Expert Blindness Phenomenon

Guillermo Rauch discusses how experts often fail to recognize the potential of emerging technologies because they focus on current limitations rather than future possibilities. He uses JavaScript's evolution as a prime example of this phenomenon, where betting on seemingly limited technology created career opportunities.

Key Points:

• The "Worse is Better" paradigm:

  • Early internet technologies were sometimes constrained but more predictable
  • Markup languages that were "worse but better" became the successful foundation of the internet

• Technology evolution follows natural selection rather than intelligent design:

  • Brendan Eich (JavaScript creator) compared technology success to Darwinism
  • JavaScript started simple but evolved to become more sophisticated over time
  • It began as minimal code that could be inlined into markup to make HTML "slightly more alive"

• Expert blindness to evolutionary potential:

  • Early critics of JavaScript focused on what it couldn't do at that moment:
    • "It can't be fast"
    • "It can't be typed"
    • "It can't be correct"
    • "It can't scale"
    • "It can't have a module system"
  • These observations weren't technical limitations but temporal ones

• Creating opportunity through evolution:

  • Guillermo created career alpha by taking JavaScript seriously and adding capabilities
  • Example: His team created a function called "Class" to add object-oriented programming to JavaScript
  • This innovation stood out to Facebook and other Bay Area teams
  • By evolving JavaScript and betting on it, he created career asymmetry

• The pattern applies beyond technology:

  • Successful angel investments often have the same characteristics
  • Experts miss potential when they focus on current roughness ("look at how shitty the homepage looks")
  • Success comes from projecting what something will become in the future

• The result of this evolution:

  • "JavaScript has eaten the world" despite expert skepticism