Faith vs Worry Metrics

A framework for evaluating whether to persist or pivot with a business by weighing metrics that give faith against those that cause worry.

Core Concept

• Ask yourself "What metric gives us the most faith?" vs "What metric worries us the most?"
• Use these opposing metrics to make decisions about continuing or pivoting
• Weigh the strength of positive signals against concerning indicators

Implementation Process

• Set clear time-boxed milestones upfront when optimistic
• Have honest conversations when milestones aren't hit
• Identify assumptions that were wrong or timelines that were underestimated
• Evaluate if incorrect assumptions are fatal or just need adjustment

Example Analysis

Using a company with low revenue but high retention:

• Worrying Metric: Only $42k revenue in year 4
• Faith-Building Metric: Of 52 customers, none are churning and all love the product
• Decision Framework: Weigh whether strong retention justifies continuing despite low revenue

Key Considerations

• Evidence strength matters
  • Strong faith metric: "52 customers love it and nobody's churning"
  • Weak faith metric: "That one guy told me he likes it"
• Fatal vs Non-Fatal Issues
  • Evaluate if concerning metrics reflect fundamental business flaws
  • Determine if positive metrics provide enough counterevidence
• Time Horizon
  • Set realistic timeframes for evaluation
  • Be willing to persist if strong positive signals exist despite slower growth

Red Flags

• Weak counterarguments to concerning metrics
• Making excuses rather than facing reality
• Inability to identify strong positive signals
• Relying on hope rather than evidence

The framework helps maintain objectivity by forcing explicit evaluation of both positive and negative signals rather than running purely on emotion or optimism.