Market Evolution Predictions

A framework for analyzing market evolution and identifying opportunities based on Sam Rattner's approach to predicting industry changes and finding value.

Core Analysis Process

• Write out detailed predictions of how market will evolve over time
• Look for pieces of evolution that others avoid due to:
  • Being capital intensive
  • Being a headache to execute
  • Requiring difficult regulatory compliance
• Focus on opportunities that have inherent barriers to entry
• Analyze how big players will respond and position accordingly

Key Questions to Ask

• How will early players enter the market?
• Which established companies will eventually dominate?
• What technology gaps exist in current solutions?
• Where are the regulatory/compliance hurdles?
• What infrastructure needs to be built?

Value Finding Framework

• Look for "duck calls" - niche opportunities others overlook
  • Hidden ecosystems with dedicated communities
  • Regional or location-specific opportunities
  • Complex or difficult-to-find opportunities
• Identify areas where existing solutions are outdated
  • Old technology that hasn't been updated
  • Poor mobile experiences
  • Lack of API functionality
• Search for opportunities that are:
  • Too complicated for others to find
  • Regionally specific
  • Require special licensing or compliance

Execution Strategy

• Build infrastructure others won't want to recreate
• Get through regulatory compliance early
• Secure key partnerships and licenses
• Position for eventual acquisition by larger players
• Focus on opportunities that can scale beyond initial market

Validation Process

• Research regulatory requirements thoroughly
• Talk to industry veterans and experts
• Study how overseas markets have evolved
• Look for similar patterns in other industries
• Calculate potential market size and growth

Red Flags to Watch For

• Easy-to-enter markets with no barriers
• Opportunities requiring constant physical presence
• Markets without clear paths to significant scale
• Businesses that can't reach $1B+ in 5 years
• Opportunities requiring relocation to remote areas

The key is finding opportunities others avoid due to complexity or difficulty, while ensuring there's potential for massive scale.