Five Technology Adoption Groups

A framework for understanding how different groups adopt new technology, and why being an early adopter of emerging trends can lead to better opportunities.

The Technology Adoption Bell Curve (from earliest to latest)

• Innovators

  • The first to try new things
  • Actually figuring things out
  • Taking the biggest risks

• Early Adopters

  • Second wave of adoption
  • Quick to recognize potential value
  • Often seen as thought leaders

• Early Majority

  • First big chunk of mainstream adoption
  • More cautious but still relatively quick to adopt

• Late Majority

  • Second big chunk of mainstream adoption
  • More skeptical of new technology
  • Wait for widespread adoption before trying

• Laggards

  • Last to adopt new technology
  • Still using outdated technology (e.g., AOL email)
  • Resistant to change

Benefits of Being an Early Adopter

• Investment Opportunities

  • Get in early on trending technologies
  • Identify patterns before mainstream adoption
  • Better positioned to spot future trends

• Learning from Past Mistakes

  • Being wrong about technologies (iPhone, Snapchat, Bitcoin, Twitch) teaches valuable lessons
  • Helps develop better judgment for future innovations
  • Creates humility and curiosity about new trends

Strategy for Evaluating New Trends

• Lean into curiosity instead of dismissal
  • When seeing strange behavior, ask "why are people doing this?"
  • Study communities with different lifestyles
  • Look for patterns in what people mock (often becomes mainstream)

Examples of Early Adoption Patterns

• Meditation → Breathwork
• Jogging (1970s) → Nike
• Intermittent fasting
• Wearing masks (pre-COVID)
• Emerging trends:
  • Gene editing
  • Stem cell treatments
  • Blood platelet treatments