How to Navigate the Upcoming Depression | My First Million Podcast | 03-24-2020
Teachable Acquisition, Airbnb, and Y Combinator Startups - April 3, 2020 (almost 5 years ago) • 54:14
Transcript:
| Start Time | Speaker | Text |
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Shaan Puri | What up | |
Sam Parr | nothing it's been a crazy few days I got my car broken into last night | |
Shaan Puri | Oh no! Front, was there something in it? Or you're just talking about the San Francisco break-in?
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Sam Parr |
I have a garage I didn't park in. My car's back window was broken into and someone stole my little $200 battery that jump-starts the car. It cost $400 to fix it. It just sucks.
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Shaan Puri | yeah | |
Sam Parr | I'm also pretty sure I have corona | |
Shaan Puri | oh no you're feeling it | |
Sam Parr | Yeah, Adam, like Adam Ryan, my coworker, he confirmed he has it. He lives in Austin, though, but I'm pretty sure I have it.
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Shaan Puri | were you in contact with him or you just think you have it in general | |
Sam Parr | I just think I have it | |
Shaan Puri | oh no | |
Sam Parr | I was going to the office up until Thursday, but I thought that was okay because I was the only one in the office.
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Shaan Puri | right | |
Sam Parr |
And I didn't... I didn't see... Yeah, Alan was only there one of the other days, and I didn't see or talk to anyone. I drove in, parked on the street, and just walked right up. I feel like shit, but not *that* bad. Not bad enough that I can't do stuff, but... you know.
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Shaan Puri | that's a bummer | |
Sam Parr | what's going on with you | |
Shaan Puri | well on the bright side for you you got to talk to your hero | |
Sam Parr |
Yeah, so the other day... For the listeners, me and Sean are extra UFC nerds. One of my favorite guys is... Is he your favorite? You like him?
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Shaan Puri | I like him but he's not my favorite guy I feel like you I feel connected to | |
Sam Parr |
Him? Yeah, so basically his name is Ben Askren. He's interesting because he's very polarizing. I would say he has more people who hate him than love him, but the people who love him *really* love him, and the people who hate him *really* hate him.
So, last week I gave a lecture on cold emailing, and literally the day before, I just cold tweeted at him. Then we became friends in the inbox, and we just did like a conference call. We've been chatting and that was awesome.
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Shaan Puri | and what was your cold tweet at him | |
Sam Parr |
He tweeted out a podcast that he liked, and I tweeted, "Oh hey, I was actually on that same podcast like 2 months ago." And then I DM'ed him the episode. I said, "Hey, I was just on that. I see you're doing X, Y, and Z. I do this, this, and this. I just like you, but... if you ever wanna like shoot the shit, let me know."
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Shaan Puri | That's amazing! And then you had a call with him? He's a cool guy. Are you guys going to hang out and be best friends or what?
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Sam Parr |
I pray... I'm trying to convince Ben. Okay, so Ben Askren is... he's kinda like this: I think the people who like him are like the Jordan Peterson crowd. Like the people who never had good fathers and want to learn how to be men.
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Shaan Puri | you know | |
Sam Parr |
What I mean... yeah, like disciplined even though he's kind of a loudmouth. And I'm like, "Dude, Ben, you have to... you could like copy all... you could, in the same way Dave Asprey has built this huge thing, you could do that too by selling workout stuff." I'm trying to convince him to do that.
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Shaan Puri | Yeah, he has a very big brand and he has a very unique personality. So, I could see that working for him.
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Sam Parr |
Yeah, and I'm trying to convince him to do that. He's based in Wisconsin, so I don't know if he has a whole bunch of internet nerds hanging out with him that truly understand what he's capable of. I'm trying to be his nerdy friend.
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Shaan Puri | That's good. Fighters don't have a very long shelf life; like, he's retired now. So, you know, they have to figure out the second act.
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Sam Parr |
Well, he told me he has a wrestling academy and that they're not in session right now. So he's like, "I got a lot of free time," and I asked him if he wanted to come on here. He said yeah, so if you want him to come on in the next couple of days or weeks, we totally can do it.
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Shaan Puri | Yeah, we should do a brainstorm with Ben on what Ben can do. Like, what would I do if I was Ben? I think it'd be cool to brainstorm those ideas.
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Sam Parr | I'm gonna write that down I'll email him right after this cool | |
Shaan Puri |
And we'll research a bunch of things that other athletes or celebrities have done to leverage their name and brand, kind of like what we were talking about with Lance Armstrong. Yeah, and the same conversation we had with Lance... we should do a full app with Ben on that.
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Sam Parr | I'll I'll set that up great | |
Shaan Puri | you wanna talk about some new stuff that's going around sure | |
Sam Parr | okay so first thing teachable you see teachable sold | |
Shaan Puri | I did see that | |
Sam Parr | Teachable is like Udemy. I hate comparing things because I don't want to be disrespectful to Teachable, but Teachable is like Udemy.
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Shaan Puri | It's like Udemy with one core difference.
So, Udemy is where you go to find what you want to learn. Teachable, on the other hand, allows you to create your own website, like coldemailing.com, where you can sell your course under your own brand. They make it easy; you don't have to know how to code to basically set up an online class on your own website.
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Sam Parr | yeah and you and I are friends you're I think you are too right | |
Shaan Puri | I don't know the guy, but I'm really familiar with the thing. People know I'm an education nerd, so I was very fascinated by their business. They did a pretty phenomenal job. They were at like $20,000,000 or so in revenue. I think they sold for closer to $200,000,000 or $250,000,000, something like that.
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Sam Parr | I talked to Encore, that's the guy who founded it. He said that it was very lucrative and it worked out quite well.
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Shaan Puri | yeah | |
Sam Parr | so I'm I'm super I'm proud of that | |
Shaan Puri | Their last round was at $250,000,000. I don't know if it sold at the same price, which was recently. I don't know if it sold at that price or above that. Even that would be kind of amazing.
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Sam Parr | I don't know. All I know is that it was a good deal for him. He is an immigrant from India and came here at age 18. I love the story.
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Shaan Puri | And I believe they have several teachers who use Teachable and make over $1,000,000. Something like that. I think they have some real success stories, maybe not.
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Sam Parr | that's what he told me | |
Shaan Puri | it might it might not be a million I don't know exactly | |
Sam Parr | no for no there there there are 7 figure annual earners | |
Shaan Puri | Yeah, they're mostly like affiliate marketer types, I think. But whatever, let's not worry about it. It's like when you say "teachers," people think of an English teacher, and it's actually like, you know, some...
