Tech Adoption Timing Paradox

A framework for understanding how technology adoption and development cycles work, particularly for emerging technologies like VR, AI, and crypto.

Core Technology Development Pattern

• Technologies typically take longer to develop than initially expected
• Early industry players often push technology before it's ready
• Pattern follows: Early hype → crash → people move on → quiet development → eventual breakthrough

VR Case Study Example

• Quest headset evolution shows the slow but steady progress:
  • Quest 1: Wireless but "kinda crappy"
  • Quest 2: Better, lighter, more powerful
  • Quest 3: Further improvements
• Current state:
  • 20M+ units sold
  • 5-10M monthly active users
  • Rivals gaming console adoption rates

Keys to Success in Emerging Tech

• Only one core rule: Survive
• Stay in the game with:
  • Great talent
  • Long-term mindset
  • Patience for technology to mature
• Don't need to:
  • Be first
  • Know everything
  • Raise the most money
  • Have the most users

The Adoption Paradox

• People underestimate how long development takes
• People overestimate how fast adoption will happen
• When technology finally hits, adoption happens very fast
• Example: Uber
  • Started as expensive black cars
  • Seemed limited in use initially
  • Now considered essential infrastructure in many cities

Success Strategy

• Focus on controlling what you can:
  • Can't control timeline
  • Can control staying in the game
  • Keep trying different approaches
  • Maintain enough runway to survive
• Build with small, committed teams who:
  • Share the long-term vision
  • Are excited about the technology
  • Are willing to persist through development cycles