Betting On Decade Trends

Kevin Ryan, founder of multiple billion-dollar companies, shares his framework for identifying and capitalizing on 10-year trends that transform industries.

Core Philosophy on Trend Analysis

• Focus on where the world will be in 10 years, not next year
• Look for unsolved problems in society that need fixing
• If something's happening next year, it's already too late
• Identify trends early and bet on them before they're obvious

Current 10-Year Trends Worth Betting On

• Healthcare transformation

  • Many structural issues remain unsolved
  • Costs are significantly higher than other countries with worse outcomes
  • Prevention and maternal health need major improvements

• Automation and Labor

  • Labor costs continuing to rise ($15/hr → $20-25/hr → potentially $30/hr)
  • Cost of technology decreasing
  • Companies will need to find ways to use less labor
  • Example: Remote drivers for rental cars instead of on-site staff

• Psychedelics for Mental Health

  • FDA approval process ongoing
  • Potential for legal use in therapy
  • Opportunities in research and treatment development

• Other Key Areas

  • Semiconductors and material science
  • Developer tools
  • B2B marketplaces
  • Social impact initiatives
  • Robotics and automation

Research Process

• Conduct deep dives into potential areas

  • Spend 2-3 months researching
  • Interview 50+ people in the industry
  • Create detailed 50-page decks
  • Attend industry conferences
  • Talk to existing investors in the space

• Look for Problems That Need Solving

  • Avoid saturated markets (e.g., ecommerce)
  • Focus on industries with clear inefficiencies
  • Find areas where current solutions are inadequate

Implementation Strategy

• Start with $1-1.5M initial investment
• Build strong teams around the opportunity
• Be willing to raise significant capital if the idea proves viable
• Focus on scalable solutions that can grow for 10+ years
• Look for opportunities to be first or early in the market

Key Indicators of a Good 10-Year Trend

• Clear structural problems in the industry
• Rising costs or inefficiencies
• Technology enabling new solutions
• Regulatory changes on the horizon
• Market size large enough to support major companies
• Current solutions clearly inadequate or outdated