Business Idea Scoring Matrix

A framework for evaluating business ideas using three key metrics that multiply together for a score out of 1,000.

Core Assessment Metrics (0-10 scale)

• Profit Potential

  • Maximum possible outcome if everything goes perfectly
  • Consider the total addressable market
  • Evaluate best-case scenario returns

• Passion Level

  • Personal excitement about the idea
  • How motivated you are to work on it
  • Your genuine interest in the space

• Probability of Success

  • Likelihood of achieving the desired outcome
  • Realistic chances of execution
  • Market timing and competitive factors

Calculation Method

• Score each factor from 0-10
• Square each score
• Multiply all three together
• Results in final score from 0-1000
• Can adjust weightings based on personal priorities

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Don't filter primarily on probability of success
• Avoid dismissing low-probability, high-potential ideas too quickly
• Calculate expected value (probability × potential outcome)
• Consider that 1% chance at $1B = $10M expected value

Warning About "Good" Ideas

• Good ideas can be more dangerous than bad ones
• Bad ideas are easy to spot and dismiss quickly
• Good ideas often masquerade as great ideas
• Mediocrity is the real enemy because:
  • Wastes valuable time
  • Doesn't fail fast or succeed quickly
  • Creates slow, long-term mediocre outcomes