Mature Trends Still Grow

Shaan Puri reflects on how even seemingly "mature" companies and trends still have massive growth potential ahead, challenging the notion that you're "too late" to invest or participate in established success stories.

Key Points:

• Personal Reflection from 2010:

  • Had an iPhone and recognized Apple's potential
  • Used Google/Chrome regularly and saw their dominance
  • Was an early Tesla shareholder (20x cheaper than today)
  • These companies seemed mature and established at the time

• Reality of Growth in "Mature" Companies:

  • Google grew from $5B to $55B in revenue since 2010
  • Similar growth patterns seen in Amazon and Facebook
  • 10x returns possible even from "established" companies

• Megatrends Have Extended Runways:

  • Internet as a whole
  • Mobile computing
  • Cloud computing (AWS example)
  • Megatrends consistently outperform expectations
  • AWS grows at startup speeds despite $40-50B revenue

• Investment Philosophy:

  • Simple, obvious strategies often work best
  • Don't need complex investment strategies
  • Peter Thiel advocates for obvious investment choices
  • Even when something feels "late," there can be massive upside

• Key Lesson:

  • Don't underestimate megatrends
  • Being "late" to established winners can still yield significant returns
  • Obvious success signals shouldn't be ignored
  • Simple investment strategies in clear winners can outperform complex approaches