2% Privacy Adoption Rule

A discussion about privacy-focused products and their market potential, centered around DuckDuckGo as a case study.

Market Size Context

• DuckDuckGo: 62 million queries per day
• Google: 3.5 billion queries per day
• DuckDuckGo is roughly 2% of Google's size

The 2% Rule for Privacy Products

• Only about 2% of users typically value privacy enough to switch products
• Need to target massive markets for the 2% to be meaningful
• Examples of successful privacy plays:
  • Search engines (DuckDuckGo)
  • Email (Hey.com, Superhuman)
  • Products everyone uses globally

Key Success Factors

• Must target mainstream products
  • "You need a product that's used by pretty much everybody"
  • Avoid niche products - "that's a niche of a niche"
• Market size must be large enough that 2% is significant
  • Like email: "you don't need that many users to build a billion dollar company"
  • Example: Superhuman charging $30/month for premium email

Privacy Trend Analysis

• Privacy concerns are growing over time
• Catalysts for increased privacy awareness:
  • Repeated data breaches
  • Fake news concerns
  • Declining trust in big tech
  • Multiple small incidents that stack up
• Generational considerations:
  • Question about whether younger generations (Zoomers) care about privacy
  • Shifting attitudes as people get older

Business Model Viability

• Can still monetize without personal data
  • Example: DuckDuckGo still shows ads based on search intent
  • Don't need personal data for relevant advertising
  • "The slight drop off you get by not personalizing is not so bad if that can become your value proposition"