One Chart Business Analysis

A "one chart business" refers to opportunities that can be identified through a single, compelling trend chart showing clear market movement. Here's the framework for identifying and analyzing these opportunities.

What Makes a One Chart Business

• Simple trend that shows clear, aggressive growth
• Removes the need for complex analysis or overexplanation
• Demonstrates an obvious market shift or behavior change
• Should be sustainable, not just a temporary spike

Notable Examples

• Cremation Services

  • Grew from 10% to over 50% of funeral services
  • Clear upward trend in consumer preference

• Internet (Amazon's founding premise)

  • Growing at 23,000% annually in early days
  • Led Bezos to quit finance and start Amazon

• Homeschooling (Current Opportunity)

  • 40-50% year-over-year growth for 3 straight years
  • Compared to:
    • Public schooling: ~0-3% growth
    • Private schooling: ~7% growth

Business Implications of Trend Charts

• Previously niche markets become viable at scale
• Creates opportunities for new business models
  • Example: Microschools emerging from homeschooling trend
  • Out School growing rapidly due to trend
• Enables new service offerings
  • Example: Primer's operating system for microschools
  • Helps with compliance and school choice vouchers

Key Considerations

• Look for sustained growth over multiple years
• Consider if trend represents fundamental shift in behavior
• Evaluate if market size becomes meaningful at new scale
• Assess if traditional solutions become obsolete
• Look for secondary opportunities created by primary trend