14-Year Tech Opportunity Cycle

James Currier (NFX) describes a pattern of major tech opportunities that occur cyclically, creating windows for transformative companies to be built.

Core Theory

• Major tech waves happen every ~14 years
• Each wave has a 24-36 month maximum opportunity window
• Current wave is centered around generative AI
• 65% of all AI investment is happening in San Francisco

Historical Wave Examples

• Mobile wave: 2009-2012
• Internet wave: 1999-2003/2004
• Current AI wave: 2023+

Key Success Factors During Waves

• Speed of execution is critical during the window
• Being in San Francisco/Bay Area provides advantage due to concentration of activity
• Need to trade ideas and strategies with other builders
• Should invest in each other and work on projects together
• Important to focus intensely during these brief windows

Community Aspects

• Underground community of startups forms around each wave
• Builders need to be physically present and connected
• Important to share knowledge and collaborate
• Network effects happen through in-person connections
• Being in the room with other builders increases odds of success

Strategic Approach

• Move as fast as possible during the window
• Focus completely on the opportunity
• Trade ideas openly with other builders
• Take advantage of geographic network effects
• Recognize the limited time nature of the opportunity

The message emphasizes that these windows only open briefly and requires founders to move quickly and be physically present in tech hubs to maximize chances of success.