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Sam Parr | Well, he told me that one of the top earners was a guy who has an Excel class.
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Shaan Puri |
Yeah, I've seen that. You could actually Google this - I've done it many times. You can search for "highest revenue teachable classes" or something similar, and you can find the list. I think they even have it on their website.
The most popular classes include:
- Social media marketing
- How to use Excel
- Coding
There are a bunch of those types of courses.
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Sam Parr | Did you do a podcast by yourself? I don't listen to any of our podcasts, by the way, because, right, you don't ever listen to your own stuff. Did you?
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Shaan Puri | I don't even listen to my voice mail | |
Sam Parr | Yeah, that's hilarious! Let alone you talking for a long time. Did you launch your individual episode?
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Shaan Puri | So, I have two episodes. I did one on Thursday but didn't launch it because I thought it sucked.
Then, our editor, I think, has coronavirus as well. He's been in and out of the hospital and he has an underlying lung condition, so he's trying to make sure he doesn't... | |
Sam Parr | didn't know that | |
Shaan Puri | You know, I got in a bad spot, so he didn't publish it. I was like, "You know, I got cold feet. I gotta either ship it right away or I'll overthink it." That's how I am.
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Sam Parr | you should do it | |
Shaan Puri | And so, he listened to it and said, "What are you talking about? This is good!" So, we're going to ship that. I have two episodes banked.
At the end of the last one, I had this idea during the podcast to do a morning routine segment. So, like, you're in your house right now, right? You're in your kitchen, and we're all at home. Everyone's getting a little crazy and trying to figure out, "Oh, I'm going to work out by opening and closing the fridge 50 times." People are trying to find a way to feel good and not go insane.
I've had this morning routine I've done for years now. It's a 9-minute morning routine. On the podcast, I thought, "I should just make a podcast that's just that—this 9-minute morning routine." You can listen to it; it's just free, so I put it out there. I recorded that last night, so I have two episodes in the bank plus the morning routine segment recorded. Hopefully, all those will come out this week.
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Sam Parr | are you working out | |
Shaan Puri | Yeah, I'm working out. So, we have a home gym, or like a room that we turned into a gym, and now I'm using the heck out of it.
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Sam Parr | I have a home gym in my garage. It's a nice one. I've got a squat rack that cost around ÂŁ400, a heavy bag, and all types of equipment.
I talked to a guy the other day who was a listener or something like that. He messaged me on Twitter and said that their home fitness equipment is selling like crazy. He's like, "We can't keep up."
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Shaan Puri | up hotcakes | |
Sam Parr | I ordered $1,000 worth of weights on Amazon last year with free shipping.
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Shaan Puri | Yeah, the delivery on weights is insane. I felt so guilty because the guy bringing it up to my house, like up to 15 steps, is breaking his back for this thing I'm never gonna use. So, I bought those Bowflex dumbbells, which is like one dumbbell.
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Sam Parr | that's what I have | |
Shaan Puri | power blocks you rotate it and it like can be any weight you want those are actually pretty handy | |
Sam Parr | Yeah, I know. I have those; those are my favorite. Do you want to talk about Airbnb?
Oh, so next week we could do the trend stuff. We wanted to talk about trend stuff, but I think we have a lot here. Do you want to talk about Airbnb now?
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Shaan Puri | We have a lot to cover, so we're going to do two things. First, we're going to talk a little bit about Airbnb. Then, we're going to start this thing that we teased last week, which is Y Combinator's demo day. It's like a gold mine of new ideas.
You know, YC is like Harvard for startups. So, we're going to take a look at this batch of companies, and we're going to break them down. We'll do about five or six of them today, and if it's fun, we might do the rest. I mean, the list is over 100 companies, so I don't know how long we can do this, but let's aim for five today and see what happens. We'll cover both of these topics in this episode.
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Sam Parr | did you wanna do | |
Shaan Puri | let's start airbnb first though | |
Sam Parr | yeah do it | |
Shaan Puri | So, Airbnb... some interesting things are going on. Airbnb, as you know, is an awesome company and one of the most successful startups of the last decade or so. It was about to go public this year and was preparing for it.
Now, with coronavirus, travel has stopped. Hospitality, including hotels and casinos, is taking a total beating, and Airbnb is, of course, going to get caught up in the crossfire as well.
A couple of interesting things here: financially, Airbnb's revenue must have dropped by 50%, 60%, 70%, or even 80% essentially overnight, with an indefinite time span. We don't know how long this is going to last.
The second thing is that Airbnb not only has a huge staff on payroll, but now their revenue has dropped. All the hosts are essentially small entrepreneurs. Some people did the traditional thing and just rented out an extra bedroom in their house, but a lot of people, once they got a taste of that money, started buying places, renting out places, and subleasing them, basically putting them on Airbnb.
Now, all those people who had a moneymaker for a couple of years have seen their income go to zero. I think there's something very interesting that’s going to happen. What will happen to all these hosts who got places just to Airbnb them, and now their income has totally dried up? Are they going to default on their mortgages? Are they going to default on their rent payments if they're subleasing? Or are they going to turn into just normal rentals? I don't know what's going to happen, but what do you think about all this?
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Sam Parr | so you already know what's going on in zillow you're the one who told me right | |
Shaan Puri | Well, I did see some charts. Yes, I saw some charts that basically showed on Zillow normal housing. So just normal rentals, not a short-term Airbnb stay, but just here's an apartment for lease for six months.
It's exploding! It looks like the coronavirus is affecting this. Here's last month: one little blue dot. This month: 15 blue dots on the map. The number of listings is exploding for rentals, which is also bad for Airbnb.
In places like San Francisco, where there's a housing shortage, Airbnb has been saying, "Oh, we don't contribute to the housing shortage. We're a different thing altogether." Well, now it actually kind of looks like, whether it's truly the proof or not, I don't know.
But it certainly does look like if you're someone who was anti-Airbnb, you have a lot of evidence and a lot of ammunition now to say, "Hey, look! When we turned Airbnb off, look at how much more housing supply came on the market. Look how that lowers rents for everybody here."
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Sam Parr |
Well, you know what Airbnb is doing now though? They're getting into long-term rentals. They've been expanding into that for a while, where you could rent something for many months, maybe even years. And that part of their business is still growing... it's actually growing a lot right now.
