Innovation Adoption Pattern

Sam Parr and Shaan Puri discuss how emerging technologies follow a predictable pattern from being dismissed as weird to becoming mainstream, with examples from Bitcoin and VR. They highlight the value of consistent interest in technologies regardless of market sentiment.

Key Points:

• The Pattern of Technology Adoption:

  • Technologies start with a small group of "weirdos" that others dismiss
  • Gradually, legitimate players start taking interest
  • The technology overcomes controversies and eventually becomes mainstream
  • People's reactions follow a pattern: "This product is dumb" → "People using this are dumb" → "Everyone's using this, I'm dumb"

• VR as a Current Example:

  • Most people have abandoned their VR headsets (collecting dust)
  • Mark Zuckerberg continues to invest heavily in the space
  • Their friend Furkan remains committed to VR despite it not being "hot" right now
  • At a recent VR conference, there were very few investors, making those who remained stand out

• The Value of Consistent Interest:

  • Furkan stays interested in technologies based on whether "the tech is getting better," not popular sentiment
  • He doesn't "let his interest go in and out based off of popular sentiment or VCs or exits"
  • This approach has led to success with early investments like Ethereum and building companies like Thirdweb

• Current VR Opportunities:

  • The top 15 apps in the Oculus store are "printing money"
  • Small teams can potentially make $10 million by specializing in this technology
  • Meta Ray Bans represent a practical AR/VR adjacent product that's gaining traction

• Lessons for Young People:

  • Focus on "time in market" rather than "timing the market" (Warren Buffett principle applied to tech)
  • Look for areas where you can maintain consistent interest regardless of hype cycles
  • The pattern of adoption is "life-altering" for those looking for opportunities