Train Returns Theory

The "Train Returns" theory suggests that major investment and business opportunities often present themselves multiple times, giving people second chances to capitalize on them. This concept was mentioned by Kevin Van Trump in relation to missing and catching big opportunities.

Core Concept

• The best opportunities, investments, and trends often come back around for a "second time"
• People who miss the first opportunity often get another chance
• Even getting in "late" can still lead to significant returns
• Missing the first wave shouldn't stop you from taking advantage of future opportunities

Real World Examples

• Bitcoin

  • People who missed buying at $150 could have bought at $500
  • Those who missed $500 could have bought at higher prices
  • Even "late" entries at higher prices led to significant returns when Bitcoin reached $60,000

• Facebook/Meta

  • Missing early private investment opportunities
  • Stock market dips provided new entry points
  • Public market volatility creates new opportunities

Key Principles

• Don't get stuck lamenting missed opportunities
• Stay alert for when the "train comes back around"
• Second entry points may be at higher prices but still offer significant upside
• Great opportunities have long runways that allow for multiple entry points

Application

• Look for opportunities in market downturns
• Watch for second waves in trending sectors
• Don't assume you've completely missed out on an opportunity
• Be ready to act when familiar opportunities present themselves again

Mindset Shift

• Move from "I missed it" to "When will it come back around?"
• Focus on recognizing patterns rather than regretting past decisions
• Understand that timing doesn't have to be perfect to be profitable
• Great opportunities often have multiple entry points over time