25-Year Innovation Cycles

A discussion about how scientific breakthroughs follow a pattern of unpredictable major discoveries followed by predictable improvement cycles.

Pattern of Scientific Breakthroughs

• Major breakthroughs are extremely hard to predict
• Once breakthrough happens, improvements follow a ~25 year cycle pattern
• Example: Flight Technology Evolution
  • 1903: Wright Brothers achieve first flight
  • Every ~25 years after saw major improvements
  • Progress from dangerous early planes to modern safe commercial aviation
  • Now: Planes are safe, comfortable, reliable transportation

Current Scientific Challenge: Longevity Research

• Currently seeking breakthrough in mice studies
• After breakthrough expected timeline:
  • 15-20 years to develop human therapy
  • Goal: Extend healthy life by 20-30 years
• Current status:
  • No major breakthrough yet
  • Been ~100 years with minimal progress
  • Main causes of death still cancer and cardiovascular disease
  • Need breakthrough before predictable improvement cycle can begin

Death Causes Pattern

• Main causes remain consistent:
  • Cardiovascular disease (#1)
  • Cancer (#2)
  • Influenza (#5)
• Most deaths fall into two categories:
  • Non-transmissible (internal body issues)
  • Transmissible (passed between people)
• Future outlook:
  • Eventually these causes will be eliminated
  • Just a matter of when breakthrough happens
  • Similar to how other previously fatal conditions were solved