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Shaan Puri | Right, and so I'm curious whether people in cities who are anti-Airbnb are going to take this and run with it. Yes, Airbnb is very sensitive to legislation. They changed some rules here in San Francisco where it's like you can only do 90 days out of the year, and you have to live in the place. You have to prove that... blah, blah, blah.
That, you know, eliminated like 30 or 40% of the listings overnight when that legislation happened a year or two ago. Now, I wonder if it's going to get worse.
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Sam Parr | sander you know sander I'm googling them right now you know them | |
Shaan Puri | no oh that's the like it's the the hotel or explain sonder | |
Sam Parr |
It's basically if you are traveling for work and you want to go stay somewhere, you'll stay at a Sonder often. Let's see... I'll go to sonder.com.
It's also if you want to stay somewhere for like 3 months. Let's say you're going somewhere for 3 months and you want to... and you have to make a lot of money in order to do this. It's high-end stuff. Like in San Francisco, it's like $5,000 or $6,000 a month.
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Shaan Puri | right | |
Sam Parr | Need a place to stay or work? We know it's time here. The best parts of home and hotel come together. It's like an apartment that you can rent for 2 months.
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Shaan Puri | right so the corporate housing but done well | |
Sam Parr | Yes, but they just laid off 20% of their company. It looks like... oh wow, yeah, today.
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Shaan Puri | Yeah, breaking news! I think this is going to be very interesting to see how these different companies get affected. You know, I'm rooting for Airbnb. I think it's a great product and a great company. I hope that they have a war chest of cash that lets them endure this time, but you know, we'll see. I'm keeping an eye on this.
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Sam Parr |
If you could invest a little bit, you can go and buy secondary shares. If you're going to invest money at Airbnb's previous valuation... I think they raised money on a $30 billion valuation. Would you invest in that right now?
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Shaan Puri | what I need to know more right I need to know about the how the company's financials look and how | |
Sam Parr | To do more, let's say revenue drops 70% for this quarter.
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Shaan Puri | I'm not so concerned about the 70% drop because I think that's more temporary. I just need to know, do they have enough cash in the bank to endure this? Or do they...? I think.
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Sam Parr | they have $3,000,000,000 okay | |
Shaan Puri | So the $33,000,000,000... you know, they're probably burning several million a month. But like, okay, $3,000,000,000 should still last you through this time.
Then the other question is: Were the fundamentals good to begin with? A lot of times, these companies don't have great unit economics or fundamentals to begin with. So when the downturn comes and people start looking for things that are more stable, more sure bets, these high-growth but poor unit economic companies struggle. | |
Sam Parr | they were profitable in 2018 | |
Shaan Puri | dude I love this this is like an analyst call I I can | |
Sam Parr | And I think they're also profitable. In 2019, this is all public information.
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Shaan Puri | Right, so yeah, if they're profitable right now, even with this explosive growth, then yeah, it's probably a pretty good bet to pick up a little secondary there. | |
Sam Parr | Okay, I guess we'll see what happens. Do you want to talk about some Y Combinator stuff?
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Shaan Puri |
Yeah, so we're going to go through a couple of the companies in the batch. You know, these are... well, we won't say anything that's too... what I'll call "too private information." So we'll do what's mostly public information about these companies. We'll start with the first one.
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Sam Parr | Wait, Sean, before we get into that, dude, can I tell you something that was striking about this list? How many lists were there? A hundred and fifty?
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Shaan Puri | yeah | |
Sam Parr | Shockingly, Africa, African, and Indian based. | |
Shaan Puri | Yes, this has been a trend in the last year or two for Y Combinator. They did two things: they went on a roadshow. Michael Siebel, who was the CEO of YC for a while—actually, he might still be—went on a roadshow through Africa and India. He met a bunch of entrepreneurs, had a bunch of events, and they sort of opened up the doors to those applicants. They really got people excited about coming to YC.
Their bet was that, "Hey, look, a lot of the growth opportunity in the best companies is that we can go fish in this pond where not everybody else is fishing." Certainly, 500 Startups did this many years ago, where they invested in companies all around the world. This has not been the sort of way that most Silicon Valley investors have been operating. They're not actively going and hunting for great companies in India, Brazil, or Africa.
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Sam Parr | But yeah, it's pretty amazing how, like, I see a lot of Latin America, a ton of India, and a ton of Africa.
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Shaan Puri | And what's funny is a lot of them are just, you know, Flexport for Brazil. It's like this other successful YC company, and we do.
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Sam Parr | the same exact thing once tagline is smile direct club for latin america | |
Shaan Puri | right yeah that that's literally it | |
Sam Parr | Yeah, Flexport for India—or, sorry, Flexport for Africa. Yeah, it's pretty crazy, and I think that's a great move. | |
Shaan Puri | Yeah, for sure. A lot of these companies that work, when they're not purely software-based, they're going to scale slowly. They're not going to expand everywhere overnight.
The same thing happened to Airbnb. Airbnb got cloned in Europe and in all different parts of the world. Sometimes they were able to catch up and beat them; most of the time they weren't. They had to buy a piece of them or acquire them, or they just lost. They said, "Okay, I guess we're not going to be the number one player in the UK. We're going to be 2 or 3."
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Sam Parr | it works | |
Shaan Puri | the house yeah and so well | |
Sam Parr | you wanna you wanna smart you wanna start it off | |
Shaan Puri | Yeah, so let's do Cron. Cron is an app; the website is just cron.app. What these guys are trying to do is essentially create **Superhuman** for your calendar.
That assumes you know what **Superhuman** is, which is this really slick and very hyped email client. I used it for a while, but I stopped. I don't know about you—have you used **Superhuman**?
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Sam Parr | I'm still using it. The verdict's still up: I love it! But their tagline, for people who don't know, is "Superhuman is the calendar for professionals."
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Shaan Puri | Right, so their thesis is: look, the market for calendar users, if you just take Google Calendar, is 500 million people.
What they're trying to do is target the top set of prosumers—professionals who really care about efficiency and are heavy power users of the calendar app. They're asking, "Can we get the top x%?" They said the top 20%, but really, it's going to end up being the top 2% of people who will pay $19 a month to have their Google Calendar on steroids.
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Sam Parr | What's 1% of 500,000,000? Is that 50,000,000? Wait, no, that's 5,000,000.
