avoid the maybe the harsh realities that might be actually existing today in your world about those | |
Sam Parr | yeah you had a great email with a bunch of those questions it was here's a here's a bunch of decision making questions which is I'm not sure I'm not sure what should I do instead you should say what would I do if I weren't afraid one bad question is how can I make this succeed the better question is what would make this certainly fail and a final example is I can't decide which path is the right to pick a better question or better version of that is what path makes for the best story this is actually a a a pretty good email I think I replied I said this was a 10 but you had like a list of better questions and I used those questions in chat gpt because what you're what I'm learning with chat gpt is you have to get it to ask you better questions in order to you know its input is important for its output and so yeah I pretty much stole that email | |
Shaan Puri | yeah the I think the the realization was tim first had said something way back I think I put it in the in the email but he had he used this phrase he goes he was talking about it in the in the in the podcasting realm but first first he had this quote yeah you can read it out | |
Sam Parr | he goes if you want confusion and heartache ask vague questions if you want uncommon clarity and results ask uncommonly clear questions often all that stands between you and what you want is a better set of questions | |
Shaan Puri | exactly and he said this about his podcast he goes I view questions as like a a pickaxe for the brain like you know like a pickaxe when you're summiting a mountain and you you you use it to list or like pierce the the the side of the mountain and and use it to pull yourself up and so in many ways you are excavating the brain with this pickaxe and your pickaxe is questions another phrase I use all the time in businesses is ask a better question get a better answer so often if somebody asks a bad question and I'll call a bad question either a vague question open end question or a question in the wrong direction I think the rookie move is just to answer a question at face value like you should not answer 100% of the questions asked like a lot of the questions need to bounce back to sender oh this has the wrong address on it you gotta write a better address on that this won't get delivered the way you've written this address is not gonna get delivered and and so you you bounce back some questions and say maybe the better question to ask is blank for example like you know instead of how can we succeed which is like a 1000000 paths all unknown it's what would make this certainly a failure that's much more knowable and we can we can establish a few ground rules from that question and get some momentum towards this and you could see this with your brain just like if you ask you know they call it prompt engineering when it comes for ai right being able to ask the ai in a certain way that's gonna get you a better result absolutely the same thing is true for yourself and for people around you to ask better questions right | |
Sam Parr | I do I | |
Shaan Puri | I I ask annoyingly stupid questions to my team all the time like it'll be one question I love to ask is what are we stupid for not doing right now and it's just that question it comes loaded with a presumption that there's something stupid we're doing of course there is we're always doing stupid things and specifically what are we stupid for not doing right now meaning what is an obvious low hanging fruit that's in our face and we're out here searching for the complex when the simple stupidly obvious thing is is here and you know I I would say more than 50% of the time there's a useful answer to that question but if you didn't ask that question it would just go unspoken in your company right so like how many are those another one that I learned from amazon is amazon asked this thing in the if you're like if you're an exec that leads a team you have to like write this document at the end of the year called the op one I think it's the operating plan 1 and you you do it 2 a year right the operating plan 1 and then you have the operating plan 2 halfway through the year | |
Sam Parr | was that effective | |
Shaan Puri | yeah | |
Sam Parr | it's great | |
Shaan Puri | I'm I'm a fan of the amazon writing culture it's easy to make fun of also and easy to do wrong but when done right super effective so one of the things that they one of the like common questions that they ask in that is what are the dogs not barking and it's back to that sherlock holmes story where he solves the case because he's like and they're like how did you know sherlock and he's like because there's like a house break in they're trying to figure out who did it and he's like well it was the dog of course they could put the dog the dog didn't do anything he goes exactly the dog didn't bark which means he must have recognized the person that broke in which means it must have been the you know the housekeeper or whatever right and so in your business there's what are the dogs not barking is a good way of asking what are the things that there's there's really like I I interpret in 2 ways 1 is what are the things we should be hearing that we're not so for example 1 week I didn't send out my friday email and I just sat there and I was like | |
Sam Parr | like you want me to complain about it | |
Shaan Puri | emails being like hey where's the friday thing man I love that oh I didn't get that okay dog not barking right and then I had changed how I did the friday emails because of that it's like well why'd you make that pivot it's like because I I did jenga dude I took a block out and the tower was fine nothing nothing fell down I'm trying to only have like I'm trying to be an email in your inbox that if I remove that email your life got worse you know you and you you want you wanna speak to the manager where's my goddamn email right like if doordash doesn't deliver your food you're you're you're knocking on the door I wanna be at least more powerful than the doordash delivery right like that that's that's what I'm striving for and so that's one way of interpreting it the other way is what are the problems that you don't hear about yet but are certainly there that's another way to think about the dogs not barking is like you know anticipate a problem around the corner because we know it's gonna be there but we just haven't heard it yet but you know we we can anticipate it and maybe get ahead of it | |
