Game Selection Framework

A framework for selecting the right type of business to pursue, emphasizing that choosing the right game is more important than being the best player.

Core Philosophy

• More important to pick the right game than try to be the best player
• Being in top 25% of right game > being the best at wrong game
• Wrong game = small outcome or painful path even if successful
• Right game + decent performance = better overall outcome

Business Model Comparison

Challenging Business Types

• Social Networks

  • Extremely difficult to succeed
  • Very low probability of success

• Media Business

  • Higher odds of success
  • Much lower prize size if successful

• E-commerce

  • Constant supply chain/logistics headaches
  • Physical product complications
  • Customer returns and real-world problems
  • Slow iteration cycles (6 months for product improvements)
  • Old customers retain negative impressions of previous versions

Recommended Model: Software Business

• Key advantages:
  • Scalable
  • Improves over time
  • Instant updates to all customers
  • Sticky revenue potential
  • High switching costs for customers

Success Requirements for Software

• Low churn or negative churn (customers spend more over time)
• Large market selection
• Effective marketing machine
• 5-year timeline for figuring out the model
• Focus on reducing churn
• Build strong marketing capabilities

Important Consideration

• Must align with personal interests
• Need genuine excitement to sustain decade-long commitment
• Consider what you're willing to get good at over long term
• Balance between optimal business model and personal fit