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Shaan Puri | yeah that's 5,000,000 | |
Sam Parr | okay | |
Shaan Puri | So, 5,000,000 people paying $19 a month? Not bad.
They're trying to go after that. They basically made a very slick-looking calendar. Aesthetically, it looks better. They have hotkeys and little short commands.
Oh, you want to set up a meeting? It's hard to say, "Oh, I'm free Tuesday from 1 to 2 and Thursday from 3 to 4." Instead, you just share your availability and make it really easy.
They have a bunch of these features, and they have 1,000 users on the waitlist who are ready to pay. They've onboarded the first 50 paying customers so far.
They're doing that thing that Y Combinator (YC) companies do. You'll see this a lot: a big idea and then good traction, but over a very short amount of time. So, you can't really judge if this is successful or not yet. | |
Sam Parr | and it says like 50% month over month growth but it's been like 6 weeks | |
Shaan Puri | But it's been 6 weeks, and 100% of those companies were other companies in the YC batch. Right? So it's like, you know, it's hard to really get a sense of these things. But I thought that's a pretty interesting idea. What do you think about this?
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Sam Parr | Okay, so if I were this guy, I would bet my life that this could be a company that makes a **ton of profit**.
The nearest competitor that I could think of is **Calendly**. Calendly is a plug-in for Gmail; it's a **$30 million a year** company that's bootstrapped out of Atlanta, started by a guy who moved here from, I think, Nigeria.
Cool story. Andrew Wilkinson, a guy I respect and like, thinks that Calendly is... or I think he thinks it's total **bullshit** and that Google could totally clone it. I disagree with that assessment. I think that **Krone** can for sure be a very, very profitable software company.
I'm not convinced that they should raise venture capital because, yeah, I wouldn't raise venture capital if I were them. If they needed money just to start, I would say raise **$1 million** and just make this... make it **stupidly profitable**.
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Shaan Puri |
Right, yeah, that's what I would do. The route they're going because they're NYC... but yeah, I hear that. I think that's a valid path.
I don't think they're gonna need a ton of capital. There's not a big... they don't need a huge engineering force. They don't have to buy a bunch of assets, you know? This is a software play that really a motivated team of 6 to 10 people could knock out of the park.
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Sam Parr | If I was listening to this podcast, I would say, and I was technical, I would be like, "Oh, that is a great idea!" Their website, if you go there right now, kind of shows how the product works, and I would just completely rip it off.
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Shaan Puri | right | |
Sam Parr | And scale, but be far more scrappy. I don't think these companies out here are scrappy. I think that someone could build it and be able to pay themselves $5,000,000 a year in net income.
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Shaan Puri | Yeah, you know, I think this is a good idea. I also like this general genre of company. Our friend Sully tipped me off to this a while ago. He said, "I just think superhuman for X is a good investment thesis right now."
He loves Superhuman; he loves the business, and it's doing really well. We were looking at this company called Linear, which is a bug tracking software. Every big software company tracks their bugs, usually using Jira or some old-school ticketing system. Nobody loves using Jira; it's just a must. You have to be organized around your bugs.
Linear just made a slick-looking version of Jira. We talked to them and thought about investing in them. Did you? I didn't end up investing. It was a bit of a competitive round, and I could have gotten in at the end, but I sort of cooled on it.
When I tried to bring it into our company, there were a lot of security concerns. Not that they were doing something wrong, but you just have to do a lot of work to be enterprise security compliant and pass those checks. They hadn't done that work yet.
Now, in reality, they're going to do that work; it's going to be fine, and they're going to get there. It's just that it got out of sight, out of mind for me because I stopped using them and forgot about the email thread.
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Sam Parr | and you're making investments right now | |
Shaan Puri | No, now I'm on startup investments. I have cooled off for the time being. There's a...
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Sam Parr | me too | |
Shaan Puri | a freeze | |
Sam Parr | so okay so verdict on krone how do you say | |
Shaan Puri | it krone | |
Sam Parr | The Krone verdict for me is that it's a great company to own. I think it will work. I don't know if it's good to raise money on. | |
Shaan Puri | Yeah, I agree. I think it's a good idea and a good product.
I believe there are other products like this. If you just take Superhuman for X and you take any work tool that's massively used, and you just make an extremely slick UI/UX for that, this can work with to-do lists, this can work with email, and this can work with calendars as well.
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Sam Parr | You know how I would do that? I would log in to Gmail. I'm going to log in to Gmail right now. I would click that little...
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Shaan Puri | the drop down arrow | |
Sam Parr | The drop-down, no, the Google Apps thing on the top right. I would look at Search, Gmail, Calendar, Docs, Drive, Sheets, Slides, Sites, Groups, Contacts, Hangouts, and I would just think, "Oh wow, there's way more!" YouTube, Maps, News, Translate, Photos, Admin, My Business.
I would just put that on a bull's eye or a dartboard, close my eyes, and just... there it is. That's what you do.
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Shaan Puri | Airtable did this for Excel. Notion did this for docs. Superhuman did it for email. | |
Sam Parr | there's a new one that's doing it for presentations | |
Shaan Puri | yeah so let's let's talk about that | |
Sam Parr | I don't know much about it it's called pitch.io right or pitch.co | |
Shaan Puri | I I think it's pitch.co if I remember correctly | |
Sam Parr | is it awesome or something I don't know like why are people talking about it so much no | |
Shaan Puri | it's pitch.com dude they got the com that's like that's how that's how you know it's legit | |
Sam Parr | that's like a $100,000 domain name what what why are people talking about that so much | |
Shaan Puri | So, I saw this for the first time. This is, again, just like Airtable did for Excel; these guys are trying to do the same for PowerPoint.
PowerPoint also has hundreds of millions of users. It's a critical business function, and Microsoft does not improve the UI/UX over time. They do not implement smart features in the cloud.
On the low end, you have Google Docs, Google Sheets, and Google Slides. On the high end, you currently have Microsoft PowerPoint. These guys are trying to do a better job of creating a more attractive PowerPoint. I'm all for a "sexy" PowerPoint.
I have always loved their website; it looks great—Pitch.com. It seems like it's ready to launch now. I've seen this website for over a year, I believe maybe two years.
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Sam Parr | Based on the people who are recommending it on their homepage, I feel like I know the people behind this.
