Windows vs Doors Framework

A mental model for evaluating business opportunities by distinguishing between clear versus unclear outcomes. Introduced by Sully and discussed in context of TikTok opportunities.

Windows vs Doors Framework

• Windows Opportunities

  • Can see straight through to the value on other side
  • Clear visibility of what's inside and potential outcome
  • Easy to understand the opportunity and potential return
  • Most people gravitate toward these opportunities
  • Lower risk but also lower potential for unique advantage

• Doors Opportunities

  • Opaque - can't see what's on other side
  • Unclear exactly what value lies behind door
  • Requires faith and willingness to explore
  • 90% of people walk by because they don't know what's inside
  • Higher risk but potential for outsized returns
  • Less competition due to uncertainty

Application Example: TikTok Content Creation

• Currently appears as a "doors" opportunity

  • Unclear monetization path
  • No proven business model yet
  • Many people dismiss it due to uncertainty
  • Could be highly valuable but requires faith

• Why it's promising:

  • Growing fastest of any social platform
  • Getting millions of views with low budget content
  • Similar to early YouTube/Twitch before monetization
  • Will likely develop multiple revenue streams
  • Early movers advantage while others wait for clarity

Key Insight

• Don't only pursue "window" opportunities where value is obvious
• Being willing to explore "door" opportunities can lead to unique advantages
• Need to balance portfolio between clear and unclear opportunities
• Major opportunities often start as "doors" before becoming obvious "windows"