Megatrends Support 4th Place

A framework for identifying and capitalizing on megatrends, based on insights from successful investors and entrepreneurs.

What Makes a Megatrend

• Massive scale changes that affect large populations
• Examples of past megatrends:
  • Mobile technology revolution
  • Video content (all formats - short, long, live streaming)
  • GLP/weight loss drugs vs GPT/AI
• Even the "4th best way" to capitalize on a megatrend can be successful
• Megatrends simplify decision-making by helping ignore smaller opportunities

How to Spot Megatrends

• Look at mortality/health data
  • Top risk factors: smoking, high blood pressure, high blood sugar, obesity
• Study population demographics
  • Elderly population growing from under 1B to 2.5B
  • Working age population flattening
  • Young population declining
• Monitor air quality trends
  • Half world's population exposed to harmful air quality
  • Growing awareness and market for solutions
  • Impacts GDP, decision making, and health outcomes

Capitalizing on Megatrends

• Focus on adjacent opportunities
  • Example: Instead of making devices, create accessories for major devices
  • AirPods became Fortune 50 sized business
• Look for infrastructure plays
  • Air quality monitoring devices
  • Filtration systems
• Consider demographic-driven opportunities
  • Elder care facilities
  • Healthcare services
• Watch for patent expirations
  • Example: Viagra patent expiry led to successful D2C companies
  • Companies like Bluechu built $100M+ businesses

Strategic Considerations

• Think long-term (10-20 year horizons)
• Look for trends that are hard to reverse
• Consider societal-level changes
• Focus on markets with growing customer bases
• Watch for technological innovations that could disrupt trends