Dogs Not Barking Framework

Amazon uses a strategic planning concept called "Dogs Not Barking" to identify hidden opportunities and potential issues by analyzing what's not being discussed. Here's the framework:

Origin & Concept

• Based on old Sherlock Holmes story about solving a crime through noticing a dog didn't bark
• Dog didn't bark during break-in because it knew the intruder - revealing it was an inside job
• Amazon adapted this into a strategic planning tool

Core Framework

• Used during annual planning sessions
• Key question: "What are the dogs that are not barking yet?"
• Focuses on identifying:
  • Important signals through absence of discussion
  • Potential opportunities being missed
  • Issues that aren't being surfaced
  • Hidden patterns that could reveal insights

Strategic Application

• Looks for what's not being said that could signal something important
• Analyzes gaps in current discussions or planning
• Helps identify:
  • Emerging trends before they become obvious
  • Potential problems before they surface
  • Opportunities others might miss
• Used to guide strategic decision making and planning

Value Proposition

• Helps catch issues early before they become problems
• Identifies opportunities others might miss by focusing on what's absent
• Provides different perspective for strategic analysis
• Forces leaders to think about blind spots and assumptions

The framework emphasizes looking beyond what's obvious or currently being discussed to find hidden insights through analyzing what's conspicuously absent from conversations.