Windows of Opportunity Framework

A framework for identifying market opportunities by looking at periods when multiple similar businesses succeed simultaneously, showing clear patterns of timing and market conditions.

Recent Example: Men's T-Shirt Companies (Last 4 Years)

• Multiple companies built $100M+ businesses selling basic men's t-shirts:

  • Cuts
  • Fresh Clean Tees
  • True Classic Tees
  • Built Basics

• Growth Examples:

  • True Classic Tees Revenue:
    • Year 1: $15M
    • Year 2: $90M
    • Year 3: $150M

Historical Example: Men's Health/Wellness (2017)

• Both Roman and Hims launched within months of each other
• Both became $1B+ companies
• Key factors that created the opportunity:
  • Patent expiration on key drugs
  • Telemedicine regulation changes
  • Proven market demand
  • New ability to prescribe without in-person doctor visits

Hims Growth Example:

• Revenue progression:
  • 2018: $27M
  • 2019: $83M
  • 2020: $140M (forecast)
  • 2021: $270M
  • 2022: $540M
  • 2023: $800M (projected)

Key Insights for Identifying Windows

• Big ideas are often hidden in plain sight
• Multiple successful companies can emerge simultaneously
• Opportunities often arise from:
  • Regulatory changes
  • Patent expirations
  • Technology shifts
  • Market timing
  • Consumer behavior changes

Success Patterns

• Companies often succeed with:
  • Simple, obvious solutions
  • Similar business models
  • Similar timing
  • Similar target markets
  • Similar growth trajectories

The key is recognizing these patterns when they're happening and acting quickly within the window of opportunity.