Global Tech Salary Decline

Andrew Wilkinson predicts that the current high tech salary trend is temporary and will decline as companies expand their hiring globally, particularly to regions like India and the Philippines.

• Current Market Dynamics:

  • San Francisco companies are currently hiring in Canada for "cheaper" talent
  • Companies haven't yet fully tapped into global talent markets
  • Current high salary inflation is unsustainable

• Global Talent Assessment:

  • Workers in India and Philippines are "just as smart" as North American workers
  • International workers are often more motivated
  • Cost is approximately 1/5th or 1/6th of North American salaries
    • Example: $30/hour in India vs $150/hour for "entitled millennial"

• Key Predictions:

  • Work will become democratized across the world
  • Salaries will decrease as companies tap global talent pools
  • Better value proposition with international workers:
    • Higher motivation levels
    • Money means more to them
    • Often deliver better quality work

• Market Evolution:

  • This transition won't happen immediately
  • Companies will gradually realize the opportunity
  • Will fundamentally change the labor market dynamics

The core belief is that companies will eventually optimize for global talent at lower costs, leading to a significant deflation in tech salaries, particularly in high-cost markets like North America.