Success Patterns Become Predictable

The speakers discuss how success in business becomes more predictable and easier to achieve after years of experience, pattern recognition, and building confidence. They share personal insights about how their approach to business has evolved and why things seem to work more consistently now.

• Pattern Recognition Through Experience:

  • Like dating, you learn to recognize red flags and patterns over time
  • You develop better judgment about which opportunities to pursue
  • Learn to prefer "1-foot hurdles" instead of "10-foot hurdles"

• Keys to Consistent Success:

  • Stay within your circle of competence
  • Choose simple-to-execute projects
  • Avoid businesses that require lots of people or funding
  • Focus on "base hits" rather than moonshots

• Confidence Building Factors:

  • Surrounding yourself with successful people normalizes success
  • Understanding return patterns (e.g., "invest $1 to make $3")
  • Failure becomes seen as a normal part of the process
  • Success becomes more about "if" rather than "when"

• Time and Patience:

  • Success often comes slowly (reference to Warren Buffett making 97% of wealth after 55)
  • Requires being "underestimated and dismissed"
  • Playing a "boring game" while others chase quick wins
  • Compound growth over 15-20 years

• Investment Strategy:

  • Reinvest 70% of profits
  • Keep 30% for quality of life
  • Focus on steady returns (10-15-20% annually)
  • Prioritize predictable opportunities

• Risk Assessment:

  • Even with success, fear and risk awareness remain
  • Different kind of fear than early days
  • More calculated risks based on pattern recognition
  • Better ability to evaluate opportunities