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Shaan Puri | yeah it's like you're friends with all the testimonials | |
Sam Parr | Yeah, great! I'm very... yep, I like that. I don't know anything about it other than what I'm seeing on this website. And yeah, awesome! | |
Shaan Puri | So, this is one where I think it's a great market to go after. Your execution obviously has to be good, but that's okay. It's better than going after a bad market because then even great execution doesn't do jack shit for you.
I have another one that's like this on the Excel side called Causal. I've been talking to these guys. I'm not quite enough; I don't think I'm like an official adviser, but I just give these guys a lot of opinions.
So, Causal basically tries to give everyone the ability to do data modeling like an Excel wizard or a data scientist.
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Sam Parr | that's awesome hard but that's awesome | |
Shaan Puri | And so, they have some cool things. You should just Google "Causal's Rent versus Buy Calculator." You can see what the end output looks like. They make this calculator for rent versus buy.
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Sam Parr | how do you spell that | |
Shaan Puri | Causal. That's **causalapp.com**. If you just Google "Causal app rent versus buy," you could see it. It's a cool tool.
I don't think they've quite got it to work. I'm telling them they're trying to make it too... they're basically too smart. So they're trying to do data modeling and data science, and like, "Oh, look how easy it is to make a linear regression or Monte Carlo."
It's like, yeah, but you don't do that frequently. You should just make it where it's really pleasurable and easy to do simple formulas and spit out awesome charts.
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Sam Parr | like just | |
Shaan Puri | Do that because what Airtable did was take the part of Excel that's just rows of information and make that sexy.
But what they didn't do is calculation. People use Excel for calculation and charting, and Airtable doesn't do that.
So if you did the calculation and charting and made it beautiful and sexy, you could win. These guys aren't doing that. | |
Sam Parr | I'm looking at Causal now. It's awesome! On Pitch.com, I changed my opinion; they're going to fail.
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Shaan Puri | okay why | |
Sam Parr | I went to their about page and they have 9 employees and they're all founders | |
Shaan Puri | oh yeah that's a that's a bit of a red flag yeah literally it's dude | |
Sam Parr | On their about page, they have 9 people listed as co-founders for every employee. Yeah, that ain't gonna work. | |
Shaan Puri | these are also like amazing headshots that they took for themselves | |
Sam Parr | yeah so I just wanted to | |
Shaan Puri | a cofounder and a qa engineer | |
Sam Parr | it says cofounder next to all of them | |
Shaan Puri | Yeah, they're pretty legit investors.
Okay, so, yeah, Andrea is an investor in them. I'm excited to see what they got. I want to see it; it's been 2 years.
Okay, so let's go to the next company. The next one is Art in Res. The idea here is you can buy fine art in installments.
You know, I personally didn't know too much about the fine art market. I think my hunch is that you know a little bit more. I like to think you like to look into these things. So tell me what you think about this idea and what you know about the fine art market.
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Sam Parr | Yeah, so MasterClass is one of our partners. We work with MasterClass. I went and met with the founder; his name's Scott, in New York a couple of weeks ago, a couple of months ago, and I learned a lot.
So, fine art is one of the largest asset classes in the world. | |
Shaan Puri | but masterclass is not about art right or what what do you mean | |
Sam Parr | Sorry, Masterworks. So, Masterworks is a website where you can purchase pieces of a Basquiat or a Pablo Picasso in the same way that you buy stock in publicly traded markets. Fine art is a massive, massive asset class, but it's incredibly illiquid. You either have to have $30,000,000 to buy a Basquiat, or you don't get any upside.
What Masterworks is doing is allowing people to purchase it with a minimum of $1,000. What I learned from meeting with those guys was how great that asset class could be. For example, David Geffen from Geffen Records, a big entrepreneur, was famous during the financial crisis for saying that his fine art went up 30% while his normal equities went down significantly.
Let me see what else I have; I have a bunch of stats here. I think that's really interesting. If I wanted to look at how this company could do, I would look at Etsy. Etsy has traded at a 50 to 80 price-to-earnings ratio, which is really, really good. eBay right now is in the gutter, but I really think that marketplaces can be quite large.
I was personally shocked at how large fancy art is in terms of sales. I thought there were only a couple of paintings sold a year that made a difference, but in reality, it's not that way. So, what's your takeaway? Are you okay?
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Shaan Puri | Okay, so let me explain a little more about Artres from what we know.
Here's what they say: the value proposition is that you can buy fine art in installments. You were saying Masterworks lets you buy a piece of a piece of art; they sort of fractionalize it. These guys say it's yours, but you can have a monthly payment plan.
This has been a big trend in e-commerce. Anyone who's been paying attention to Affirm or Afterpay knows these are multibillion-dollar companies that are saying, "Even low-priced items, right? Here's a $40 item, but you can buy it in 4 easy installments of 10%."
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Sam Parr | And Affirm is doing quite well. Both of those companies are going to go public, or it's looking like they will.
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Shaan Puri | Right, Affirm is actually already public, and I think Affirm is going to go public as well. There’s more like Sezzle, and there are others that are doing this too. So, that's a very good business to be in, I believe.
What these guys are doing is they say they've sold $36,000 worth of art in three weeks. This is unlike Affirm and unlike Afterpay; they're not a payment option on other websites. They are their own marketplace.
What they're trying to do is give artists the ability to sell their work. They say most artists don't even sell their work, so they say, "List it here. We offer people the ability to buy in installments, so more people can buy." This way, they have more buyers in their pool.
They get the artist to put their link to their store, just like an Etsy store, in their bio. So, they put their Artin Rez link in the bio, and that's driving a lot of users. These are Instagram artists or artists with an Instagram who have, you know, 100,000 followers. They're getting in the bio of all these different artists, and that's going to drive traffic.
That's a lot like how SoundCloud grew early on. They went for these independent artists and said, "Cool, we'll give you an easy way to host your artwork"—in that case, music—but, you know, share your SoundCloud profile. That's how they got tons of traffic and built up their marketplace.
I think that's what these guys are trying to do. I think this is smart. The art market is one of those markets that's bigger than you think because you don't even learn about it until you're already rich. Once you're already rich, you don't start a company in it. So, I think it's one of those big invisible markets to most entrepreneurs who are scrappy and don't own, you know, like a pencil, let alone a piece of art.
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Sam Parr | I would have agreed with you. Before you start talking, I agreed that it was great. But then, the way you described it...
Okay, so I would be against it if Etsy is competent. They can destroy these guys.
