Developer Activity Signals Crypto

Anthony Pompliano shares his perspective on crypto investment strategy, particularly around Solana, emphasizing the importance of following developer activity and market psychology rather than purely technical analysis.

Key Investment Philosophy:

• Developer Activity as Signal:

  • Following where developers are going is a strong investment strategy
  • High development activity shifting to certain platforms indicates future value

• Market Psychology:

  • Buy what others will buy tomorrow, today
  • Be "contrarian that becomes consensus"
  • References George Soros: "When I see a bubble, I rush in"

• Position Building Strategy:

  • Don't sell everything to buy new position
  • Start with small position ($48 Solana)
  • Double down when market confirms thesis (bought more at $55)
  • Convert fully when confident (sold ETH for SOL at $73)
  • Buy dips if thesis hasn't changed (bought at $80 during 30% drawdown)

• Selling Strategy:

  • Focus on cycle timing rather than price targets
  • Crypto is more about "where are we in the cycle" than valuation metrics
  • Consider timeframes (end of year, beginning of next year) rather than specific prices
  • Short-term vs long-term holdings:
    • Some assets like Solana are shorter-term plays (1 year horizon)
    • Others like Bitcoin are "hold forever" assets

• Market Dynamics:

  • Smaller market cap assets likely outperform in bull markets
  • Bubbles go bigger and further than expected
  • Timing markets is "nearly impossible"
  • When asset goes up 100%, resist assumption it will double again