Business Success Categories

A breakdown of different business paths and their potential outcomes, based on personal experience and observation.

Most Likely to Succeed: Real Estate

• Requires no luck, just hard work and execution
• Could achieve $10-20M net worth through consistent effort
• Predictable path to building wealth in 20s
• Downside: Not as exciting or dynamic
• Lacks dopamine rush of other businesses
• More slow-paced returns

Worst Idea: Social Media Apps

• Maximum difficulty level
• Highest luck factor required
• Trying to "catch lightning in a bottle"
• Potential reward would be incredible (like Twitter/YouTube)
• Very few success stories (can name all 5 guys who've done it)
• Not recommended despite potential massive upside

Medium Return: Ecommerce

• Mediocre playbook with pretty good chance of success
• Requires significant operational work
• Can definitely make it work with persistence
• Challenges include:
  • Facebook algorithm changes
  • Supply chain issues
  • Shipping container cost fluctuations
  • Inventory management
  • Need for lines of credit
• Most exciting in terms of immediate feedback
• Quick dopamine rush from seeing sales

Key Success Principle

• Choose the path with the most enjoyable journey
• Benefits of enjoying the process:
  • You keep doing it because it's fun
  • You get good at it because you keep doing it
  • You eventually win because you get good at it
• Focus on activities that don't feel like work
• Example: Content creation/podcasting if you enjoy learning and sharing

Modern Opportunity Areas

• Look for emerging fields with no established experts
• Examples:
  • Genomics
  • Biotechnology
  • Cryptocurrency
• Strategy:
  • Become an early expert
  • Network with pioneers
  • Invest in the space
  • Create content about the topic