Fat Pitch Opportunities

Shaan Puri shares his perspective on identifying "fat pitch" opportunities - significant business opportunities that are visible but not yet mainstream. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing patterns in what successful people are discussing before these opportunities become consensus.

Key Points:

• Pattern Recognition in Opportunities:

  • Listen for ideas mentioned multiple times by credible sources
  • Pay attention when smart people mention opportunities "in passing"
  • Don't wait for mainstream news coverage to validate the opportunity

• Current Fat Pitch Example: Wounded Unicorns

  • Companies that raised venture capital but won't become billion-dollar businesses
  • Generate revenue ($5-10M) but can't raise next round
  • Can be acquired cheaply because they lack exit options
  • Original founders often prefer to shut down rather than restructure for profitability

• Signs of a Fat Pitch:

  • Multiple smart people independently mentioning the same opportunity
  • Not yet part of the consensus view
  • Clear evidence of potential (like significant user metrics)
  • Opportunity for arbitrage or value creation

• Common Mistakes to Avoid:

  • Dismissing strange behavior without understanding it
  • Waiting for mainstream validation
  • Missing opportunities due to initial skepticism
  • Not acting on identified opportunities

• Action Steps:

  • Identify 2-3 fat pitch opportunities at any given time
  • Research and validate the opportunity
  • Consider ways to capitalize on the opportunity
  • Move quickly before it becomes consensus

• Real World Example:

  • Character.ai getting 200M visits
  • 33-minute average visit duration
  • Demonstrates massive user engagement despite seeming niche
  • Indicates larger opportunity in AI companionship space