Genius-Idiot Framework

A framework for evaluating business decisions through the lens of "genius or idiot," focusing on the strategic value versus execution risks.

Core Evaluation Criteria

• Initial announcement value vs actual execution value
• Return on investment and effort required
• Alignment with core competencies
• Brand/reputation impact

Case Study: Alex Lieberman's Putt-Putt Golf Course Acquisition Plan

The Genius Angle

• Marketing and personal brand value
  • Generated 2M+ impressions for similar real estate announcements
  • Creates interesting narrative beyond "newsletter guy" persona
  • Positions him as "fun and rich" entrepreneur

The Execution Risks

• Capital intensive business
  • Requires $1-2M+ investment for modest returns
  • Cash flow typically only 10-30% annually
• Operational challenges
  • Complex people management requirements
  • Day-to-day operations demanding
  • Pulls focus from core strength (newsletters)

Optimal Strategy Framework

• Maximize announcement value

  • Tweet initial interest
  • Share business economics research
  • Post photos of property tours
  • Create content around "new chapter" narrative

• Minimize operational commitment

  • Consider small ownership stake (5%) vs full acquisition
  • Use for content/brand building
  • Avoid full operational responsibility
  • Stay focused on core business strengths

Key Takeaway

Success depends on extracting maximum value from the announcement/content while minimizing actual operational involvement - "cross the line to genius, not idiot"