Supersonic Jet Excel Model

A story about how a founder analyzed the feasibility of building a new supersonic jet by creating a simple spreadsheet, challenging conventional wisdom that it couldn't be done.

The Concorde's History & Problems

• Last supersonic passenger jet (ended ~2002/2003)

• Flight specs:

  • NY to London in 3.5 hours (twice as fast as normal)
  • Tickets cost $15,000
  • Small capacity (2-3 seats across)

• Key issues that killed it:

  • Fatal crash (tire rupture led to explosion)
  • Safety concerns
  • Heat problems (couldn't even paint it different colors)
  • Noise issues (sonic booms shattered windows)
  • Price problems
  • Limited routes

The Spreadsheet Analysis

• Created two main analysis tabs:
  • Cost model
  • Engineering assumptions
• Key finding: Only needed 30% improvement in:
  • Fuel efficiency
  • Other key metrics

The Logic Behind the Analysis

• Technology has advanced dramatically in 50 years:
  • TVs, phones, computers improved 3000%
  • Only needed 30% improvement for supersonic to work
• Original Concorde designed with:
  • Slide rulers
  • Wind tunnels
• Had Stanford professor validate the math:
  • Physics checked out
  • Engineering challenges possible but solvable

Initial Implementation

• Founder committed half his life savings
• Hired 6-10 people including:
  • Former Gulfstream chief engineer
• Project cost estimates:
  • Original Concorde: $1B (started at $20M estimate)
  • New project estimate: $200M

The analysis showed that with modern technology, making supersonic flight viable was more about challenging assumptions than solving impossible problems.