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Shaan Puri | Yeah, I think it's going to be hard, though, because Etsy's niche is handmade crafts. I think that's just fundamentally different than fine art.
It's like putting a bottle of wine next to a Budweiser in the aisle. It's a little bit... I don't think the people who want their fine art to be sold or want to buy fine art want to be next to somebody who's making bracelets. That would be my bare case against that. | |
Sam Parr | Okay, I buy that. I buy that. But, oh, okay, I get it.
So, I see a painting on here. It's $3,000. I can pay over time for 24 months at $137.
So, my question is this: Is this "pay over time" feature even unique enough to build most of your company on top of? Why not just have a normal art store and install Affirm?
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Shaan Puri | Yeah, that's a good question. I don't know why they're not just using one of the existing installment plans. You know, why are they owning that piece of it? It's like an art marketplace, but then also this financing program, when they could just use one of the existing financing programs.
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Sam Parr | so I'm looking at it now yeah I I'm changing my mind it's stupid | |
Shaan Puri | okay we'll we'll we'll see jury's out on on ardent res I'm not an expert in this area but my well | |
Sam Parr | what's your bet | |
Shaan Puri | Something there... My bet would be that I think marketplaces are really, really hard to start. For that reason, I think that it's going to be incredibly difficult. They definitely haven't shown that they've done that yet.
So, I would say the odds are always against any marketplace being successful. But I do like the fundamentals of what they're trying to do. I don't think this is a stupid bet to take if you're an entrepreneur. However, I still think the likelihood is that it doesn't work, like most startups.
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Sam Parr | I think that, okay, but there's a difference here between working to build wealth and working by raising money.
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Shaan Puri | no I mean the business working not not raising money lots of companies can raise money | |
Sam Parr | Yeah, but what I mean is, should I think this? It for sure can make a living for the owners. The question is, if they raise money, then will it work or will it not? My prediction is, if they raise money, it's gonna fail. | |
Shaan Puri | I feel like that's your prediction with most things I think you just don't like when people raise money for the most part | |
Sam Parr | no the next one that we're gonna talk about karat I think that could work | |
Shaan Puri | okay alright let's talk about it | |
Sam Parr | Okay, so, Karat provides loans and a line of credit for influencers. That's interesting. The reason it's interesting is that I have a $1,000,000 line of credit with a company that provides lines of credit for media companies.
This clearly works in some cases. Can it work for influencers? Maybe.
The company that I use was started by a DreamWorks executive. It has over 100 employees and they have $1,000,000,000 in credit. I don't know how to describe it, but they have over $1,000,000,000 to deploy.
I think it's great because I'm totally hooked on their company and I don't plan on leaving. I think I pay them about $1,000 a month for this.
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Shaan Puri | what do you what do you use it for your company expenses or personal or what | |
Sam Parr | We don't really use it, but when a rainy day comes and we need money, I have that set up.
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Shaan Puri | Right, and so the other example here is Clearbank, where they're basically providing credit to e-commerce companies. They're saying, "Great, don't go raise money for this. If you can show that you're creditworthy by looking at your Shopify data, then we will front you the money you need for inventory, for Facebook ads, or whatever else you shouldn't go raise venture capital for to pay for Facebook ads."
The interesting thing here is that the big ideas, the real big ideas that come out of Y Combinator, don't always sound like big ideas to start. Airbnb is a great example of that. You know, when it was on YC's list, it would have been called "Air Bed and Breakfast." It would have been like, you know, "Rent out an air mattress in my apartment," and it would have seemed like a small idea.
This is one of those cases too, where it's like, do influencers really need credit? Do they really need loans? What do influencers need this for? It just turns out that there are a lot of influencers, and this might be a hidden big market. It might be something that influencers really do need this capital for. Their traditional banks and lending institutions don't know how to assess an influencer for creditworthiness in the same way that they didn't for e-commerce.
The question I have is: how does the influencer use that capital to invest and grow their business? Like for e-commerce, I get it. For your business, I get it. You're going to invest the money, you're going to grow your business. But what does an influencer really do to grow their business? Is it ads? Is it to pay for stunts? That's good content. What are they doing with this money?
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Sam Parr | That's a good question, and I don't think anything. But let me go a different angle here. When you bought your house, was your wife listed as an earner? Yes. Was she listed as self-employed?
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Shaan Puri | yes well what do you mean listed by like when we were | |
Sam Parr | Like, for example, when you got your mortgage... Sorry, when you got your mortgage, did she say that she was a sole proprietor? Yeah. Did you say that you're a 25% owner of a business?
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Shaan Puri | did I say that no | |
Sam Parr | okay when she was getting approved for the mortgage was it hard for her | |
Shaan Puri | No, she... well, it was a lot of paperwork, but it wasn't hard. She had the income to show it, but it just required more effort. Mine was simple; I just submitted a W-2, and they were like, "Yeah, got it. We understand your economics."
For her, she had this roller coaster history with a whole bunch of different entities and all this different stuff that was very, very hard for them. In fact, I just refinanced because the interest rates have dropped like crazy. We didn't even use her this time because the lady at the bank was like, "If we can, let's just do this off your income. I don't want to do all that paperwork again for your wife."
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Sam Parr | That's what I think the opportunity is when I try to buy a home. Because I'm an entrepreneur, I told them I own... I think the threshold's 20%. They said, "Do you own more than 25% of a business?" I said, "Yes."
They go, "Okay, we need to see the last X amount of years in P&L." I showed it to them, and it was profitable or whatever, and they still gave me a hard time. I think that if I was this company, Carrot, I would...
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Shaan Puri | think that there's a big opportunity who can provide home loan for | |
Sam Parr | Home loans for small business loans for small business owners. I think that's the real opportunity here.
Yeah, and maybe they... so here are some of the stats about them, right? They've loaned...
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Shaan Puri | Out of $1,000,000 in the last 6 months, the average payback is 45 days. So, it's an extremely fast payback, which means the APR is very high because of that. Even on a low APR, due to the fast payback, it annualizes at 40%.
Now, they're rolling out a credit card. After they do a credit card, I'm sure they want to get into other financial services. If they can be sort of the financial services for influencers, or the bank for influencers, that's very interesting. This will always be a niche market that is overlooked and misunderstood by the traditional banking system.
So, that's the bull case. The bear case is: I don't know what the influencers need this money for. I don't know if they can actually pay it back, and I don't know how creditworthy they actually are. | |
Sam Parr | So, the strategy here is you get into a market, you buy a ton of shares, and people like you and trust you. You're profiting, and then you start launching more and more stuff to them, which I personally love.
