Market Success Triangle

A breakdown of how successful companies pick the right market, timing, and execution team, illustrated through examples of Flow app and other successful businesses.

Key Elements of Market Success

• Requires 3 critical components:
  • Right target market
  • Right timing
  • Right people to execute
• Most companies fail by not getting the first two right (market and timing)
• Market and timing create the "rising tide" that helps lift the business

Common Mistakes in Market Selection

• Entrepreneurs often prioritize in wrong order:
  • Focus too much on product first
  • Then think about team
  • Consider market last
• Better approach is to find amazing market first, then build good enough product
• Example: Coinbase succeeded despite early technical issues because:
  • Picked right market (crypto) before it was trendy
  • Users tolerated poor product due to strong market demand

Identifying the Right Market

• Look for underserved markets rather than obvious ones
• Find markets that seem like "bad ideas" but are actually good
• Avoid oversaturated trending markets (like current AI space)
• Example: Flow app success
  • Identified women's health as massively underserved
  • Half world's population had this problem
  • Few talented builders working in space
  • Grew to $192M ARR with 60M active users

Timing Considerations

• Enter market before it becomes obviously attractive
• Example: Flow founders started in 2008 when app store launched
• Being early in emerging market > entering established competitive market
• Look for markets that will be "AI" in 3 years rather than current AI markets

Execution Team Requirements

• Need right people who can execute once market and timing are right
• Focus on hiring good people and letting them build
• CEO's job is to "build the company that will build these products"
• Success comes from combination of all three elements working together