Buffett's Time In Market

The "Time in Market" principle is a powerful approach for long-term success in technology, inspired by Warren Buffett's investment philosophy.

Core Concept of "Time in Market"

• Warren Buffett's principle: "Don't try to time the market, focus on your time in market"
• Applied to technology: Maintain consistent interest in promising technologies regardless of current popularity
• Success comes from sustained commitment rather than jumping between trending topics

Real-World Example: VR Technology

• Most people abandoned VR after initial excitement
  • "Everyone got it, thought 'this is awesome, this is gonna change the world'"
  • Reality: Most VR headsets are now collecting dust
• Contrasting approach: Consistent commitment to VR despite market sentiment
  • Example of someone who regularly "co-works in VR" once a week
  • Attended VR conferences even when they were unpopular ("crickets")
  • Maintained interest based on technology improvement, not popular sentiment

Benefits of the "Time in Market" Approach

• Reduced competition in unpopular spaces
  • At VR conference: "It was like being the only girl at a prom"
  • Easier to stand out when fewer people are focusing on the technology
• Financial opportunities in neglected spaces
  • "The top 15 apps in the Oculus store - these three guys own three of them"
  • "They're printing money right now"
• Building specialized expertise over time
  • Becoming the expert in technologies before they become mainstream again
  • "You're the front line of this and you're the only people specializing in this technology"

Application Strategy

• Base interest on technological progress, not market hype
  • "Is the tech getting better or not?" vs. popular sentiment
  • Don't let interest fluctuate based on "VC or exits or anything like that"
• Commit to promising technologies for the long-term (5+ years)
  • "We just have to survive five years"
  • "We need time in market"
• Focus on solving fundamental technical problems
  • Work on "all these little tech problems" that need solutions
  • Build expertise in specialized areas (e.g., "spatial recognition," "gesture control")

Potential Outcomes

• Direct success: Building breakthrough applications
  • "If you make the breakthrough app... you get to win in the billions"
• Acquisition potential: Being bought for your expertise
  • Examples of companies bought for $100M+ despite not finding product-market fit
  • "Either you're gonna crack the app or they're gonna buy you because you've solved a bunch of gnarly problems"