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Shaan Puri | which is the brex model in this case right | |
Sam Parr | Well, it's... yeah, and it's what I do. I mean, it's what I did for a living. We build up a free email list that we sell more stuff to, and then more, and then more, and then more. I mean, yeah, a lot of people do it, but you gotta get them locked in early, and you gotta get enough people.
So I think that that's cool, and that actually brings us to a good point. The next one... how do you pronounce this? And I'll tell you why. There's an angle here. What's this one called? How do you pronounce that?
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Shaan Puri | we're just gonna call it leela I don't know what it is it's leela I don't know I don't know how to | |
Sam Parr | They need to change their name because it's hard to pronounce, right? So, it's stupidly simple. It's a product that helps women freeze their eggs—pretty straightforward.
But what I think could be cool with these folks, as well as Carrot, is that once you get this customer on the hook, there are loads of products that you could sell them in the same way.
Hims started with Viagra and now is doing hair loss, and then they're thinking about doing testosterone and doing X and then doing Y, whatever. I think you could do the same thing for both Carrot really well, and this egg freezing one... hello, Lilia!
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Shaan Puri | Yeah, yeah, Lilia. I think that's how you say it. Bad name, great idea, great business. You know, this is one of those where you just close your eyes and invest. This is how I would treat it. | |
Sam Parr | Yeah, so here are some stats that I found. This is not from their deck; I just went and found this. Okay, and this number was shocking. Do you know that, according to CNBC, only about 11,000 people freeze their eggs a year?
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Shaan Puri | is that right | |
Sam Parr | It's not a lot... yeah, not a lot, but it's growing at **25% a year**. I actually buy that; I think it's going to grow significantly.
Gen Z, I think, are going to put it off more and more. I also think that large companies like **Facebook** and **Google** actually subsidize it and pay for it.
To get your eggs frozen, it costs between **$5,000 to $20,000** a year. If you're in **San Francisco**, it could be **$18,000**; if you're in a smaller city, it could be **$6,000**. So, it's really expensive. It's very invasive. It takes **4 to 6 weeks**, where you have to give shots in your arm, and it's like huge needles. It's just... it's intense.
But, you know, it's about having children, so it's a pretty big deal. You're willing to put up with all that.
My question is: will they be able to... will they be able to? So, first of all, there's not that huge of a market right now—**10,000 to 12,000** people. What would this new company be able to do to convince a young woman to use them as opposed to her doctor?
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Shaan Puri | Right, and the other existing services that surely exist around this... I don't know the competitive landscape, but I do like where all the trends are going.
I think that, you know, the data shows that people are having kids later and getting married later. This is becoming less fringe and less taboo over time. So, that's what's going in favor of this: more people. The market for egg freezing is growing, and it's becoming more serviceable.
Now, what I don't see here is some unique go-to-market strategy. "Oh, here's how they're going to acquire customers differently than how anybody else would." I also don't see them barely talking about their expertise and why they're going to be able to build trust in a way that's better or different than anybody else.
So, that's what I think is missing from this limited information we have here.
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Sam Parr | so you know how you and I talk about distribution and product | |
Shaan Puri | right | |
Sam Parr | and how oftentimes times product isn't an issue | |
Shaan Puri | sorry dog barking | |
Sam Parr | We talk about product and distribution and how a lot of people, particularly first-time entrepreneurs, think, "Well, if the product's good, it's going to sell itself." In reality, that's not the truth. There are way more great products that die because they have no distribution. Conversely, there are a ton of poor-quality products that succeed because their distribution is amazing.
In this case, in the same way that Hims is just reselling other people's products, right? Hims isn't interesting; it's just generic Viagra. Their product is nothing special. It's just that they slapped cute branding on it and made it so men can call and get it without feeling embarrassed about going to the doctor.
You need to see something like that from this company, I think, to know more. In order for it to work, because what the service they're offering doesn't seem particularly different.
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Shaan Puri | Right, yeah, exactly. They haven't made it less invasive, less painful, or less costly. They haven't innovated on the product side.
So that means they need to have innovated on the marketing side or the go-to-market side. That's what I don't like about this, but I love the space that they're in. I think there's going to be a winner. I don't know if it's this company or another, but that's what's great about this one.
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Sam Parr | Yeah, and let me see... do they have use? I don't know what... okay, here it is. I got some information on them.
We charge... okay, so it looks like what they're doing is they're not actually doing the work. They're just a middleman for the clinic. So, in reality, they're almost like lead generation.
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Shaan Puri | Yep, so they have a **$500** concierge service that they offer first. So, how do we educate you, handle you through the process, and basically qualify the lead?
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Sam Parr | Yeah, so what they're doing is they are not actually providing the service. They're just a marketing company for the service providers. If that's the case, I like this. I think it's cool. | |
Shaan Puri | I have a friend who runs a company called Eotherm. What they do is similar to dermatology telemedicine. They found that most people who need to see a dermatologist are going because of acne. Most of these individuals receive the same prescription, which is something they can quickly obtain from a doctor.
The biggest bottleneck is getting an appointment; it takes, on average, 27 days to see a dermatologist. So, what they did was build a marketing company that essentially says, "Hey, do you need to see a dermatologist? This is a faster, easier way to do it. Just do it via FaceTime with your doctor."
They have a network of doctors who frequently write the same prescriptions for the same acne medication, as that’s what people need 80% of the time. The other 20% of the time, they advise patients to see a doctor in person because it’s not just a generic issue. Additionally, they are white-labeling the actual acne medication and handling the delivery themselves. That's the gist of it.
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Sam Parr | how big is that | |
Shaan Puri | they're doing well | |
Sam Parr | **Fuck, I love that!**
Okay, so we talked about Kron Art, Res Carrot, and Lil Lilia. That's a stupid name.
You have $100,000 to put in one. Which one are you going to do?
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Shaan Puri | Alright, let's take a look. It's not going to be Kron for me. I'm also going to say it's not going to be Lulia because, even though I like the market for all those reasons we mentioned, I don't know why this is the winning company. I don't see them doing anything special. | |
Sam Parr | And this is what a lot of people have to understand: once you meet the person behind it, that could totally change your decision.
