Investigate Strange Behavior

A key insight about recognizing and capitalizing on opportunities by paying attention to seemingly strange or irrational behavior patterns, rather than dismissing them.

Core Principle

• When you see inexplicable or irrational behavior, lean in to understand it rather than dismissing it
• Strange behavior patterns often signal emerging opportunities that others miss
• The natural reaction is to label and write off unusual behavior - this is a mistake

Real World Examples

Twitter's Early Days

• Initial behavior seemed frivolous - people texting what they were eating
• Easy to dismiss as pointless activity
• Those who investigated deeper saw the underlying social phenomenon
• Became one of the largest social platforms

Twitch/Gaming

• Initially seemed irrational - watching others play video games
• People downloading 8-hour replays to watch gaming
• Easy to label as "dorky" or waste of time
• Evolved into massive streaming platform worth billions

OpenAI

• Sam Altman left "best job in Silicon Valley" (YC President) for AI nonprofit
• Billionaires putting $100M into research company
• Seemed strange at the time
• Became one of the most valuable companies in tech

Current Examples to Watch

1. Character.ai

• Massive traffic (200M visits)
• 33-minute average session time
• Higher traffic than major news sites
• People spending significant time chatting with AI
• Could signal major opportunity in AI companionship space

2. Wounded Unicorns

• Growing trend of buying failed/struggling startups
• Companies with $5-10M revenue but won't be unicorns
• Can be purchased cheaply due to lack of exit options
• Multiple smart investors independently identifying this opportunity
• Not yet consensus but showing clear pattern

Key Takeaway

• Don't ignore repeated signals of strange behavior
• When you hear about unusual trends multiple times from smart people, investigate
• Look for opportunities before they become consensus
• Value lies in understanding behavior others dismiss