Three Smart Mentions Rule

A key pattern recognition rule for identifying opportunities: when you hear about something interesting multiple times from credible sources, pay attention. Here's the framework shared in the podcast.

Core Concept

• Don't ignore signals when you hear about something interesting 3+ times from smart people
• Train your brain to recognize these patterns instead of dismissing them
• Look for opportunities that seem strange or irrational at first

Historical Examples Mentioned

• Twitter's Early Days

  • Seemed frivolous when people were just texting what they were eating
  • First PM joined because he recognized strange behavior patterns worth investigating
  • Became massive despite initial skepticism

• Twitch/Gaming

  • Initially dismissed as "dorky" behavior watching others play games
  • Turned into massive streaming platform
  • Lesson: Should have investigated why people enjoyed watching others play

• OpenAI

  • Sam Altman left prestigious YC president role for AI nonprofit
  • Smart billionaires putting $100M into research company
  • Signal was: "smartest guy in Silicon Valley left best job for this"

Current Examples (2023)

1. AI Companionship

   • Character.ai getting 200M visits
   • 33-minute average visit duration
   • Exceeding major news site traffic
   • Strange behavior pattern worth investigating

2. Wounded Unicorn Acquisitions

   • Multiple smart people discussing buying failed startups
   • Companies with $5-10M revenue but won't be unicorns
   • Opportunity to buy assets cheap when they can't raise next round
   • Heard from: Andrew Wilkinson, Xavier/Siava, Jeremy Giffen

Key Takeaway

• Don't write off strange or inexplicable behavior
• When you see unusual patterns, lean in to understand them
• Value signals come from smart people mentioning opportunities in passing, not from news/hype cycle
• Look for "fat pitch" opportunities that aren't yet consensus