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Shaan Puri | for sure this is right | |
Sam Parr | This is not based on people at all. Because you could meet someone and you're like, "They're so formidable." That's like, "Dude, I don't care what you sell, I'm in."
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Shaan Puri | Right, I think if I was going to do this... This is crazy to me that I'm even saying this, but I think I would be putting it in Arden Rez. I think I would put it in because I believe that if they can get the marketplace spun up, it's going to be valuable.
I think that this is an overlooked marketplace. I like that it's a marketplace as a model, not lead generation or anything else.
On the other side, I have a feeling that the sort of fine art marketplace has not been affected by technology in the same way as all the other industries have. So, I'm curious to see what they can do.
I would bet the $100,000 on Arden Rez and would write it off as a loss because I would assume it's going to be a loss.
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Sam Parr | alright I would do cron | |
Shaan Puri | okay why cron | |
Sam Parr | I just think it's super easy for them to be in default survival. It's so easy. I think that they can get to like $100,000 in monthly revenue really fast. Their churn might be high, but I think that it's just because of the market size and because it's an impulse buy.
If this just saves you a little bit of time, I believe they can get to $10 million or $30 million in recurring revenue within 3 or 4 years with very little capital. So, their default alive pretty easily. Depending on how creative the entrepreneurs are, they could expand beyond that.
So, I'm going to go with Cron.
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Shaan Puri | okay I like that I don't | |
Sam Parr | know who would buy them though | |
Shaan Puri | Well, like for example, Microsoft bought Sunrise Calendar. I believe it was a calendar that people really liked; it was a professional calendar. They got bought for, I don't know how much, but I know Inbox got bought for $100,000,000 for making a slicker inbox, you know, by Google.
Then, sort of thrown away, Sunrise got bought. So, I think that there's potential for an acquisition there by one of the big companies that cares about enterprise and productivity and whatnot. So, there's a chance there.
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Sam Parr | I just wanna be evil and just clone | |
Shaan Puri | half of these things on | |
Sam Parr | this list yeah that's not evil that's that's not | |
Shaan Puri | evil that's just capitalism but I I do like I | |
Sam Parr | Some of these ideas I think are really stellar. I don't know, it's... I... | |
Shaan Puri | Can I tell you the one that I would invest in? It's not even one we discussed. I'll do it in 30 seconds.
The company is called **Duffel**. They're doing fast deliveries on college campuses, and so what they... it's a horrible...
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Sam Parr | idea but go ahead | |
Shaan Puri | Not horrible, not horrible. I'll tell you why. What they do is they buy the popular stuff that kids want, like Ben and Jerry's, chips, and whatnot—beer. They put it in an apartment and then deliver it to you on a scooter when you order it.
So, the average cart is $16, and they make $5 per delivery. They're delivering in a very lightweight way, within a tight geographic boundary, so they don't have a bunch of logistical issues.
There's a company called Puff, or Gopuff. Have you heard of those guys?
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Sam Parr | no what's that | |
Shaan Puri | It's this, but it's basically this. They're doing over $100,000,000 a year right now, and they're just two kids out of, I don't know, Penn State or something like that. I don't know where they are, but somewhere in middle America.
I've seen this model work. I think that this is a good business idea. Yeah, Puff or... I think the website's gopuff.com.
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Sam Parr | you're saying they do a 100,000,000 in sales | |
Shaan Puri | yeah more than that I believe and so they're in you can see all the different campuses that | |
Sam Parr | they're in profitable are they | |
Shaan Puri | I mean I don't know all that right I don't have all their financials but I | |
Sam Parr | Mean is $100,000,000,000. Like, their net profit, like, after they pay the driver... I mean, is it like where the driver gets most of the money and most of the... so?
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Shaan Puri |
They're at $163,000,000 a year. Wow! That's the thing, and I don't think they even raised that much money. Let me look at their fundraising for GoPuff... I don't think they raised too much. Oh no, they have now raised a lot!
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Sam Parr | how much | |
Shaan Puri | 800 and $66,000,000 | |
Sam Parr | oh oh oh you described it as 2 kids | |
Shaan Puri | Well, it was SoftBank that invested in them recently, and it's a huge round. So, SoftBank backed up the truck for them.
But anyway, I think this market works, and I actually think it's great that SoftBank backed up the truck and put the "touch of death" on this company. If I'm Duffel, I believe in what I'm doing. There's a lot of college campuses out there to make this work.
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Sam Parr | can I give you 2 that I would do right now | |
Shaan Puri | yeah of | |
Sam Parr | Of course, this is just purely off of reading about their market and a description of the company.
The first one is **BuildPlane.com**, which focuses on project automation for commercial construction. I think that with the recession, this can make the company a ton of money. Their previous companies were acquired, so they're solid. I just love software that is in boring industries like commercial construction that can help people save a little bit of money. It's called **BuildPlane**. I believe that will take off and be big. I like that it's not sexy.
Then the second one is **True North Fleet**. Did you see that one?
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Shaan Puri | I didn't see this no | |
Sam Parr | We give independent truckers the resources of large fleets. Basically, what they do is, you know, a lot of truckers are just small business owners. They're just like Uber drivers, but they drive trucks. My dad is in that industry, so that's how I know a lot about it.
They're pretty raw. Up until recently, they didn't use Twitter or anything like that. They would just have their CB radios and their cell phones. My dad would call them and say, "Hey, I got a load for you to go pick up in Bakersfield."
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Shaan Puri | then I need need you to drop | |
Sam Parr | It off at the Walmart in this place, like that's just how it would work. This company is building bits of software for small trucking businesses. I think people vastly underestimate how trucking is the backbone of America and how big logistics is in our country. So, I'm very bullish on that one.
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Shaan Puri | I like it. Okay, cool.
Yeah, if you like this, let us know. We're going to do either more of these Y Combinator (YC) sort of company deep dives since this batch list just came out. There are like 100 companies we could go through if we wanted to.
And if you don't like it, let us know. It'd be like, "That was boring, don't do it again."
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Sam Parr | Yeah, we can go through a few more next week. Sean, did you have topics already that you wanted to go over? We can do these next week.
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Shaan Puri | yeah we'll do them next week or we'll do them on thursday | |
Sam Parr | Thursday. Okay, well, thanks for listening. This one was a little ghetto because we're all at home. Hopefully, the quality was sufficient enough. | |
Shaan Puri | yeah I for 1 enjoy a ghetto pod but I'm just I hate it dude | |
Sam Parr | I hate it |