Tech's 20-Year Adoption Cycle

Shaan Puri shares his perspective on how technology adoption and market timing works, using examples to illustrate how ideas often take longer to materialize than initially expected, but eventually become reality.

• The "Clear View vs Short Distance" Principle:

  • Just because you can see something on the horizon doesn't mean you're close to it
  • People often overestimate how quickly the future will arrive
  • Eventually, the vision does materialize, but timing is crucial

• Technology Adoption Pattern:

  • Ideas often fail in their first iteration (example: Webvan in 2000)
  • Same ideas succeed 15-20 years later with better technology (example: Instacart)
  • What's old becomes new and what's new becomes old in cycles

• Market Evolution:

  • Digital advancement doesn't necessarily eliminate traditional experiences
  • Both digital and physical experiences can coexist
  • Example: Despite digital growth, physical experiences like motels are booming due to nostalgia

• Technology Implementation:

  • The same core idea can fail and succeed based on timing
  • Success depends on having the right technological tools
  • Mobile phones and new tech enable old ideas to work in fresh ways

• Market Pendulum:

  • The world becomes more digital and on-demand
  • Simultaneously, people crave physical experiences
  • Both trends can exist and thrive simultaneously rather than one replacing the other