French Trader's Trump Betting Profit

A story about how a French trader made $80 million betting on Trump in the 2024 Republican primary using an innovative polling strategy.

"There was this French trader who made an $80 million profit betting on Trump. Initially, people noticed several large bets on Polymarket coming from what looked like 4 big accounts betting $28 million. Later, the trader revealed he actually had 11 accounts and bet around $40-50 million total.

What made this interesting was his strategy. He commissioned his own private polls in America, but with a twist. Instead of asking people who they were going to vote for, he used what's called the 'neighbor method.' He had pollsters ask people who they expected their neighbors to vote for. His theory was that people don't want to reveal their own preferences, but if you ask about their neighbors, they'll indirectly reveal their true beliefs about what's going to happen.

When he got the results back, they were 'mind-blowing' in favor of Trump. While the media and public polls were saying it was a 50-50 razor-thin race, his polling showed it would be a Trump landslide. He saw this as a mispriced betting opportunity and placed massive bets, not just on the overall victory but on specific swing states where he thought Trump's margin would be larger than public polls suggested.

He was right, and he ended up making $80 million in profit from this strategy."