Bowling Lane Investing

A framework for successful investing that emphasizes risk management over chasing returns, inspired by the bowling lane analogy shared by Guy Spier.

Core Philosophy

• Focus on keeping the ball on the lane rather than hitting perfect strikes
• Prioritize avoiding catastrophic losses over maximizing gains
• Success comes from consistent compounding, not spectacular wins

Key Investment Principles

• Avoid the edges (catastrophic losses)

  • Set up portfolio to survive worst-case scenarios
  • Make decisions that enable long-term compounding
  • Don't jeopardize compounding for the sake of beating an index

• Play the infinite game

  • Investing is not about winning or losing in the short term
  • Less than 2% of funds survive long-term
  • Goal is to stay in the game rather than "win" it
  • Focus on compounding rather than beating benchmarks

• Risk Management

  • Structure portfolio to be "okay" even when you miss badly
  • Consider how decisions would play out if repeated indefinitely
  • Ask "if everyone did this, what would happen?"
  • Avoid "just this once" type decisions

Mental Models

• Bowling Lane Analogy

  • Success is keeping the ball on the lane
  • Better to avoid gutters than aim for perfect strikes
  • Use guardrails (risk management systems) when possible

• Drunk in a Bar Analogy

  • Investing is like stumbling around trying to find a drink
  • Not like a fighter pilot with precise targeting
  • Accept uncertainty and focus on staying in the game

Success Metrics

• Measure success by ability to compound over decades
• Focus on absolute returns rather than relative performance
• Judge decisions by their repeatability, not individual outcomes
• Consider long-term sustainability over short-term gains