Dogs Not Barking Framework

A framework for identifying blind spots and potential issues by paying attention to what feedback or signals are mysteriously absent, inspired by the Sherlock Holmes story about "the dog that didn't bark."

Core Concept

• Based on Sherlock Holmes' observation that absence of expected reaction (dog not barking) can be more telling than present signals
• Used at Amazon in executive operating plans to identify potential issues
• Focuses on finding what should be happening but isn't

Two Key Applications

1. Missing Expected Feedback

• Monitor when expected reactions don't occur
• Example: No complaints when regular service is interrupted
• Use absence of feedback to evaluate importance/impact
• Test removing elements to see if anyone notices
• Goal: Create something so valuable its absence is immediately noticed

2. Anticipating Future Problems

• Look for problems that should exist but haven't surfaced yet
• Identify potential issues before they become apparent
• Get ahead of problems by anticipating them early
• Focus on what's suspiciously quiet or smooth

Implementation Strategy

• Regularly ask "What are we stupid for not doing right now?"
• Look for obvious solutions hiding in plain sight
• Question when things are too quiet or smooth
• Pay attention to areas where feedback should exist but doesn't
• Use absence of signals as data points for decision making

Key Questions to Ask

• What feedback should we be hearing but aren't?
• What problems are certainly there but haven't surfaced?
• What obvious solutions are we missing?
• Which areas are suspiciously quiet?
• What would people miss if it disappeared?