Future Failure Analysis

A framework for identifying potential risks and failures by working backwards from a hypothetical future scenario where things didn't work out.

Core Concept

• Have people imagine meeting for a beer 6-12 months in the future after the project failed
• Ask them to explain what they think went wrong
• This approach bypasses defensive reactions and taps into genuine concerns

Why It Works

• Removes pressure of immediate decision-making
• People are more honest when discussing hypothetical past failures
• Creates safe space to voice concerns without feeling defensive
• Helps identify core risks and chief assumptions early
• Allows team to proactively address potential issues

Implementation

• Frame it as a casual conversation ("getting a beer")
• Set the scene in the future (6-12 months out)
• Start with "That idea was so cool, I can't believe it didn't work out"
• Ask what they think was the most likely reason for failure
• Use insights to create preventative measures and risk mitigation strategies

Benefits

• Identifies riskiest propositions in your plan
• Allows for upfront game planning around key risks
• Gets team thinking critically about potential pitfalls
• More effective than direct questions about current risks
• Helps avoid defensive responses about status quo

Key Principles

• Work backwards from failure
• Keep it hypothetical and future-based
• Focus on identifying core risks
• Use casual, non-threatening framing
• Turn insights into actionable prevention plans