Bezos Doubling Rate Framework

A framework for identifying business opportunities by analyzing exponential growth trends, inspired by how Jeff Bezos identified the internet's 2,300% growth rate to start Amazon.

Core Concept

• Look for trends growing at exceptional rates ("nothing outside a petri dish grows that fast")
• Focus on riding existing waves rather than creating them
• Use growth trends to hedge business decisions
• Identify where "water is flowing" before building

Research Methodology

• Collect data from multiple sources:
  • Industry reports
  • Trend websites
  • Google Scholar and academic publications
  • Leverage undergraduate/graduate research papers

Data Analysis Framework

• Track key metrics for each trend:
  • Doubling time
  • Growth rate
  • Direction (increasing/decreasing)
  • Time span
  • Root causes
  • Potential effects

Example Trends Identified

• Sports betting revenue

  • Doubling time less than 1 year
  • $4.3B revenue in US since 2018 legalization
  • Still only legal in limited states

• Cybercrime damages

  • 7x growth in 5 years
  • Expected acceleration with AI
  • Limited current solutions

• French Bulldogs popularity

  • Doubled in 5 years
  • Now #1 breed in AKC
  • Creates opportunities for specialized products

Implementation Strategy

1. Identify fast-growing trends
2. Analyze second and third-order effects
3. Look for business opportunities within trend
4. Consider regulatory and market dynamics
5. Build solution that rides the trend

Key Insight

• Basic ideas are cheap and mostly indefensible
• Success comes from identifying and riding massive trends
• Focus on trends before building products
• Know your customer and space better than anyone else