10X Business Projections

A framework for thinking bigger about business projections, based on Sam Altman's advice to Brian Chesky during Airbnb's early days.

Core Concept

• Change all M's (millions) to B's (billions) in your projections
• Add a zero to every number in your business plan
• Focus on 10x growth rather than incremental improvements

The Framework Applied (Airbnb Case Study)

• Brian Chesky initially projected $100M in revenue
• Altman told him to change projection to $1B
• Key reasoning from Altman:
  • Either you don't believe what you told me
  • I'm dumb and didn't understand
  • You don't know math
  • One of these must be true if you're thinking too small

Why This Works

• Forces founders to think bigger from the start
• Challenges self-imposed limitations
• Creates alignment between vision and execution
• Helps avoid settling for "good enough" outcomes

Implementation Guidelines

• Think about adding one zero to what you're doing each year
• Don't think beyond one zero at a time
• Focus on relentless execution toward the bigger number
• Use it as a tool to expand vision while maintaining practicality

Key Mindset Shift

• Move from incremental thinking to exponential thinking
• Challenge assumptions about what's possible
• Align team around bigger objectives
• Create urgency around ambitious goals