Success Control vs Scale

A framework for understanding the relationship between success and magnitude of success, based on observations of successful entrepreneurs and businesses.

Core Success vs Magnitude Principle

• Success itself is largely controllable and based on skill/effort
• Magnitude (scale) of success has large luck component
• Example: Entrepreneur will be successful either way, but luck/timing determines if outcome is $20M vs $800M

Key Components of Base Success

• Having core technical skills

  • Need to be great at something specific
  • Being a "generalist" often excuse for lacking real skills
  • Examples: coding, design, copywriting, sales

• Taking risks early

  • Taking meaningful risks before family/obligations
  • Getting early wins provides compound advantages
  • Harder to take big risks with more responsibilities

• Location matters early in career

  • Being in right geographic location crucial early on
  • Proximity is power - being close to successful people
  • Example: Moving to Silicon Valley vs staying in smaller market

Factors Affecting Magnitude

• Timing in market
• Right connections/network
• Being in right place at right time
• Circumstances outside direct control
• Example: Selling company right before vs after market crash

Common Misconceptions

• "Overnight success" is possible (contrary to popular belief)

  • Can happen in 3-6 months
  • Examples exist of rapid success stories
  • But still need foundation of skills

• People rarely change fundamentally

  • Past behavior predicts future behavior
  • Don't count on dramatic personality changes
  • Better to work with people already aligned

Framework Application

• Focus on controllable success factors first
• Build strong foundation of skills and experience
• Put yourself in positions to benefit from luck
• Don't confuse luck-based magnitude with core success capability
• Recognize which aspects you can vs cannot control