Testing Beats Intuition

Sam Parr and Shaan Puri discuss Super Bowl advertising strategies, with a strong emphasis on testing and measurable results over intuitive big bets. They analyze various marketing approaches and their effectiveness, particularly focusing on the ROI of Super Bowl advertisements.

Key Points:

• Testing Over Big Bets:

  • Preference for testing multiple ad concepts on social platforms first
  • Run variations on TikTok/YouTube to see which performs best
  • Use data to inform major advertising investments

• Super Bowl Ad Performance Analysis:

  • Coinbase QR code ad results:
    • 20 million site visits in one minute
    • Only 300% increase in downloads over previous week
    • Questioned if results justified the massive investment
  • Critical view of reported "success metrics":
    • App store ranking jump from 168th to #1 viewed skeptically
    • Success metrics often don't justify the high cost ($7 million for 30 seconds)

• Alternative Marketing Strategies:

  • Organic/Native Marketing Opportunities:
    • Gatorade bath moment - free exposure during peak viewership
    • Disney World victory quote - paid but feels natural
  • Creative Low-Cost Approaches:
    • Reddit's 5-second ad strategy
    • Using tension and "will it or won't it" moments
    • Creating viral-worthy moments without celebrity endorsements

• Marketing ROI Perspective:

  • Skepticism about traditional "successful campaign" metrics
  • Focus on actual conversion rates over vanity metrics
  • Preference for measurable, scalable marketing approaches over one-time big splashes

The overall point of view emphasizes a data-driven, testing-based approach to marketing over intuition-based big bets, even for major events like the Super Bowl.