Inaction Risks Underestimated

Kevin Ryan shares insights about risk assessment in business decisions, particularly emphasizing the often-overlooked dangers of moving too slowly or not acting at all. His perspective is shaped by decades of launching successful companies like DoubleClick, MongoDB, and Business Insider.

Key Points:

• Risk Assessment Mindset:

  • Most people understand the risk of doing something
  • People consistently underestimate the risk of not doing something
  • Time is never on your side in business

• Speed to Market:

  • Any good idea will have 3-4 competitors within 6 months
  • Moving quickly is essential to capture market share
  • Being first can create lasting advantages

• Real World Example - DoubleClick:

  • Expanded to 25 countries before first country was profitable
  • Aggressive expansion created competitive advantage with major clients
  • Result: Secured commanding market share that persisted 25+ years later
  • Google maintained this advantage after acquisition

• Investment Philosophy:

  • Don't wait to validate in one market before expanding
  • Accept initial losses for market dominance
  • Being able to fund losses is crucial for this strategy

• Decision Making Framework:

  • Consider both action and inaction risks
  • Speed of execution often more important than perfection
  • Market position can be more valuable than early profitability

• Modern Application:

  • Good ideas will have competition quickly
  • Market leadership often goes to first movers
  • Being cautious can be more risky than being aggressive

This perspective challenges conventional wisdom about careful, measured growth and suggests that aggressive expansion, while risky, can be less dangerous than moving too slowly in competitive markets.