Conspiracy Size Test

A framework for evaluating conspiracy theories based on the practical challenges of maintaining secrecy, particularly focusing on the number of people involved and logistics.

Key Evaluation Criteria

  • Two main challenges that make conspiracies unlikely:
    • Secrets are very difficult to keep, especially over long periods
    • The more people involved, the harder it becomes to maintain secrecy

People Factor Analysis

  • Lower income participants increase risk of exposure

    • Security/corrections workers typically have limited options
    • Harder to convince them to maintain silence for decades
    • Financial incentives may not be enough for long-term secrecy
  • Military/Large Group Involvement

    • Large numbers (e.g., 100 infantry) make secrecy nearly impossible
    • Too many people to effectively control long-term
    • Higher risk of someone breaking silence

Real World Examples

  • Some conspiracies do exist and have been proven

    • OJ Simpson trial - Mark Fuhrman planting evidence
    • Shows smaller conspiracies with fewer people are more possible
  • Suspicious Cases

    • Epstein death had multiple unlikely coincidences:
      • Cameras stopped working
      • Guards left
      • Access to materials
    • Pattern of unlikely events increases suspicion

Framework Application

  • Evaluate based on:
    • Number of people who would need to be involved
    • Length of time secret would need to be maintained
    • Resources required to keep people quiet
    • Logistics of coordinating multiple parties
    • Ability to control information flow

The key insight is that while conspiracies can and do exist, they become exponentially less likely as more people become involved due to practical limitations of maintaining secrecy.

17:45 - 18:48
Full video: 50:32
SP

Sam Parr

Host of MFM and fitness influencer

Sam Parr is a serial entrepreneur and business media pioneer.

In 2016, he founded The Hustle, a business news media company that started in his kitchen with just $12 and grew to eight figures in revenue.

Sam led the charge in making newsletters popular when few believed in their potential.

After four successful years, he sold The Hustle to HubSpot, a publicly traded company. Now operating as HubSpot Media, The Hustle reaches 3 million readers daily, employs a team of nearly 100, and has been the launchpad for dozens of its staff to found their own media companies and newsletters.

Sam remains the host of the popular business podcast, My First Million, and continues to start and sell companies. He also co-founded Hampton, a highly vetted community for entrepreneurs, founders, and CEOs, and teaches people to write better through his platform, Copy That.

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