90-9-1 Development Pattern

A development pattern observed in technology projects where difficulty increases exponentially as you approach completion. This was discussed in context of robotics and AI development.

The 90-9-1 Rule Breakdown

• First 90%

  • Relatively easy to accomplish
  • Creates impressive demos
  • Makes people think the whole project will be simple
  • Gives false sense of progress

• Next 9%

  • 10x harder than the first 90%
  • Reveals unexpected challenges
  • Examples from transcript:
    • Dispensing almonds (easy) vs dispensing crumbly feta cheese (10x harder)
    • Tesla autopilot working normally vs handling edge cases like flashing yellow lights
    • Basic robot movements vs precise control

• Final 1%

  • Another 10x harder than the previous 9%
  • Often involves critical edge cases
  • Examples mentioned:
    • Self-driving cars needing 100% reliability, not just 99%
    • Handling all possible weather conditions
    • Dealing with unexpected scenarios

Real World Impact

• Makes project timelines unpredictable
• Creates false expectations from early demos
• Software development saying mentioned: "90% done means halfway done"
• Edge cases often determine success or failure of the technology
• Public acceptance requires near-perfect reliability

Business Implications

• Early demos can be misleading for investors
• Need to plan for exponentially increasing difficulty
• Must account for much longer development time than initially expected
• Success requires pushing through the hardest final stages