Neighbor Method Polling

A French trader made millions betting on Trump's victory using an innovative polling method that proved more accurate than traditional polls.

The Neighbor Method Approach

• Don't ask people directly who they will vote for
• Instead ask "Who do you expect your neighbor to vote for?"
• People indirectly reveal their own preferences through this method
• More predictive than traditional polling methods

Implementation Process

• French trader commissioned a major US pollster
• Similar to how DNC/RNC commission private polls
• Specifically measured the "neighbor effect"
• Results showed overwhelming support for Trump vs traditional 50/50 polls

Why It Worked

• People are indirect and hesitant to reveal personal preferences
• Neighbor method captures:
  • Individual's own preferences
  • Their perception of what will happen
• Results showed "mind-blowing" favor toward Trump
• Predicted a Trump landslide vs media's "razor thin" predictions

Betting Strategy

• Identified mispricing in betting markets based on poll results
• Made specific bets on swing states
• Targeted states where polls showed closer race than reality
• Used neighbor method data to identify states with stronger Trump support
• Placed massive bets based on this conviction

Results

• Prediction proved correct
• Made significant profits from the bets
• Demonstrated potential superiority of neighbor method over traditional polling
• French trader concluded public opinion would have been better prepared if polls had used neighbor method