Sam Parr | dude I'm telling you there's gonna be a world probably in 3 years where you're gonna like so the issue that a lot of smart people like you and me and people listening is like you're like well I'm really smart and I feel like I'm wise and I feel like I know what to do but like it's a lot of work and then like literally the I the the idea guys are going to thrive in 5 years or the wise people because there's gonna be ai agents doing all of this for you you know what I mean like you're not gonna have to actually do that work you're just your your opinions | |
Shaan Puri | or your taste don't matter right because then who's why can't the ai do the idea part 2 right who's the same person too | |
Sam Parr | that's it's not you're not I don't think you want | |
Shaan Puri | so so then what right and then then that's when the brain breaks and you're like I guess it's over then and I'm not sure | |
Sam Parr | wait so you're actually afraid | |
Shaan Puri | yeah kind of like I I don't wanna say afraid because I'm not like you know quivering in my boots about it but I guess like I don't have a satisfying answer and for most things in my life I got a pretty satisfying answer sometimes the answer is just I'll deal with it when it happens right I'll just adjust right and I could feel safe I could feel comfortable with that that's usually my fail safe with this one it's kinda like so when the ai can do everything right which is like it seems like it's a matter of when not if at this? Okay and it's like seems like it's in my lifetime probably in the next 10 years it could do the work but it can also figure out what the work to be done is alright well I guess like I'm less afraid of the like oh and then it's gonna crush human humans and try to you know it'll go rogue and it'll it'll attack us like I'm not as afraid of that as I am just like the what's the. Of all this what's the. Of doing any of this stuff if that's gonna be true and that's kind of just like a a weird place to land | |
Sam Parr | so you wanna end there what the fuck right | |
Shaan Puri | podcasts are all that safe dude | |
Sam Parr | no they're not no they're not perplexity has a daily podcast that's really good they just take the news that as great and then they or no it's not perplexity it's what's the thing 11 labs 11 labs has they use like a stephen fry voice and they read the news I listen to it it's awesome it's not safe we're not safe no one's safe maybe like a plumber a plumber's safe | |
Shaan Puri | well I actually think our strategy is pretty genius because we are getting stupider alright just like we dumb ourselves down and ai is trying to get smarter and so there's actually a white space in the market for some just imperfect knowledge some some half baked ideas and some some some incorrectness I think we've really I think we've stumbled onto something I think we might be the last one standing in this whole podcast game it's us and theo vonn it's just like the dumbest conversations on earth are gonna be all that's left because the ai is gonna do all the smart ones | |
Sam Parr | maybe it may I mean I I don't know maybe | |
Shaan Puri | mark andreessen should be scared right now not us | |
Sam Parr | dude yeah the smart guys are fucked like the smart guys built they the smart guys are digging their own graves they're like their shovels are clanking together on accident as they're like digging the same grave they're like oh sorry my bad it's like they don't realize that you guys are going into this grave in about a year is there a | |
Shaan Puri | name on the tombstone yeah that's weird there must be a problem | |
Sam Parr | is there another mark here yes 2 mark andreesens like they think that they're like they're like we're putting the blue collar guy in his grave and we're gonna outsource his fucking job they're like I've never mister adresen are you here like you know | |
Shaan Puri | what I mean dude I found my my new sick burn in the tiktok comments you know there's all these tiktok clips of podcasts like we should probably be doing this but we don't really do it very much but like people just clip you know podcast sick snippets and that's like a lot of tiktoks and the more viral the more basically the more outrageous the comment in the in the podcast the more viral the tiktok clip because you're gonna get a bunch of comments being like this is no that's wrong that's stupid that's whatever and I saw the best one it was just the top top liked comment on a podcast clip which is it just said podcasting equipment is way too readily available this is like damn anybody can just get a microphone now that's how I feel when I see a lot of these clips I'm like wow this shit is these microphones are way too easy to access | |
Sam Parr | have you heard that song another white boy with a podcast | |
Shaan Puri | no what's that song | |
Sam Parr | yes it's a song called another white boy with a podcast goddamn how did I not think of that it's sorta like that like finance 64 blue eyes it just says like joe rogan like it just says like a bunch of like random phrases but it's called another white | |
Shaan Puri | boy with a podcast | |
Sam Parr | song on the way out of this | |
Shaan Puri | that'll be our outro alright cue the music | |
Sam Parr | a podcast crypto jim bro bill prep | |
Shaan Puri | small spend | |
Sam Parr | and fast so smart and funny we should make a party we buy mics we get chairs we sit down we play stairs we're gonna be billionaires just don't forget to like and share oh another white boy with a podcast |